Ski country is loaded up Late Wednesday afternoon Sugarloaf announced they had reached the 30" mark for the storm which began on Monday afternoon. They could end up with 3 feet by the time it ends Thursday morning. I am hearing folks up that way have lost power due to the volume of snow dragging down trees and power lines in the Eustis area. The snow machine will shut down soon, and hopefully those in the dark will get power back soon. The wind is going to pick up on Thursday, with gusts 15-25+ mph, which may cause blowing and drifting of snow, as well as hinder power restoration.  National Weather Service estimates on snow still to come from 4 PM Wednesday through tomorrow morning indicates higher elevations with another 3-6" to come. I am going to eat a bit of crow on this one. I seriously underestimated this one in the higher elevations of western mountains by a foot and a half. Incredible accumulations. And this is only November. Looking ahead to the weekend and next week Sunday will be the next system on the way which may start off as ice in the interior but appears for now to change to rain as a warm front kicks through, followed by snow showers from a trailing cold front on Monday. This isn't a big precipitation producer as is appears for now. We'll keep track and see if that idea stays the same, and whether or not cold air damming gets the last laugh on precipitation type for the foothills and mountains as the event gets closer.  There are two signals to watch as we head into next week. First comes around the Tuesday / Wednesday time frame. With the trailing front dragging cold air into the state Monday, that sets the table for a snow event for at least interior areas. Outside of that, there isn't a whole lot of answers to many questions at this point.  I usually do not like to put the cart this far ahead of the horse but since this idea fits the pattern we are heading into, I will pass along for future reference that the region may be dealing with another storm the second weekend in December. A lot of time for this to change, but something to keep in the back of your minds as we head into next week. Outlook through Monday For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. Your support is valued and appreciated!Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going through the year ahead. My data cost expense is increasing. The operation is 80% funded and needs your help to get through the winter. You can set up a monthly pledge on my Patreon page or send me a message from the Facebook page or direct message on Twitter to get my address to mail a check.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support! - Mike Snowvember Rolls On An upper level low will remain parked over the region through Wednesday before moving southeast of the state. The result will be continued snow accumulation in the mountains and north and risk of a shower over southern and eastern areas through Wednesday night.  Model generated idea of additional snow to come shows potential for upwards of a foot or more. As the surface low spins itself out, temperatures will get cooler and allow for more fluff factor. Expect continued tricky travel in the north and mountains through Wednesday. Regional outlook through Sunday Snow showers are likely to continue around the higher elevations Thursday morning and then dissipate towards the afternoon. The next system of concern approaches Saturday evening into Sunday morning which may bring another icing period for interior areas. Stay tuned. For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. Your support is valued and appreciated!Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going through the year ahead. My data cost expense is increasing. The operation is 80% funded and needs your help to get through the winter. You can set up a monthly pledge on my Patreon page or send me a message from the Facebook page or direct message on Twitter to get my address to mail a check.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support! - Mike Winter Storm Warning posted for the interior A quick update to Sunday's post on a few minor details. Timing of the storm remains on course with conditions deteriorating Monday evening over western areas and continuing overnight into eastern and northern areas. This is mainly a rain event for the shorelines, although a few flakes may mix in. The main slug of precipitation tapers Tuesday afternoon over southern and eastern areas, but snow showers will persist over western and northern areas through Wednesday, and for the mountains into early Thursday.  Wind is going to be the main concern for the coast as the storm approaches the region Monday night into Tuesday. Areas west of Penobscot Bay should see the wind begin to diminish by noon Tuesday, east by mid to late Tuesday afternoon.  Snow map revised to show full duration totals with a some minor tweaks. I am still on board with no accumulation for the shoreline towns and cities, but the gradient levels will increase sharply over the interior.  All in all a healthy snow event for the north country, which is great news for winter weather enthusiasts. For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. Your support is valued and appreciated! Every Saturday morning I get caught up on the bookkeeping to see where I am at. I am about 80% covered for year as it stands right now, which is amazing. You folks have stepped up, which really means a great deal to me. I've known that I have been working on something special for quite awhile now. The towns listed above have at least one donor. Some have two or three. The support from out of state is the real eye catcher. I get overwhelmed when I read the notes that are mailed with checks to my home. I am truly honored and blessed by your faith and belief in me. I love doing this for you folks. So long as I am funded, I will keep doing it.
The final 20% of fundraising is always the most difficult. If you have not as of yet, I ask that you please consider it during this season of giving. You can message me through the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page or tweet me so I can give you my mailing address. You can also set up for a monthly donation on my Patreon page if that works for you. For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support... it is truly an honor. - Mike Track will be key for this one Low pressure rides up along the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and rides along the Maine coast and intensifies in the process. Since this is a "coastal hugger" type storm, snowfall amounts are expected to be minimal along the coastal plain, and more of a concern for interior areas. Given the close proximity of the track, this is likely to be a heavy wet snow in most areas, which will be a concern with gusty winds on Tuesday. The storm track brings it near Rockland / Penobscot Bay region, which is always a challenge factoring in snow totals and associated ratios to go with them. Timing Western and southern areas begin to see precipitation break out Monday afternoon and is likely to advance over eastern and northern areas overnight into Tuesday morning. Southern areas sees rain or rain/snow mix taper to showers Tuesday afternoon, and Tuesday evening for eastern areas. Off and on showers are expected to continue over the coastal plain into Wednesday. Snow in various intensity will continue over northern and western areas Tuesday night through early Thursday. Wind and heavy snow could bring power outages As the storm overspreads the region, the wind picks up along with it. A Flying Trash Can Alert will be in effect all day Tuesday for those towns that have curbside trash pick up. The heavy snow along with wind gusting 25-35+ mph over the interior is likely to cause power outages. As the storm weakens, wind begins to drop heading into Wednesday. Snowfall Since the storm track appears to make landfall around the Rockland / Penobscot Bay region, eastern areas will be on the warm side, and western areas on the cooler. The ski hills will be the jackpot areas where totals may flirt with 2 feet by the time all is said and done Thursday morning. While this will be a heavy snow Tuesday, it will become more lighter as the storm weakens and pulls away Wednesday into Thursday. Northern Maine will get heavier snow Tuesday afternoon into the evening, and likely top out in the 8-12" range by Wednesday morning. Regional outlook through the work week For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. Your support is valued and appreciated! Every Saturday morning I get caught up on the bookkeeping to see where I am at. I am about 80% covered for year as it stands right now, which is amazing. You folks have stepped up, which really means a great deal to me. I've known that I have been working on something special for quite awhile now. The towns listed above have at least one donor. Some have two or three. The support from out of state is the real eye catcher. I get overwhelmed when I read the notes that are mailed with checks to my home. I am truly honored and blessed by your faith and belief in me. I love doing this for you folks. So long as I am funded, I will keep doing it.
The final 20% of fundraising is always the most difficult. If you have not as of yet, I ask that you please consider it during this season of giving. You can message me through the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page or tweet me so I can give you my mailing address. You can also set up for a monthly donation on my Patreon page if that works for you. For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support... it is truly an honor. - Mike Forecast remains tricky for Sunday Winter Weather Advisories have been posted for the southern two thirds of the state as of the time of this post Saturday afternoon. This forecast remains a tough call for the reason noted in Friday's update of two low pressure systems splitting off and Maine being caught in the middle. There is a good chance for some slick areas early Sunday morning. Forecast confidence is good on that. How much ice depends on surface temperatures. We've seen this movie many times before where cold air digs in and holds on longer than expected. Don't be surprised if it happens again. The blessing in this set up is there isn't a whole lot of moisture associated with this, so I do not expect any issues with long duration icing.  Precipitation begins in western and southern areas likely before daylight Sunday. It will overspread all areas but the far north by early afternoon. Beyond that, confidence is lower for areas of snow Sunday afternoon. If the front stays together, it will be bring some snow over the central part of the state. If it falls apart, there could be a few flakes in areas, maybe an inch in the western mountains and eastern parts of the central highlands and DownEast areas, but that is about it. Precipitation ends from southwest to northeast Sunday afternoon into the wee hours of Monday.  IF the front holds together, there is potential for a couple inches of snow for the northern two-thirds of the region. This continues to be a wait-and-see situation given the dynamics here, so make sure you stay updated on the latest forecast information. Snowy times ahead starting Monday A deep trough over the eastern half of the country and associated upper level energy spinning around within it touches off yet another system on the heels of the Sunday event. Strong high pressure over Labrador acts as a block. The results of all of that is several pieces of energy spinning off several areas of low pressure which will rotate around the region until later in the week. The main concern will be for Monday night through Tuesday for the bulk of the snowfall, but northern, western and perhaps eastern areas are likely to see additional amounts through Thursday morning as it appears for now.  This will be a plowable event for the state, and is likely to cause travel impacts between the falling snow and wind blowing it around. Coastal areas may get lesser amounts due to mixing. This could be a heavy wet snow for much of the region pending on forecast track. Stay tuned. Regional outlook through Thursday For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going through the year ahead. My data cost expense is increasing. The operation is 75% funded and needs your help to get through the winter. You can set up a monthly pledge on my Patreon page or send me a message from the Facebook page or direct message on Twitter to get my address to mail a check. For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support! - Mike Recent snow and cold the table setter for Sunday Pardon me for being Captain Obvious to start this update off about the recent cold. However, it is important to note going forward that this will be a factor in the forecast going forward. We have a firm snow pack over the vast majority of the state. Anything that comes in liquid form may cause some problems, and that idea is on the table for Sunday. A very complicated set up to end the weekend A warm front is going to try to nose into the region late Saturday. A coastal low forms to the southwest and runs into the blocking high to the northeast. Maine is caught in between two storms splitting off with cold air locked in. A cold surface, a warm atmosphere, liquid precipitation freezes on contact. This is going to be one of those "wait and see" situations for Sunday morning. The temperatures by Sunday morning will dictate icing risks. Given the nature of the system, there is a chance for measurable sleet with the system. There is also the chance for snow in the mountains where a couple inches are possible. The game at this point is not only in surface temperatures, but also where the split occurs. Some model ideas split it off early, bringing little to no accumulation. Others like this one bring enough to be concerned about. I am siding with concern at this point. There likely will be enough precipitation to slick surfaces in areas, and for travel in areas away from the shorelines Sunday morning. Then there is snow likely Monday into Tuesday That blocking high is still stuck over Labrador. A stronger frontal boundary and intensifying low pressure moves eastward Monday into Tuesday. This is a track game for coastal areas of whether this falls as rain/mix to snow, a mix to snow, or all snow. Interior areas should plan on all snow, and a plowable event at that. It could be plowable for all areas by the time Tuesday morning rolls around.  Your support is valued and appreciated!Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going through the year ahead. My data cost expense is increasing. The operation is 75% funded and needs your help to get through the winter. You can set up a monthly pledge on my Patreon page or send me a message from the Facebook page or direct message on Twitter to get my address to mail a check or set up bill pay.
For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support! - Mike New for winter: snow squall warnings Snow squalls are winter's version of severe thunderstorms. For years the National Weather Service would issue Special Weather Statements, but unless one was paying close attention, those alerts went unnoticed. New to this year, NWS will be issuing Snow Squall Warnings, like they do Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. If you have a smartphone app from a reliable company, listen to terrestrial radio, or carry around a NOAA Weather Radio with alert function, you will be notified when these dangerous squalls develop. This is especially important for those who are travelling. If there is an alert issued for the region you are driving in, the suggested action to take is to pull over to the side of the road and wait for the squall to pass. Snow squalls can cause whiteout conditions from blowing snow and make the streets and highways slick with rapidly accumulation snow. In summer, severe storms are usually a hit or miss situation. Some places get them, some do not. Storm Prediction Center issues risk levels and areas of potential. In this case, we don't have criteria for risk levels. We're not going to have a Snow Squall Watch issued. When it happens, it may catch you by surprise. You know about the potential, because you read this. With Wednesday the busiest travel day of the year, many folks will be on the roads travelling to see family and loved ones. Snow squalls are in the forecast, and it would be wise to stay on alert for bulletins and take appropriate action for safety. Chance for squalls for most of the state An arctic frontal boundary will work through the state Wednesday afternoon and is likely to bring snow snow squalls along with it through the evening. Expect rapidly changing road conditions, gusty wind, and whiteout conditions. If you encounter a squall while driving, pull over to the side of the road, put your hazard lights on, and await for the squall to pass. Be aware that these squalls are especially dangerous after dark, and there is that potential given the timing of these. Thanksgiving to be one cold turkey Much of the northeast is likely to set new record high temperature maximums for the date. Record low temperatures surprisingly appear not in jeopardy, so having cold air around this time of the year isn't completely uncommon. Forecast highs in the mountains are likely to stay in the single digits and teens are likely for the coast, but it isn't going to feel that way.  Wind chill advisory is likely for at least the mountains and north country Wednesday night into Thursday morning as wind chill values may bottom out -10° to -20° or worse in areas. Wind gusts could range 25-35 mph with some 40 mph gusts possible at higher elevations. Folks headed to the ski hills should be aware that delays on higher elevation trails are entirely possible. As the air mass works in, wind will begin to decrease late Thursday night into Friday morning. Bundle up, and be prepared to deal with the freezer burn conditions. Outlook through the weekend A few snow showers are possible Thursday morning in the higher elevations as the arctic high builds in. Keep in mind areas where there is powdery snow, it may blow around and cause drifting on roadways, so keep that in mind as you travel. The region stays precipitation free until Sunday, and temperatures gradually warm up through the long weekend. Your support is valued and appreciated!Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going through the year ahead. My data cost expense is increasing. The operation is 75% funded and needs your help to get through the winter. You can set up a monthly pledge on my Patreon page or send me a message from the Facebook page or direct message on Twitter to get my address to mail a check or set up bill pay.
For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support! - Mike Snowy, but manageable Let's cut to the chase with this one. This is more or less a garden variety light to moderate snow event that will likely be more annoying than anything else. The main threat areas will be for the coastal plain, although areas in the foothills of southern Oxford and southern Franklin counties may get in on the action, too. Southwest coastal areas may see steady moderate snow in the 4 AM to 10 AM which will then become light. The time frame for moderate snow along the entire coastal plain in the afternoon runs from around 1 PM to 7 PM west of Penobscot Bay, 4 PM to 10 PM for DownEast areas. Once it shuts off, it's over. This isn't anything the plow crews should have a whole lot of difficulty with. Sure, it could be greasy on the secondary roads in areas, but if caution is used, folks should be able to get around alright.  The best bet for higher end snow totals appears to be interior York County and coastal DownEast areas. The further north and west, lesser amounts. This event ends in western areas between 7-9 PM, eastern areas by midnight. Wednesday looks squally As the Tuesday system departs, a weak low spins through the region Wednesday which may bring scattered snow squalls. Some of these snow squalls may cause whiteout conditions and drop a quick inch or two of snow. Not everyone is going to get one, but enough snow may drop in areas where crews will get called out to treat the roads. The main threat occurs Wednesday afternoon into the early evening. The mountains may see squalls linger into early Thursday. The Big Thanksgiving Chill After the weak low pulls away on Wednesday, the coldest air of the season arrives and it's going to hurt. We're used to seeing double-digit below zero wind chill in January. I can't believe I am using the Freezer Burn graphic this early! Folks hitting the slopes are going to want to bundle up. There may be delays on openings of the peak trails due to wind gusts around 30 mph. It is likely to be breezy through the day. High pressure settles in Friday which will shut the wind down, but teens are the best to expect for high temperatures for the day for the north country. Your support is valued and appreciated!Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going through the year ahead. My data cost expense is increasing. The operation is 75% funded and needs your help to get through the winter. You can set up a monthly pledge on my Patreon page or send me a message from the Facebook page or direct message on Twitter to get my address to mail a check or set up bill pay.
For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support! - Mike Nothing major, but something to watch Monday morning sees a chance for some spotty snow showers as a weak system quickly moves eastward. It may be potent enough to drop between a dusting to 2" from the foothills and central highlands to the coastline. Some areas of the shorelines may see a switch to rain warm air moves in off the water and creates a coastal front as the system passes through. Expect some slick spots and allow for extra time as you travel. Tuesday may be a bit more robust, however.  Another disturbance generates to the south of the region and passes through the area Tuesday afternoon. I will be right out front with this and say there is uncertainty on just how much snow comes with this one. The American models (NAM/GFS) are a bit more aggressive with snow amounts than their European and Canadian counterparts. The differences lie in the track of the system, with the Euro / Canadian further offshore, and the American models bringing the system closer to shore.  I think it is safe bet that the coastal plain will receive snow the afternoon on Tuesday, which would likely impact the evening commute. Due to uncertainty, there is a fair amount of bust potential, meaning snow amounts may decrease or increase pending on how this plays out. These clipper systems are a bit tricky to forecast and could be a surprise, either with over or under performance. Be prepared either way for a greasy, slow evening commute. Snow showers return Wednesday primarily for western, eastern and northern areas with potential for an inch or two. That system will the front ahead of the coldest air mass to date in time for Thanksgiving. It will be a windy and bitterly cold holiday. The weekend appears to be quiet until Sunday where there is a potential for a storm as we head into the last week of the month. It's too early to provide anything definitive. Personal note Alcohol and drug addiction has touched the lives of many of us, and it has me. November 18, 1991 is a day where my life changed when I finally surrendered to my problem and asked for help to deal with the issue. I felt helpless, hopeless, shameful, guilt-ridden and disgusted. My life was nearly destroyed as a result of this by the time I was 22 years old. Looking back on it now, I should have been dead, gone, and buried. In surrendering, I was able to get help from many and reinvented my life through God's Grace that I wouldn't trade for anything. For those that are struggling, there is hope and there is a better way. Reach out. Ask for help. The assistance is there, and you may be pleasantly surprised just how much of it is available. It is totally worth it. It's been 27 years for me. If it is possible for me, it's possible for anyone, no matter the age. The Maine Alliance for Addiction Recovery is a wonderful resource for assistance options or by calling the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration 1-800-662-HELP (4357) 24/7/365 to talk to someone. It is completely worth it. Your support is valued and appreciated!Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going through the year ahead. My data cost expense is increasing. The operation is 75% funded and needs your help to get through the winter. You can set up a monthly pledge on my Patreon page or send me a message from the Facebook page or direct message on Twitter to get my address to mail a check or set up bill pay.
For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support! - Mike A bit of personal news before the update. Those of you who have followed closely for the past few months have been aware of all the changes that have gone on with the unexpected losses of my sister-in-law, brother-in-law, most recently the loss of my wife's aunt in September, my father-in-law's health, and our relocation from Poland to Kennebunk. There has been a lot that has gone on in two years. We're blessed that while there has been a lot of tragedy and change, much good has come out of it. We're in the process of moving my father-in-law to Kennebunk to be with us permanently, which is a total gift from God. If all goes well, he will be with us just before Thanksgiving. Amen to that. I am going to take advantage of the quieter pattern this week to focus on family along with working on some projects, and getting some rest before the pattern amps up again. This cold weather isn't leaving us. With that cold will come chances for snow events. I'll keep my eye on this and provide updates as the week unfolds. A bit of snow here and there through the week We're back into the west to east zonal flow pattern as it appears over the next week. A couple of weak disturbances Sunday night into Monday and Wednesday may bring a dusting to an inch or two of snow in the ski hills. Wednesday would be a bit of a concern since it is the traditional travel day and it could be a bit dicey in areas, but completely manageable with proper driving techniques. High pressure works in for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Small Business Saturday. High temperatures are expected to range in the 20s & 30s through Wednesday, then dip to the teens & 20s for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Low temperatures will range from the single digits to teens in the north and teens to low 20s south. Stay tuned for changes, but confidence is good that we won't have any storms causing any major disruptions until possibly late next weekend. Faith is moving mountains... Every Saturday morning I get caught up on the bookkeeping to see where I am at. I am about 80% covered for year as it stands right now, which is amazing. You folks have stepped up, which really means a great deal to me. I've known that I have been working on something special for quite awhile now. The towns listed above have at least one donor. Some have two or three. The support from out of state is the real eye catcher. I get overwhelmed when I read the notes that are mailed with checks to my home. I am truly honored and blessed by your faith and belief in me. I love doing this for you folks. So long as I am funded, I will keep doing it.
The final 20% of fundraising is always the most difficult. If you have not as of yet, I ask that you please consider it during this season of giving. You can message me through the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page or tweet me so I can give you my mailing address. You can also set up for a monthly donation on my Patreon page if that works for you. For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. Always stay weather aware, and thank you for your support... it is truly an honor. - Mike |
Mike HaggettSeven year forecaster. Archives
December 2018
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