All in all the Fourth of July weekend was a good one. One day of oppressive humidity on Saturday reminded us of where we are in the calendar year. Looking ahead a bit, the third week of July could be roaster, which is typical. Having grown up in Yarmouth, Clam Festival weekend is typically a steamy affair, and this year appears no different. While it will be warm and bit uncomfortable at times, rain amounts appear close to normal over the next couple of weeks.  Now that the lakes and a good portion of the ocean are at a comfortable temperature for a dip, I suspect the beach spots will fill up quickly in the coming days.

As far as Maine is concerned, a frontal boundary approaches the region on Thursday and will slowly move through the area on Friday. High pressure will nose in briefly on Saturday. A cold front will cut across the northern 2/3rds of the state on Sunday.

Folks with interest in the central coast region of the Gulf of Mexico will need to watch potential tropical storm Barry forming by around Thursday. There is potential for this to develop into a hurricane. The major concern with this systemr is flooding from 1-2 feet of rain over parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. For more on that, please check in with the National Hurricane Center for the latest. 

Back to our region, a southwest flow ahead of the cold front will pump moisture and humidity levels up starting late Wednesday. Thursday will be a muggy day for western and southern areas, with showers and thunderstorms possible during the day. Eastern and northern areas squeak out one more dry day for the most part, with late day showers arriving DownEast by late afternoon. Friday, everyone has a good chance for rain. Thunderstorms are a concern for southern and eastern areas primarily through early to late afternoon, cloud cover dependent. By Friday night, showers and storms end over southern areas. Western, eastern and northern areas may see showers continue into early Saturday morning. The aforementioned cold front dips down from Central Quebec Saturday night and brings showers to the north for Sunday, with scattered showers to western areas, and chance for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm for eastern areas through the day.

The loop of forecast dew point temperatures shows potential for some 70°+ for the region on Friday. It appears we'll get a bit of a break early Saturday, but as the cold front approaches the north, a southwesterly flow will bring back the muggy conditions Saturday afternoon. Western and southern areas see more comfortable conditions Sunday, whereas northern and eastern areas appear to have muggy conditions associated with the passing front through Sunday evening.

It's a fair bet at this point that northern and eastern areas will receive the most rainfall from the two frontal boundaries through Sunday. Southern areas get most of their rainfall Thursday into Friday, and for the western mountains Thursday through early Saturday.

The NOAA Weather Radio frequency Sugarloaf Mountain service area (Oxford, Franklin, Somerset Counties) is 162.450 MHz. The National Weather Service has two other frequencies for use while the tower is replaced. The Mount Washington tower frequency at 162.500 MHz is the first one to try. The other is the Greenville tower frequency at 162.425 MHz. Most recently produced NOAA Weather Radios and public safety radio scanners are  equipped to receive transmission from any available NOAA frequency via their internal scan mode, so manual adjustments are not needed. For older models, they may have to be manually entered. If for some reason neither of the two alternate frequencies work, you can always check the National Weather Service Gray website for forecast information and severe weather bulletins. ​

Wednesday features a mix of clouds and smoke from the wildfires over eastern Alberta and western Manitoba. A weak front passes through that may touch off a brief sprinkle over western areas. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees above normal through the five day period, with the exception of Friday where the daily highs will be a bit below normal for most.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

A cold front will pass through the region on Saturday to sweep the heat and humidity out of the region. With the dew point forecast in the 70s for a good chunk of the coastal plain and moisture being pumped in ahead of the front, this presents the best severe storm threat of the summer thus far for the state.

There is the risk for an isolated shower or thunderstorm Saturday morning, but the main event appears to be late morning for the Allagash region and afternoon for the rest of the state.  Damaging wind is the main threat. Given the high humidity level, flash flood potential downpours and hydroplaning on the highways is of concern. Some areas could see 1-2"+ of localized rainfall in a short period of time. With the intrusion of cold air aloft, there is large hail potential with the well organized storms.

The big question as always is if the storms will hold together to reach the shorelines. Given the projected track of the frontal boundary, the coastline has a fair shot at seeing some action.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler in theory compared to Friday. I say "in theory" as the heat index, factoring in the uncomfortable humidity levels will make it feel like the mid to upper 90s in areas away from the coast. 

If you are headed to the lake or ocean beaches to seek relief from the heat, keep your eyes and ears open for storms, and prepare to take action once the threat for storms occurs. Seek shelter in a safe building, and stay away from windows.

In much cooler times back in late February, a winter storm which caused hurricane level wind gusts turned the communications tower on top of Sugarloaf Mountain into a pile of scrap metal. The tower relayed cell phone, public safety, NOAA Weather Radio, as well other transmissions. The spire is in the process of being replaced, which will begin on Monday. As a result, the NOAA Weather Radio transmitter will be taken offline until sometime this fall. 

The frequency of this service for the Sugarloaf service area (Oxford, Franklin, Somerset Counties) is 162.450 MHz. The National Weather Service has two other frequencies for use while the tower is replaced. The Mount Washington tower frequency at 162.500 MHz is the first one to try. The other is the Greenville tower frequency at 162.425 MHz. Most recently produced NOAA Weather Radios and public safety radio scanners are  equipped to receive transmission from any available NOAA frequency via their internal scan mode, so manual adjustments are not needed. For older models, they may have to be manually entered. If for some reason neither of the two alternate frequencies work, you can always check the National Weather Service Gray website for forecast information and severe weather bulletins. 

There should be no interruption of FIPS code alerts, so long as your radio can receive a signal from either the Mount Washington or Greenville towers.

Stay on top of the forecast to get a rough idea of when severe weather may occur in order to prepare accordingly if away from both radio and cell phone / web related sources. 

Sunday morning may see some early morning fog in places that get heavy rain the night before, but that should burn off by mid-morning. The region appears precipitation free until later in the week as a cold front arrives Thursday and may not clear until Friday. Humidity levels stay down until Wednesday. Temperatures through the period will range in the 70s north and mountains, 80s for much of the coastal plain for highs and 50s for most areas for overnight lows. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

One thing I am doing this summer compared to previous years is I am getting out and enjoying it. My updates have been erratic as I am getting outside and spending much needed time with my family, and playing golf as much as I can. My family has been through a lot of loss (four deaths to key family members in 30 months), the move to Kennebunk (a year ago April), so taking time to heal, relax, rest and have fun is high on the priority list. Rest be assured that I am keeping watch on what is going on. My forecasts have held up reasonably well as I take a day or two away at times, which I am glad. That has allowed me to take a break, get caught up on real job projects, cut the amount of time I am in the office, and take time for myself and my girls.  I need to be careful not to burn myself out, and I fight that from time to time. Anyone that knows me understands that balance in life has been a struggle for me for a long time. I am really working on doing that for my own mental health, and to be a better forecaster, father, husband and friend. 

Rest be assured, when something with potential weather impacts arises, you will be informed.

The above loop is that of dew point temperatures running from Tuesday night to Sunday afternoon. The trend is upward. This means uncomfortable sleeping, weather-you-can-wear, sticky conditions. The worst of the humidity appears to be on Saturday, where dew points may reach as high as the low 70s.

The actual temperatures will gradually rise through Friday. Interior southwestern towns like Fryeburg and Sanford may reach heatwave status (3 days of 90°). While Saturday may be the most humid of the upcoming days, cloud cover from a cold front passing through will help knock the mercury down a bit. By Sunday, it will be back to "Maine summer" conditions with temperatures in the 70s and dew points in the 50s.

Northern and eastern areas may be dealing with fog Wednesday morning, and perhaps an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. The Fourth and Friday appear mainly dry. With the humidity on the increase, I can't rule out the potential for a pop up thunderstorm in the western mountains / central highlands, but the risk is remote. Saturday will be the next day for concern for showers and strong to severe storms. After that clears the coast Saturday night, Sunday and Monday will be worth the reward for enduring the heat & humidity with much more comfortable temperatures and dry conditions.

With the rise in humidity, fog will be a concern to start off in areas along the coast. I don't expect it will last long. Outflow ahead of the cold front may cause an isolated shower / storm for the mountains and north on Friday. After a sultry, showery and stormy Saturday, Sunday appears to be much drier and back to seasonable temperatures. 

If you are headed to the beach, whether ocean or lakeside, don't forget the sunscreen. It will be important to stay hydrated, and to exercise early in the day.  Find a way to stay cool, and take it easy through the rest of the week. 

Stay on alert in case of pop up storms. Be blessed, and thank you as always for your support!

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

With the dew point levels in the 60s and low pressure passing through the region, a bit of sun is all it will take to touch off strong to severe storms, especially over western and southern areas Saturday into Saturday night. If you see sun, think storms! 

As the low exits, the upper level low over the region pinwheels more energy through the region on Sunday, and brings the risk for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night.

Any severe storms that form could be rather nasty. Damaging wind, small to large hail, flash flood potential downpours, frequent lightning are all possible. When thunder roars, head indoors.

Rain accumulations from the two day period range from roughly ½-1" of rain statewide, with locally higher amounts possible in areas of downpours.

Please stay on alert and take appropriate action to protect yourselves and your family if a severe storm approaches your area.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. The Fourth appears to be a warm and humid one, with daily high temperatures rising into the weekend.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

Areas seeing early morning fog can expect it to burn off by around 9 AM. It will be a dry morning, with temperatures rising quickly to the 70s north and east, 80s for western and southern areas away from the coast. Dew points in the 60s will make it feel rather a bit sticky for the coastal plain. Widely scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Any storms that form could contain gusty winds and small hail. 

Expect areas of fog for coastal areas to start the day, with showers developing soon after daylight.

​Where the upper level low sets up shop will dictate who gets what for higher chances of shower and isolated storm activity for Saturday. For now, that appears to be New York and western New England. Low pressure forming along the ridge to the south of the upper low brings showers and isolated storms to the state. Storm chances will depend on how much sun can break through the clouds. There appears to be enough convective energy around for some strong to severe storms to develop, pending on solar enrichment.  

Pardon me if you've seen this movie before. This has been "the pattern" the region has dealt with since last fall. Weak disturbances will pass through the region, bringing warm air and convective energy in from the south, with frontal boundaries sweeping it away. 

I am concerned about severe storm potential on Sunday as the boundary entering the region from Quebec is a bit on the cool side. For now, southwestern areas have the best chance for some spicy storms to break out. Given the cold air aloft, there is concern for a large hail possibility. Gusty winds, downpours, frequent lightning and a low chance for a weak tornado are all on the discussion table.

Monday appears to be dry, a bit breezy, and a bit cool for the start of July. Another frontal boundary heads for the region Monday night into Tuesday, bringing the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday night.

A weak wave works through northern and eastern areas Wednesday, which may bring a pop up shower or storm for those regions in the afternoon.

I am cautiously optimistic that the Fourth will be a dry, warm, sunshine filled day.

A general idea of what to expect here. For those who are camping out this weekend, pick your site with thoughts of rising brook, stream and river levels, along with potential runoff. Keep your NOAA Weather Radio handy and in alert mode for bulletins from the National Weather Service. Take appropriate action when storms hit. 

Stay on alert for strong to severe storms through the weekend.

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

Expect showers, an isolated chance for a thunderstorm, and areas of fog Thursday night. Friday appears to be a warm one for western and interior southern areas where the thermometer may top out in the mid to upper 80s, and perhaps around 90°. Along with the temperature rise, the humidity will also increase with dew points in the 60s to near 70° for southwestern areas. We're not in the Triple-H category as of yet, but that may be coming over the Fourth of July weekend. 

Folks visiting from out of state should be mindful that the lakes and ocean temperatures are still rather chilly in the 50s due to the cold, wet spring the area has gone through. It may be a bit of a shock to take that dip to cool off from the heat. Watch the young kids closely as they go for a splash in the coming days.

As discussed here previously this week, an upper level low will sink southeastward from Hudson Bay, pinwheel around through the weekend, and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms along with it. The better chance for rain and storms will be over the western mountains & foothills on up into the central highlands and The County. The coastal plain DownEast to southwest appear to see hit or miss showers and storms through the weekend.

As far as storms go, that all depends on sun. If you see sun for any extended amount of time, expect the chance for thunder. Make sure you are near a safe shelter and take action when the first sound of thunder is heard. 

For those camping out this weekend, you'll need to keep the NOAA Weather Radio handy, and be aware of not only severe storm chances, but also flash flooding concerns. Pick your campsites wisely considering rising water from tributaries as well as runoff from the hills. 

Severe thunderstorm chances appear isolated, but could pack a punch with gusty winds, flash flood potential downpours, small to large hail, frequent lightning, along with a low risk of a tornado. The best chance for the stronger storms appears Sunday.

Showers and storms are once again expected Monday night into Tuesday.  Wednesday appears dry. The outlook for the Fourth remains to be a warm one, with a chance for showers and storms. 

Stay tuned for updates through the weekend here, on Facebook and Twitter. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

Some spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may pop up Wednesday evening as a weak frontal boundary slides through the region. Thursday sees a similar set up, which could bring an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly over the interior, but a few may pop up along the coastal plain. An area of weak high pressure moves in Thursday night, then quickly departs Friday morning. There is an isolated chance for an afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm into Friday night. 

An upper level low moves southeast from Hudson Bay Friday night into Saturday. The system will pinwheel through the state over the weekend, and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.

The upper low spins off a surface low. The surface low brings moisture, a rise in humidity, and convective energy in from the southwest. The rule of thumb this weekend is where there is sun, there is a chance for shower or thunderstorm. Sunday appears the wetter of the two days as a cold front pushes through the region to clear the surface and upper level low out of the region. Saturday will be much like last Saturday, however, with pop up showers and storms statewide through the day.  Monday appears dry, with a cold front working into the region Monday night into Tuesday, which could bring another round of showers and storms to the state.

It's a bit early to get into too many specifics, but this is the general idea. Guidance is mixed on a potential frontal boundary that could bring afternoon showers or thunderstorms to the state.  In that scenario, temperatures would be what the graphic indicates here. Another school of thought is a ridge of high pressure coming in from the southwest, which would bring sultry dew points (65°-70°) and widespread 80s to the region, with no rain.  Time will tell which idea is the correct one, but either way, humidity appears be around, and with that, comes the chance for showers and storms.

The weekend following the Fourth could be a very warm one with 80s and perhaps 90s. Ah, summer. 

Again, Thursday and Friday, we'll deal with isolated activity. The weekend will feature more widespread activity, and perhaps potential for severe storms. 

Stay tuned.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

The spring severe weather season has been pretty tame for Maine so far this year, but that is about to change. The region will have period of stormy weather through the rest of the week as the summer warmth to the south works to kick out the spring weather to the north as we head into next week. New England will be caught in the atmospheric battle zone through Sunday. It would be wise to make sure you stay on alert for potential severe weather through the period. Chances will increase for severe weather as we approach the weekend.

This graphic poses an important question: Do you have multiple ways of getting warnings? While we live in a world where smartphones deliver much information, they may not work in the mountains and north country. It is important to keep a NOAA Weather Radio handy just in case the smartphone fails. 

A warm front moves eastward Tuesday. The focal point for heavier rain today is over southwestern areas from roughly Fryeburg to Lewiston to Portland southward. The heavier showers and storms may arrive after the evening rush. The potential is there for some localized flash flooding, hydroplaning, and ponding on roadways into Tuesday night. Roughly ¼-½" with locally higher amounts of rain is expected from this event statewide through Wednesday morning as the front slowly moves through the area.

After the warm front clears the region, and cold front drops down from Quebec on Thursday which will bring scattered showers and storms to the mountains and north, with a few pop ups for the coastal region. High pressure will try to nose in on Friday, which may bring a generally dry day for southern areas, but an upper level low over eastern Canada moves drops south. Much like last Saturday, the upper low will pinwheel around the region, and will draw up warm air and convective energy into the waves cutting through the area. Showers and thunderstorms with potential for strong to severe storms are possible Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 

A rough estimate of 1-1½" of rain through Sunday is a fair starting point given the dynamics, with heavier amounts of rain for the international border region on both sides of it. The position of the upper level low and how much moisture it will drag into it will dictate the final tally. 

After this weekend, the region appears to dry out for a couple of days and will be a bit on the cool side as a Canadian high takes over early next week. 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

This past weekend gave an indication of how the week ahead would unfold. A similar scenario of a pinwheel effect of an upper level low over eastern Canada will send repeated short waves through the region. The result of that are daily chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the week and possibly into the last full weekend of June.

Monday will be the last dry day, both in lack of precipitation and humidity levels. A frontal boundary approaches from the west on Tuesday, which will push humidity levels upward. As the shortwaves rotate through the region, humidity will rise ahead of them, then fluctuate, then repeat itself. Included in the humidity comes potential energy for thunderstorms, especially for the mountains, central highlands and areas along the Quebec border. 

The pinwheel effect appears likely to continue through the week and potentially into next weekend. The Quebec border region is likely to see the better chance for rain. Southern and eastern areas will depend on the day. Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday appear to be the best chances for showers and thunderstorms for the coastal plain, but with the uptick of humidity and seabreeze influence, I can't rule out potential for isolated thunder for Wednesday and Friday. 

Understand that this is a running total and will slowly accumulate over the next five days. Amounts could vary higher or lower pending on position of the upper low and how juicy the shortwaves get from southwesterly flow. Any thunderstorms could bring downpours which could make amounts locally higher. For those camping this week, it would be in your best interest to consider fast rising brooks, streams and run off in case of thunderstorms. Make sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio handy to check in on the forecasts, and that it is properly set to receive bulletins when necessary. 

With the rise in dew points along the coastal plain, early morning fog is possibility through the week, which may reduce visibility for the early bird travellers. 

Also keep in mind the ocean and northern lakes temperatures are still chilly in the 50s, southern lakes are barely over 60º. It may be refreshing at first, but there is a risk for hypothermia with extended time in the water.

The long term trend appears warmer than normal, with above average rainfall as we head into July. The combination of the two means muggy and humid conditions. Are your air conditioners ready to get a workout? It may be time to install and test them before the hazy, hot and humid weather arrives. July is almost here!

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike

For all areas but eastern zones, the steadier rain is over with just light showers possible through Friday morning. As the storm slides east, the DownEast region will see steady rain end and taper to showers later in the afternoon. The storm will intensify as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes, and a gusty northwest wind will be the main weather feature for the region over the weekend.

An upper level low will back into the region Saturday, which will bring a chance for a pop up shower and/or thunderstorm. Any thunderstorms that develop may contain gusty winds and small hail. Severe storm risk is very low.

The upper low and surface low move eastward Saturday night. Sunday will feature mainly sunny skies, warmer temperatures, but will remain breezy.

A cold front approaches the region on Tuesday which may bring afternoon showers to western and southern areas. Showers overspread the state Tuesday night, and appear to exit eastern and northern areas Wednesday morning. Rain is also possible statewide for Thursday.

Have a great weekend! 

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

Please consider supporting Pine Tree Weather ► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

For more information from me, please check the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as well as my Twitter feed. 

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike