March to roar in like a lion
As I mentioned on Facebook earlier Friday, the storm pattern is beginning to shift as we start meteorological spring. While the mountains and north have received incredible snow amounts through the winter, the coastal areas get in on the game after dealing with repeated mix precipitation events. For those longing for spring, we have more winter to get through before we cross the finish line not only in the form of snow, but also with cold.
Slick spots for coastal areas Saturday
Two parts to what happens on Saturday. First, low pressure works passes south of New England during the day. Second, an inverted trough potentially flares up in the wake of the storm Saturday evening. Most of the snow appears to be on the ground after the first wave, but I cannot rule out a potential for a bonus dusting to an inch from the inversion.
This is yet another "fringe" storm situation, which brings some bust potential. With cold air in place and storm track, the areas closest to the shorelines are likely to receive the higher totals. Folks in the western mountains may see some light accumulation from the inversion, but it does not appear to be a plowable event. For those running a sander, you may want to be ready to operate just in case.
Monday storm looking impressive
Still time for changes, but the idea of a solid snow event for much of the state appears likely. Model ideas are still vary in track, and for the coast, that is critical for accumulation outcome. One thing for sure is the model ideas have indicated a progressively colder outcome, which raises snow totals. One thing guidance agrees on is there is plenty of moisture associated with the system, so what falls is likely to be abundant. Due to lack of blocking to the northeast, the storm passes through the region in roughly 18 hours, but when it comes, it's going to dump.
I have adjusted the projected snowfall map factoring in potential mix along the DownEast coast. Immediate shorelines southwest of there down toward Portland to Kittery may see a coastal front develop which may knock totals down in the 4-8" range. If the track of the storm moves further southeast, this will be an all snow event for the coast. It won't take much of a track shift to do that. I suspect there could be many double digit snowfall totals coming out of this event. Stay tuned.
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Outlook through Wednesday
After the snow leaves us on Monday, below normal cold filters in as we head into the middle part of the week. Temperatures modify a bit as we head into next weekend. As long as it stays cold, the risk for snow remains on the table, which may come roughly next Saturday.
NOTE FOR SATURDAY: I will be traveling out of state, so I may not update here again until Sunday. I will do my best to post some thoughts on Twitter and/or Facebook.
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Always stay weather aware!
Eight year forecaster.