Tropical Storm Watch for Cape Cod
The storm track is more or less locked in at this point for Dorian. There may be some subtle deviations within 50 miles or later in the forecast, which would most definitely be a concern for Nova Scotia as the storm track is very close to the Halifax metropolitan area. I've mentioned here the thoughts that southeastern Massachusetts could see tropical storm conditions, and the National Hurricane Center made that idea official overnight by issuing a Tropical Storm Watch for Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, Buzzards Bay and area islands.
The storm will slowly work through the Carolinas Thursday and Friday. It appears to latch onto the cold front that passes through New England on Wednesday and ride along it as it heads to Atlantic Canada.
The storm track also coincides with the warm gulf stream waters, which may help to keep the storm at hurricane level as it heads for Nova Scotia.
The track of this storm runs similarly to that of Hurricane Earl back in 2010. The storm brought tropical storm force winds to Cape Cod and Islands, dumped 6" of rain on Edgartown, and over 4" of rain to Machias.
That is pretty much the scenario that is going on here. The heaviest rain will be for southeast Massachusetts and Washington County, Maine. Accumulations of 2-5" of rain is safe bet at this point. Wind speeds of 40-60 mph for Cape Cod, and 25-50 mph for Machias/Eastport/Lubec area certainly appear possible.
The ocean is going to be boiling. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Maine. A gale watch is likely to come for the waters near land. Waves of 9-14' are possible for areas between Eastport and Schoodic Point. For the southwest coast, seas of 8-11' are predicted on Saturday.
For those who head to the coast to watch the wave action, remember to watch from a safe distance as heights can be unpredictable. Please respect the power of the ocean.
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Eight year forecaster.