Enjoy the foliage while we have it Many places in the north country hit peak foliage for the Columbus Day Weekend, and the rest of the state is following rather quickly. While southern areas may get one more taste of "Indian Summer" on Wednesday, northern and western areas are likely done with anything close to 70° until next spring. As I mentioned in an earlier post here today, a stormy period is ahead. Temperatures gradually crash through Wednesday These types of cold fronts are typical in spring and fall around these parts. Wednesday will be a classic day where Frenchville / Fort Kent will struggle to get to 50° while Fryeburg / Portland south will be headed to the beach. Temperatures gradually drop over northern, western and eastern areas through the day, and for southern areas, into the evening. It will be temperature whiplash for southern areas especially between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. Some scattered showers for the day... even some sleet. As the front sags south, it won't come gracefully. I suspect there will be a few thunderstorms in the mix for western and eastern areas in the afternoon as the boundary filters downward. I can't rule out a potential isolated strong to severe storm in the midst of it given the sharp temperature difference. Whether or not southern areas get any of mother natures fireworks depends on the progress of the front, which knowing how cold air tends to be slow in moving may quell the threat. Regardless, there is a chance, so be on alert in case something develops. As temperatures drop, folks in the Saint John River Valley may get a touch of sleet and/or snow as we head into Thursday morning, pending on how quickly the mid to low levels of the atmosphere cool off. While this may come as a bit of a shock, we're about on time for some amount of wintry precipitation being measured in the roof top region. Your support is appreciated! Thanks to the generous contributions of several followers with their checks and Patreon support, I have been able to pay to keep the website going for another year. I am still short on paying the bills for the weather data and graphics that I use to make this as professional an operation as I can. My yearly budget is $3,300 and I am at about $2,200 in funds raised so far. I would love to reach my yearly goal before the holidays kick into high gear. Since you folks have blessed me with your financial support, I would like to pay part of it forward to some folks in need. I can do that with your help. I have faith that the goal will be reached with your support. Please message me on Facebook or Twitter about sending a check, or you can set up a MONTHLY donation on my Patreon page. Thank you!
For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine. For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Always stay weather aware! - Mike Status Update I apologize for the lack of updates. I am dealing with a touch of some sort of virus which left me flat on my back on Monday. I am going to do a synopsis update here as that is all I can muster at this point, so bear with me as I take care of myself. The tropics and October A look at the key players over the next several days via water vapor. A strong ridge to the east, a deep trough over the west. Leslie is still churning well to the south/southeast of Maine. Michael is barreling for the Florida panhandle, and Sergio is stirring the waters southwest of Baja California.  A look at the 500 mb height map shows the upper atmosphere a bit better defined. A bit of a squeeze play going on between the deep trough in the west and ridge over the east, with Michael threading the needle between the two. This a very typical set up for fall with the Arctic cooling off and sinking southward, and warm air trying to hold onto superiority but is slowly being eroded away.  Surface map shows some subtle differences between the upper air and terra firma, but all the players are here.  The 500mb put into motion shows Leslie moved well away to the east. The strong high over the east coast contracts allowing Michael to enter into the Florida panhandle and cross over Georgia and the Carolinas. Sergio gets caught in the vacuum and is drawn into Baja California and will bring rains to the southwestern parts of the country.  The surface map view shows Michael's progress through the southeast states, getting caught in a cold front that -may- take it out to sea away from Maine. Moisture from Sergio enters into the southwest and gets caught in a frontal boundary that may bring precipitation to Maine later next week. Michael's progress up the eastern seaboard will have to be monitored closely. The potential skunk in the long range forecast is the position of the cold air in Canada. Models, despite their latest "upgrades" are still not handling cold air well. Given the close shave to southern New England, and slowdown in the advance of the trough to the south could bring the storm system closer to Maine as we approach the weekend. At the very least, Maine will likely receive some high surf from this storm. Stay tuned... High Impacts for the Florida Panhandle While Michael is likely to be a major hurricane at landfall, the one thing going for it is that it appears to be a fast mover. Projected landfall puts it around Panama City with winds 110-120 mph around midday Wednesday. The north and eastern quadrants of the storm are the main areas of concern, as always due to wind and rainfall. While it will be a quick mover, it will pack quite a punch. Areas of the Carolinas still dealing with flooding and damage from Florence will get more rain and wind, which are things that area could live without. Heavy rain, severe storms and tornadoes will all be a concern as the storm impacts land areas before it exits the Outer Banks on Friday. Stay in touch with the National Hurricane Center for the latest information from them. Stay Updated! For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. Always stay weather aware! - Mike A weekend for peeping Most of the state is looking good for foliage, and this will be a good weekend to check it out. Saturday could be a bit breezy and a bit cloudy in the north and west as a weak front approaches in the afternoon. The chill on the way will assist color in southern areas as next week unfolds.  Pick your spots, take your camera and enjoy the peace and scenery. It's a beautiful time of the year. A couple of chilly mornings ahead Friday and Saturday mornings appear to feature some nippy starts. It will be a bit breezy in the north country as high pressure moves in Friday morning. The breeze settles down as the day progresses. That sets up a chilly start for Saturday with a good portion of the north country at or below freezing, and 30s for much of the coastal plain. Bring in the mums, cover any plants if necessary. Surf from Leslie to impact the shorelines High tides Friday (9 AM / PM) and Saturday (10 AM / PM) could bring some splash over in low lying or prone areas as waves from Leslie reach the area. Curious viewers should respect the ocean, understand that the waves could be unexpectedly large at times, and caution should be used while enjoying the show.  All in all, a bit on the cool side, but a pleasant stretch through early next week. A frontal boundary may bring a light shower over the north Saturday night into early Sunday, but that is about it for rain until later next week. Stay updated! For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. Always stay weather aware! - Mike Relatively quiet pattern ahead High pressure over New England slides offshore Wednesday night. A weak warm front sneaks in overnight, followed by a weak cold front passing through the area Thursday. Canadian high pressure moves eastward for the weekend. Best chance for showers north and west Thursday Any chance for a light shower would be remote for most of the morning. The front approaches Thursday afternoon bringing scattered showers for the north and mountains, and widely scattered showers for the south and east. Precipitation ends from northwest to southeast early to late evening Thursday night. Finish stacking the firewood We've already had a couple of chilly mornings over the state, and there will be a couple more on the way this weekend. Friday morning starts off with 30s over the northern and western areas. Saturday morning features 20s for a fair amount of the interior and 30s close to the shorelines. If you are still growing, plan on covering your plants Thursday and Friday nights. High pressure keeps Leslie out to sea After the cold front passes through Thursday night, high pressure takes over Friday and Saturday. A weak front may bring some isolated shower activity Saturday night into Sunday morning, but the rain risk appears very low. Another Canadian high trails the front, bringing another cool night Sunday and dry conditions for Monday. As I mentioned in last night's update, surf from Leslie is likely to affect the New England shorelines this weekend. With astronomical high tides from the approaching new moon, splash over and minor flooding is possible. Stay tuned for possible statements from the National Weather Service. It may be late next week before another widespread rain event of any substance affects the region. On a side note, there is a chance for something tropical to generate over the southeast and western Caribbean given the pattern. Keep tabs on all things tropical with the National Hurricane Center. Five Day Outlook through Columbus Day For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. Always stay weather aware! - Mike Nationwide Wireless Emergency Alert Test Wednesday For those with mobile devices, expect an odd sound and vibration at 2:18 PM as a nationwide test is being conducted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) will conduct radio tests soon after. For those who are not informed of this, expect a few laughs, some surprises, perhaps some choice vocabulary, and a chance for dropped phones. Please share this with your friends and family so they are not caught off guard. Rain totals inching northward Not including the rain on Tuesday, much of northern New England, upstate New York and Cape Cod areas are running at a rainfall deficit. Rainfall has been increasing as of late, and for most of the area, its one solid soak away from normal totals for the year. I know there is plenty of anxiety out there on ground water resources which is justified from the abnormally dry spring. October is a long month, and will likely be stormy at times as they usually are. Stay tuned. Leslie to bring surf Leslie has been spinning around and around the Atlantic for days and will likely continue to for a while yet. The ocean is an atmospheric traffic jam and with the warm water and plenty of moisture, the storm will cause an inconvenience to the shipping lanes and cause some surf for the shorelines. With the weather looking good for the weekend, the waves will be great for observation and photography. High tides are roughly in the 9 AM/PM hour on Saturday and 10 AM/PM hour on Sunday. Tides are rising this weekend due to the new moon, and could cause some splash over in low lying areas. PLEASE respect the power of the ocean, enjoy from a safe distance, and be aware of the wave activity. 5-Day Outlook through Saturday As far as rain chances go, Thursday is the only daytime period of concern through the next five days. The main area of shower activity will be for northern and western areas, but a few isolated showers could make it to the coast Thursday afternoon. Another weak frontal boundary passes through Saturday night which may bring a light shower over northern and mountain areas again overnight, but that appears to be gone by Sunday morning. A peek at Columbus Day indicates a virtual carbon copy to Sunday, but a bit cooler. Stay updated! For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. Always stay weather aware! - Mike Low pressure moving along A weak frontal boundary moves through the region this morning with low pressure moving westward into the state this afternoon into the evening Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are possible this afternoon into the evening. The heavier rain comes in late afternoon into the evening for all but northern areas. The system is moving progressively, meaning it appears to end from west to east by around daylight on Wednesday.  No real changes on projected rainfall amounts, with coastal and mountain regions likely to achieve the most from this event. Northern areas of the state get nuisance showers out of this, but that appears to be about it.
High pressure noses into the region on Wednesday bringing drier conditions. Showers approach northern areas Thursday morning. All areas appear to have a risk of a shower as a long wave cold front slides through, but there is not much moisture associated with it. I will update the forecast later today. - Mike Improvement late week While cool and gloomy, the rain is much needed. I know many folks are still struggling with water supplies, whether for personal or agricultural. While not a soaking stretch, what comes will help. Now that we are into October, this is typically the start to a more stormy period as cold air to the north works south. I don't have to remind you of the big storms the region had to deal with in Octobers past. Plan on at least one happening before we flip the calendar to November... and prepare for it. Pattern holds through the week This upper air pattern pictured here from midday Monday has been rather steady over the past few days. While it will wobble north and south a bit, it won't change a whole lot through the end of the week. The region is the meat in the sandwich between the warm to the south and the cold to the north.  Fast forward to Thursday and it won't change a whole lot. The winter cold in the north will try to nose south, but the blocking ridge to the south keeps it in check. What is occurring is disturbances along the flow will continue to slowly erode the ridge over the coming week. The results are periods of unsettled weather, with a chance for storms of significance along the coast. Riding the boundary through the week These west to east zonal patterns don't normally give the region much rainfall, but the boundary appears to be south enough for western and coastal areas to see some beneficial rainfall Tuesday into early Wednesday. Low pressure forming along the boundary near the Great Lakes could bring some enhanced shower activity Tuesday night into the wee hours of Wednesday. The region will have a bit of break Wednesday afternoon before a cold front arrives Thursday, but rain from that appears minimal as the boundary dissipates as it approaches the region. High pressure returns on Friday. The weekend appears at this point to start off dry, with northern and mountain areas potentially seeing showers on Sunday.  Conservative estimates on rain amounts indicate a half inch to one inch total from 8 AM Monday through late Thursday for much of the southern two-thirds of the state. Coastal areas and the mountains could over perform from this idea pending on track and intensity of the low Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Regional Outlook Through Saturday Our high temperatures appear cooler than normal for much of the period with the exception of Thursday. Overnight temperatures run above normal for southern areas through the period, with the rest of the state running at or below normal through Saturday. Stay Updated! For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. Always stay weather aware! - Mike Pattern more and more like fall As September is about ready to close, the pattern of zonal systems, stalled frontal boundaries, and cooler temperatures appears on the horizon. The days are getting shorter, the Arctic is becoming more active, and the heat dome which pumped well over a months worth of steamy days and nights the past few months is slowly beginning to erode. The sum total of all of these atmospheric ingredients is that an unsettled period is ahead as we march into October.  We're not completely done with muggy weather just yet as a strong ridge over the western part of the country will act as a block and allow moisture to flare up from the south, just to get knocked back down as west to east frontal boundaries cut across the northeast. Hurricane Rosa in the eastern Pacific, an active pattern around the Bering Straits, along the deep low from Leslie over the North Atlantic will be the significant weather features to watch for clues for how the second week in October plays out. I don't want to sound alarmist here, but as we flip the calendar, the threat for more potent storms is on the horizon. Make sure you are prepared, and keep tabs on the forecast. Nuisance showers for Friday Showers overspread the region Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak low travels along a stalled frontal boundary to the south. This is a quick event. The showers over the mountains and north are on track to dissipate by mid to late morning, and will be all but over for southern and eastern areas by mid-afternoon.  There is not a whole lot of accumulation expected with this. Northern areas may not register much in measurable rainfall. The coastal plain likely sees the most out of this, and that isn't a whole lot. Southern areas provide some intrigue for a bit of over performance potential due to the track of the impulse and energy associated with it. Friday evening football activity should be precipitation free, but with falling temperatures as most areas will be in the 40s by the time games wrap up in the evening. Outlook through Tuesday While the outlook is unsettled, there is not a whole lot of rain that will come out of this as the fronts appear to be somewhat moisture starved. The northern and western areas may see a brief shower on Saturday as a disturbance sweeps through. Sunday will be a chilly start. If you are still growing, you'll want to cover up the plants Saturday night. A frontal boundary to the south pushes north into the region Monday which may bring more scattered showers in the morning. The front stalls and another impulse forms along it and arrives Tuesday and appears to linger into Wednesday. As we head into the latter part of next week, a cold front appears to approach the region Thursday and the Columbus Day Weekend may start off unsettled as well. Stay updated! For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. Always stay weather aware! - Mike Track shifts a bit north The two things I mentioned in the Monday evening Facebook post are on track to occur. Remnants of Florence to impact the south, a cold front passes through in its wake from the north. The heavier rain in southern areas appears to be over with early Tuesday afternoon, although I can't rule out a quick downpour from a passing shower or thunderstorm associated with the trailing cold front through Tuesday night. Wednesday appears mainly dry at this point, outside of a few sprinkles or a light shower over the north and mountains. Total rainfall Areas in the coastal plain are likely to receive the most rain from this event. Since this is a tropical system, there runs the chance for thunderstorm development, and if that were to occur, heavier rainfall from downpours are likely. Severe storms cannot be ruled out, but will likely be isolated if they flare up. Gusty wind, frequent lightning, and downpours are all possible in southern areas with the energy associated with Florence. Any storm activity Tuesday afternoon into the evening may include hail in addition to the aforementioned threats. Humidity departs once again As the cold front ascends from the north, this most recent round of humidity will be flushed out of the region with a north / northwest wind by late evening Tuesday into the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The breeze will continue into Wednesday, settling down by Thursday morning. Dew points will remain at comfortable levels through the weekend. We may see an uptick in humidity the middle part of next week as a warm from from the southwest may pay a visit, but it does not appear to last very long, if it happens. Fall will arrive on time. Stay updated!For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.
For more information from me, please follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page and my Twitter feed. Thanks as always for your support! Please consider making a donation to keep Pine Tree Weather going. Check out the donate page on how to contribute. Always stay weather aware! - Mike Beneficial rainfall from Florence possible Tuesday; frost concerns for the north Wednesday night9/16/2018 Typical early fall pattern underway Shorter periods of daylight. Trees showing some signs of color. Potential for hurricane remnants. A good chance for frost for the north country later in the week. It is indeed mid-September in Maine. For our friends in the Carolina's, our thoughts and prayers are with you. As Harvey proved last year in the western Gulf of Mexico and what Florence is proving this year, tropical systems with no frontal boundary to whisk them away leads to historic levels of fresh water flooding. Cut off areas of low pressure with tropical characteristics never end well, no matter where they are. What about Florence for Maine? Refer to the headline of the post. The key word in all of this is "potential". Over the weekend, guidance has varied a bit in its idea on what Maine could get out of this. Notice two systems on this Euro model loop I have provided here. A frontal boundary over the north, remnants of Florence quickly moves northeastward from the south. All guidance is on board with the idea that the two systems won't phase until the two meet in vicinity of Nova Scotia. That is a bit too close for comfort for me, so I throw up a caution flag on this until tomorrow.  The latest European ensemble mean idea keeps most of the heavier rain to the south, but it's real close. What I am saying here is there could be bust potential either way with this. The track could go further south or north, pending on the timing of all of this. For now, I will agree with the ideas the models are selling on this, but color me a tad skeptical. Folks along the coastal plain (Fryeburg / Waterville / Bangor / Calais south) should prepare for a rain event, one that could be heavy at times, bring some gusty winds, potential for training downpours with flash flood potential, and thunderstorms. I will be right out front that this could be a bust, but it is too close in time and track to fool around here. Showers begin Monday night over southern areas and Tuesday morning over the north with the approaching system up there. The western and eastern areas could see a few showers in the late afternoon / Tuesday evening time frame overnight into Wednesday. I will update this on the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page Monday evening. In the aftermath... frost / freeze potential In the wake of Florence departure of the continent, Canadian high pressure moves into the region temporarily and this time of the year means frost / freeze potential comes along with it. Don't let the forecast temperatures on this chart fool you here. This has a good chance to be colder than this. Folks who are still growing or put the mums out for fall should prepare to cover them over in the areas away from the coast noted above. Protected areas in the coastal plain should stay in touch with forecast overnight low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If this validates, this may kick off fall foliage color over the mountains and north in the next week. Keep that in mind if you want to plan your trips and photography excursions. Outlook through Friday Southern and eastern areas may have to deal with some areas of fog once again Monday morning, which could be locally dense. Folks along the coast should put their headlights on as you head out to work. Western and eastern areas may pick up an isolated shower or thunderstorm as a stalled frontal boundary over the central region may touch off some precipitation. Tuesday, rain showers are likely for the north, with heavier rain possible south. Western and eastern areas should stay tuned for updates. Showers begin to gradually clear out of the region from southwest to northeast on Wednesday. Thursday will be a cool one for the state, with frost / freeze potential to stay updated on over interior areas. A warm front approaches Friday which brings the chance for showers and possibly some rumbles during the day, and if all goes well, a trailing cold front tracks through Friday night and a dry weekend appears to follow. Stay tuned. Stay updated! Updates this week are likely to be of the short and to the point variety as I return to the office from a business trip. You can check the Facebook page or my Twitter for what information that I can provide. As always, stay in touch with the National Weather Service for the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories from them. Check in with the Caribou office for northern and eastern parts of Maine, or the Gray office for western and southern areas of the state.
Always stay weather aware! - Mike |
Mike HaggettSeven year forecaster. Archives
October 2018
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