With the exception of the upper two-thirds of Vermont,  the New England region is under winter storm warning. Coastal Massachusetts is under blizzard warning. High wind warnings and wind advisories are also posted for the shorelines of the Bay State. This is going to a mess across most of the six state region.

Expect cancellations, roads shut down, and disruption to ground and air travel, along with freight, mail and parcel delivery.

Expect power outages to be likely.

If you absolutely have to travel, make sure you are well prepared in case you end up stranded. It could be a while before you can be reached. Road crews are going to be challenged at times keeping up. 

Best thing to do is shelter as close as you can to where you need to be. Go to a friend or family members home. Get a hotel room. 

This isn't anything that cannot be dealt with in Maine. For areas to the south, this is a crippling event. 

With the possible exception of way Down East areas, this is an all snow event. It will be cold enough for copious accumulations. I expect a higher ratio snow in the mountains, which will be easier to move and a joy to the ski hills. The snow will blow around. This will cause drifting. It will also continue well into Wednesday, and beyond for the mountains and north. 

While the heavier snow will fall over the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, wrap around snow showers are likely to persist well into Wednesday as the storm tracks into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. If you wake up Wednesday morning and think my snow fall call was a little short, you can expect to add another 2-6" on top of that, pending on region, by the time this is all said and done.

Mesoscale banding will tell the tale on this one. It's always hard to figure out just where they set up. Models are floating the idea of the potential of snowfall rates in the 2-3" range per hour in areas. This is likely to skew snow totals a bit in areas. 

This is only one model idea, and this is used here for discussion purposes only. I do think this is a bit over done, but the potential is there. NWS Taunton has issued blizzard warnings for the south shore and Cape Cod. I am concerned that the MidCoast east of Wiscasset on up through the DownEast coast are likely to see blizzard conditions, if not an all out blizzard with this event. Add to it the heavy snowfall, little to no visibility, this is where traffic could come to crawl or a complete standstill.

Again, if you do not have to drive, don't. Stay off the roads.

For the latest bulletins and forecast changes, please stay in touch with NWS Caribou for northern and eastern Maine, NWS Gray for New Hampshire western and southern Maine, and NWS Taunton for most of southern New England. 

Feel free to follow on Twitter @WesternMEwx for quick hits of information.

For those following on the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page, click on the Following tab on the page, then click on See First to get the latest information. 

​- Mike

Looking at the watch/warning map as of 7:30 AM Monday morning, pink covers most of the six state region ahead of the third NorEaster to impact the area since the start of March. Time will tell if Northern Aroostook will get in on the fun, as their criteria for a winter storm warning is 10" over a 24 hour period, which will be a close call. 

Gale warnings are posted for the bays, storm warnings are posted for the Gulf of Maine. 

​The forecast remains to be a tricky one.

Eastern Maine continues to be an area of concern for me as far as high end jackpot snowfall is that for Bar Harbor, Bangor, Millinocket, Danforth to Eastport with this storm. It would not surprise me to see 20+" come out of this, with locally higher amounts. Projected storm track has the low hitting the nose of Nova Scotia before tracking into New Brunswick. Given that track, much of the DownEast coast appears to have little coastal front influence, with the possible exception of the Lubec / Eastport / Campobello region. 

For western and southern Maine along with New Hampshire, the ski hills will make out like bandits again. Amounts exceeding 18" are dependent on mesoscale banding. Locally higher amounts above 20" are entirely possible here as well.

For my southern New England friends and followers, this looks paralyzing and big. It's rare we see the south shore, Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard get hammered with heavy snow like this. This goes to prove how deep the cold is associated with this event. Much of eastern Massachusetts could see an epic blizzard out of this. 

Simulated radar from the NAM model run at 2 AM Monday does a nice job showing storm formation along with the inverted trough coming together. It's that inverted trough that throws the wrench into this forecast. Models have struggled with this, and they continue to. 

This loop also shows that snow and snow showers will continue for Maine into Wednesday. The cut off here is 7 AM and there is still more snow to fall.

Another loop of the NAM model at 2 AM shows the big blast of snow. Once it gets started, heavy accumulations appear to start soon thereafter. The Tuesday morning commute for southern New England is a non-starter. For western and southern Maine and all of New Hampshire, you may get to your destination, but getting home could be an adventure. For eastern Maine, the morning commute may be a bit greasy, but manageable. Getting home there is also a problem. Northern Maine may wonder what the fuss is all about to the neighbors to the south, as snow fall does not appear to amp up there until Tuesday evening. 

Snow fall at 1-2" or more per hour are likely. Add wind speeds at 20-40+ mph, snow will drift and blow around. This could be a borderline blizzard for the coastal plain of Maine yet again. Snow plows may have a rough time keeping the roads clear at times. Plan accordingly. 

I saw this idea this morning and it raised a red flag for me. This is the Canadian RGEM model idea for snowfall in its 2 AM run this morning. I will make no bones about it... this is certainly an outlier, meaning its idea is differing from other guidance. Why this is rather peculiar is the fact this model handles snow events very well. It paints a different picture. The consistency in guidance is that Eastern Maine gets lit up, but to the west and south, guidance has been inconsistent somewhat. At the time of this post, there is still a decent spread with individual ensembles in the European model. Whenever there is discrepancy with key pieces of data, it brings in some level of doubt. I am not saying the RGEM idea is right, but I am noting that there is room for error here which could change the outcome. 

From NWS Gray's Area Forecast discussion at 4:12 AM Monday morning:

A note about the storm track. While deterministic models seemed to make an eastward shift, their respective ensembles still showed wide variation in surface low positions, and at least in the case of the ECMWF the operational model was on the southern side of the ensemble cluster. The snowfall forecast is definitely not a final answer, but more the most likely outcome based on the current guidance available. Definitely expect to have to make some shifts to account for track variation, and mesoscale banding.

One question still definitely not resolved is whether banding features with extreme snowfall rates will remain off shore or pivot into coastal Maine and New Hampshire. At this point there`s no clear answer to the question. Will have to wait for the storm to take better shape and give mesoscale models a better chance to resolve these features.

​There is your room for error.

As with the storm from last week, this storm is also stuck in a similar pattern. Upper level energy gets trapped over southeastern Quebec and spins around and around for days. Energy gets siphoned off into other areas of low pressure which brings off and on snow showers to the north and mountains through the remainder of the week.  A clipper system drops down from Ontario on Saturday, and with a system brewing over the southeast, that will have to be watched for another potential storm early next week. 

As with any heavy snow event, there are risks for power outages. Make sure you have enough supplies for a couple of days in case of power loss. Gas up your vehicles. If you don't have to travel, stay home. If you do have to travel, allow for plenty of extra time and be prepared in case you get stuck or end up off the road. Keep a blanket, have snacks and water in your vehicle in case you get stranded.  Stay at a hotel if you must to cut down on commute distance. 

For the latest bulletins and forecast changes, please stay in touch with NWS Caribou for northern and eastern Maine, NWS Gray for New Hampshire western and southern Maine, and NWS Taunton for most of southern New England. 

Feel free to follow on Twitter @WesternMEwx for quick hits of information.

For those following on the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page, click on the Following tab on the page, then click on See First to get the latest information. 

​- Mike

This update will be a brief one. I am about to close on the property in Kennebunk and still going through the process of offloading my current home in Poland. This post will give you a rough idea of what to expect. The fine details are still to be worked out. You will need to stay updated through NWS Gray or NWS Caribou pending on your region of forecast changes and bulletins that will follow. I will do what I can to update. You will want to keep eyes on my Twitter account as that may be all I have time for. 

This is a very fluid forecast and there is room for change. This storm has similar characteristics as the one did this past week. All that is circumspect at this point is the track, which as of Sunday afternoon is more over New Brunswick. That leaves Maine on the cold side of this from start to end. This isn't to say a coastal front may develop and knock down totals a hair from Rockland east, but for areas west of there, this does appear to be an all snow event. A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for the entire state.

It's important to note that this isn't ALL of the snow that will come.  The idea illustrated here is for the first 30 hours of the event. Snow showers are likely to persist into Wednesday morning for southern areas, Wednesday afternoon for eastern areas, and northern and western areas may see snow showers last into Thursday. This will bring some additional accumulation, although most of the snow will be on the ground by Wednesday morning for much of the state. 

Timing of the storm will impact the morning commute for southwestern areas Tuesday. Snow will overspread the state and intensify during the day and into Tuesday night. As I mentioned, snow showers are likely persist.

There is a fair amount of bust potential here. If the storm skirts east, western and southern areas will get lesser amounts, and eastern and northern areas could see more. The track is not set in stone just yet.

Thankfully, astronomical tides aren't a concern. The ocean has settled from the previous two events. That said, the shorelines will get battered again. Timing is everything with this event. The morning tides will be the highest of the two. Potential flooding, splash over and storm surge will have to be monitored. 

I wish I could do a bit more, but this is the best I can do for now. Stay in touch in NWS and local media for more on the timing and specifics with this event. 

​- Mike

At the time of this post at roughly 9:15 AM, southern areas in York County were seeing accumulations begin to taper from steady snow to snow showers. Using the HRRR short term model from the 6 AM run as a guide here for what to expect where you may be shows plenty of snow still to fall over much of the state. 

The storm slowed a bit as it made the hook around Cape Cod, which in turn extended this event. Winds are very gusty offshore reaching upwards of 60 mph during the 7 AM hour. The storm is weakening over the cooler waters of the Gulf of Maine as it approaches DownEast areas this afternoon. 

As the storm lifts to the north, snow tapers to snow showers before tapering off from the south to north by around midnight. Energy from this system taps into another storm brewing near Bermuda which will impact our weather picture Friday afternoon into Saturday with steadier snow for eastern and northern areas, snow showers for western and southern areas. 

This loop here is an idea proposed by the ECMWF model from Wednesday evening shows our current system, the trailer for the weekend, along with another potential storm for early next week. While the operational side of this shows the system staying to the south and east, ensembles paint a slightly different picture...

There is plenty of room for error with this one. Some guidance has the track closer to the region. For now, we'll call it a chance for a storm Monday into Tuesday and leave it at that.

I am doing my best to keep up with the weather activity and pass along what I can, when I can. I am in the process of buying a home and unloading the current one. I am closing on the destination property this coming Wednesday, and my current place is under contract to be sold. To add, I have a full time real job, and a family with health related issues going on. I may not update as quickly as normal, and I may even drop out of sight for a period as I deal with the issues in front of me.  

Some people have voiced concern of whether or not I will continue full state coverage. I will say at this point my plan is to continue that. When I started this peanut whistle operation seven years ago, I had the idea that I wanted to take it to higher level. I am not abandoning that idea. What started out as Western Maine Weather turned into Pine Tree Weather as a result of requests from followers in eastern Maine. My plan is to continue to grow and become better educated and certified as a full fledged forecaster within the next five years. 

I am not the end all for your weather information. I am simply an accompaniment. I want you to check in with the National Weather Service and local media for information. My mission all along is to present it to you straight, cut down on the hype, and present possibilities. Forecasts bust from time to time. That is weather. I hold myself accountable for my own ideas, and am quick to point out my mistakes. With all that has gone on in my life recently, I have made more mistakes than I care for. I am doing the best that I can with the time I have to put into it, and at the very least show you the potential of events that are coming.

Thank you for your understanding and your support.

I would love any storm reports that you can give me on the Facebook page and Twitter. 

- Mike

I am going to get right out in front of this because there is potential for this to get out of hand. Not only that, this could turn into a long duration event, especially for eastern and northern areas of Maine.

You'll have to forgive me here for not being as sharp with this one, as I am juggling a lot between the purchase and sale of homes, real job requirements, and family on top of it.

I do get the impression there is a skunk in the barnyard, because models handle occlusions (when cold fronts overtake warm fronts) very poorly. A hat tip to crankyweatherguy for bringing this to the forefront.  If you are on Twitter, he's a good man to follow, and sharp as a tack on synoptic forecasts like this one.

While this is only one model representation, the surface map indicates a pseudo-Fujiwara effect scenario occurring over the region toward the tail end of the loop in the Friday-Saturday time frame.  The initial storm makes landfall, curves into northern Maine, a trailing low to the west combines with the parent low, and a trailing low that blossoms around Bermuda siphons off the energy of the two areas into a new coastal low that slams into Nova Scotia. That storm tracks into the Bay of Fundy near Eastport, then moves eastward.  This keeps snow and wind in the forecast through the weekend. Blocking to the north and east is what will hold this pattern in place. All of the upper level energy with the incoming storm is just going to spin around and regenerate surface lows which will cause this to happen. 

Now that everything is coming into focus, the wind speeds are starting to amp up. I will be the first to admit that the NAM model depicted here has a tendency to overdo wind speeds, but I cannot dismiss the idea that this has potential. A rapidly intensifying system on track to make landfall along the DownEast coast could very easily set up the potential for blizzard conditions for the coast and coastal interior. By those areas, I mean Fryeburg to Waterville to Bangor to Calais to the shorelines. Whether or not it will be an actual blizzard (wind greater than 35 mph for a three hour period with visibility 1/4 mile or less) is a very fine line, but it certainly has potential to do so. 

Thursday is shaping up to be an absolute bear. Expect widespread cancellations, and if you can take the day off from work, it would be a really good idea to do so. Plow crews are going to have a hard time keeping the roads cleared with the heavy snow and gusty winds that will blow it around. Power outages from the snow and wind are going to be another concern as well. 

This is the ECMWF (Euro) ensemble outlook for snow through Monday at 1 PM. I have five circles highlighted on here of areas (or in the vicinity thereof) that I think could reach upwards of 20" of snow by the time the weekend is COMPLETELY over. This area includes interior York County, Sunday River, Sugarloaf, Katahdin and interior Hancock and Washington County. Western areas see the bulk of this with the initial storm Wednesday into Thursday. Eastern areas get a solid thump from the initial storm, but have a second storm to deal with over the weekend.  Outside of the northeast corner of Aroostook and the northwest corner of Oxford County near Wilson's Mills / Aziscohos Dam area, a foot of snow is a good bet at this point. It could go higher than that with heavy banding that is likely to occur. It could go lower than that in areas where the wind blows it away.

For the shoreline areas, I think at this point for Rockland / Portland area that any influence of a coastal front bringing rain will be short lived. Shorelines from around Wells to Kittery may see it hang on a bit longer, but 10-14" is likely the end result there with the dynamic cooling that is forecast to take place. 

Once the snow begins in earnest, expect it to pile up quickly. One to two inches per hour, perhaps more pending on heavier bands. 

Snow begins to arrive over southwestern areas early in the afternoon and then spreads northeastward through the afternoon and early evening. This will likely impact the evening commute as snow begins to pile up around 5 to 7 PM from the Portland area south. Points north (Lewiston, Augusta, Bangor and beyond should be alright getting home, but snow appears to accumulate on surfaces by early to mid-evening. For northern areas, you'll see snow arrive between the wee hours and daylight Thursday. 

End times depend on region. Southwestern zones see snow taper to snow showers by mid to late afternoon. Eastern Maine appears to be early to mid-evening. I expect snow showers to continue for western and northern areas through the night and into Friday morning. Some areas may see a bit of a lull, but more snow is on the way with the trailing storm on the way Friday night into Saturday. Snow and snow showers appear to persist with that feature through the weekend. 

With a bit of storm surge, it won't take much to cause some minor flooding in Portland and vulnerable areas along the southwest coast. ​

The second high tide occurring around 4 PM Thursday does not appear to cause issues, but it would be wise to stay tuned in case it does. 

Areas impacted from recent flooding should be on alert where the ocean has impacted barriers, sea walls, and roadways. ​

Please check in with the National Weather Service for the latest marine forecasts for the MidCoast and southwest coast and DownEast areas. 

Given the fact that this is a significant event, it would be wise to stay updated on the latest official forecast information from NWS Gray for western and southern areas, and NWS Caribou for the latest on northern and eastern areas. 

Be prepared for this event... make sure you are stocked up on essentials, prepared for power outages, and fill up the gas tanks in your vehicles by Wednesday evening. 

Also, be prepared for unexpected surprises. 

Follow me on Twitter @WesternMEwx 

- Mike

The four main ingredients for the mid-week storm are falling into place. Water vapor imagery shows the parcels of upper level energy descending into the southeast. The elements are on track to gather together by Wednesday morning. A surface low develops near the DelMarVa and then travels northeast. Snow will begin to impact southwestern areas by late afternoon, overspread the state by late Wednesday night. Snow is on track to fall heavy at times into Thursday morning, then taper to snow showers from southwest to northeast through Thursday night.  

For the shorelines, be aware of the coastal front. I am thinking that areas west of Penobscot Bay (MidCoast, Southwest Coast) may see a rain/snow mix at the onset and then flip to rain by mid to late evening and stay snow for the duration of the event. DownEast areas start as snow and then flip to rain briefly Thursday morning. This will knock down snow amounts a bit. Most of the interior areas are a lock for roughly a foot or more, with the possible exception of northeastern Aroostook. It would not surprise me to see some areas eclipse 20". Time will tell if that will an exception, or the rule. 

On the subject of The County... snow showers in the aftermath of this storm are likely to drive snow totals up to what the rest of most of the state gets initially. Snow showers are going to linger around through Saturday morning, perhaps longer. 

Expect a laundry list of storm related cancellations Thursday. It will take some time to dig out and get the roads passable for travel. 

Again, this a preliminary outlook and is subject to change. 

As with any developing storm, wind is always a concern. In this case, most of the snow appears to be on the ground before the wind begins to crank in earnest Thursday morning. Eastern areas are likely to see the strongest gusts as low pressure approaches. Make no mistake, the wind will blow snow around which will likely cause whiteout conditions at times from the beginning to the end of the event. As heavy as the storm will dump snow, it may feel and look like a blizzard, but the idea that it will reach criteria of wind in excess of 35 mph for a three hour period does not appear likely.

​The wind does appear that it could hamper clean up efforts, and expect that to blow all day.

Heavy snow that sticks to trees may cause power outages with what wind comes along.  Those outages may not occur until Thursday morning or later. It appears to be breezy through Friday morning over western and southern areas, Friday night for northern and eastern areas. 

The good news is the tides will have dropped considerably from their recent astronomical highs, and this storm does not appear to have the intensity of its predecessor. That said, the wounded coastline will have to deal with another round of high surf and wind during the day on Thursday. The two high tides to be concerned with happen during the 3 AM hour Thursday morning, with another happening around 4 PM in the afternoon. I am not expecting any major flood issues, but some minor flooding is possible. Areas impacted from recent floods should be on alert where the ocean has impacted barriers, sea walls, and roadways. 

As always, stay in touch with NWS Gray or NWS Caribou for the latest bulletins and forecast information.  

- Mike 

A winter storm watch is posted for western Maine and all of New Hampshire by NWS Gray. Given the circumstances, I suspect NWS Caribou will be hoisting their watches by later in the day. Confidence is increasing that this storm could bring heavy snow and gusty winds that could cause whiteout conditions and rough travel Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, statewide.

The forecast loop of the ECMWF model from data at 7 PM Sunday shows the massive storm that brought destruction to the northeast shorelines moving eastward. In it's wake, another storm comes together near the DelMarVa and heads towards the Gulf of Maine. 

The area begins to feel impacts during the day on Wednesday. Snow becomes heavy at times Wednesday night into Thursday. Heavier snow tapers to snow showers Thursday night. Snow showers persist for the mountains and north through Friday and Saturday.

The idea of snow is always track dependent, which still needs to be figured out. European ensemble ideas give us a clue of what to expect. Percentage confidence is very high for a 6"+ snowfall for much of the state.  Given the confidence of guidance, this is a good basis point as to what to expect no matter where you are in the region

Percentage confidence is also there for the idea for a solid foot or more to fall across much of the region. 

The wrench that always plays a factor in these types of storms is where and when the coastal front sets up, and how far inland it gets. For now, I take the 50+% idea for a foot or more of snow for areas west of Penobscot Bay along the shorelines with a grain of salt. That isn't to say it won't happen... it very well could, pending on track of the surface low. The coastal interior on up into the mountains are fair game for a foot or more as it stands for now.

Along with the snow, wind can be expected which will blow it around and cause whiteout conditions. The ocean will churn again, which is likely to hamper shoreline recovery efforts from the latest storm. The astronomical tide cycle will be past by then, but the idea of minor flooding, beach erosion and battering waves are something to be concerned with.

I will do my best to keep you updated. As always, check for the latest from NWS Gray and NWS Caribou for the latest bulletins and information. 

​Follow on Twitter @WesternMEwx 

- Mike  

With the forecast trend of the storm more to the south, the higher gusts from the storm appear to stay just offshore of the Gulf of Maine. It appears to be stiff enough (40-60 mph) along the shorelines that it could cause power outages. My main area of concern is for the islands of Penobscot Bay southward along the coast which will see the highest gusts during the day on Friday. As the storm gradually slides southeast, it takes the harshest of the wind along with it.  Given the slow nature of departure, the north / northeast breeze appears in the forecast through Monday, with speeds ever so slowly diminishing. 

The good news as far as the high tide goes Friday morning is concerned is the big wind does not appear to reach the area until the afternoon. The tide will be high enough where moderate flood levels could be achieved in the morning cycle however. Coastal flood warning is in place for the shorelines of Cumberland and York Counties from 9 AM to 2 PM. Two more tide cycles will be a concern for Friday night and again Saturday during midday for minor flooding before the effect of the astronomical phase tails off.

Given the timing of the storm, impacts and track, the potential for major problems for the shorelines in Maine appear avoided. That won't be the case for areas in Massachusetts and Cape Cod. What is predicted to happen there could be historic, eclipsing the Blizzard of '78 and the Perfect Storm of '91.

Given the unique dynamics of the storm, snow appears to be an afterthought for Maine. This is on track to be a higher elevation event, which will help the ski hills recover from some of the recent losses of the mild temperatures.  My idea of 2-6" for the higher peaks remains consistent, with lesser amounts in the valleys. The main core of precipitation from the storm is tracking to the south and west. 

I broke the news on my Twitter feed yesterday that my home in Poland is now under contract to a potential buyer. The next ten days of the negotiation and inspection process will dictate what happens from there. The move is to Kennebunk is tentatively set for third week in April, pending on how the next ten days play out. 

Twitter is where you can keep track of me for statewide information and other items of interest, along with some foolishness. You don't need an account to read my timeline, but will need one if you have any questions. 

I will update here when I can as time permits. 

As always, keep in touch with the fine folks at NWS Gray and NWS Caribou for the latest bulletins and forecast updates. 

​- Mike

Usually in storm set ups like this one, the buzzword "blizzard" would be thrown around like penny candy in a summer parade. That will likely be the case for much of New York state and a considerable part of southern New England. There is a possibility of heavy wet snow for parts of western and southern interior Maine. I won't rule that out as I think most of the models are missing on the cold with this event. 

The key in all of this is the position of the upper level low over northeast Quebec and high pressure near the St. Lawrence River. I believe those two ingredients hold the cards on how this plays out. 

If the high and upper low are further east, there would likely be a need for a yard stick to measure the snowfall from this event. There is plenty of energy, plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture, but the deep cold is to the north and west.

It's worthy to note that this storm is likely to contain a cold core to it, which means the idea of snow for  cannot be ruled out.  While that gets sorted out, there is still plenty to be concerned about with this event. 

I'll be blunt about this and say this for southern New England followers that you are likely to get hammered with this storm. Folks from the north shore to Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard should buckle up. High Wind Watches are already posted from coastal York County around the Cape all the way to the Outer Banks of Cape Hatteras. Gusts in the 50-60 mph range (potentially higher) are likely from Friday morning into Saturday, pending on region. Add the potential of heavy wet snow for interior areas, this could be a big problem for much of the northeast corridor. 

Coastal areas are going to take a beating. As the title of the post says, this is a long duration event. The storm will be stuck in a traffic jam over the Atlantic and hang around through early next week. Guidance is hinting at a central pressure of around 965 mb, which if this were a hurricane, would make it a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While it won't be a hurricane, the effects on the ocean will be very similar with waves exceeding 30 feet and hurricane force wind gusts offshore. 

Given the fact that is appears to be a long duration event, there are several tide cycles to be concerned with. Tides are astronomically high due to the full moon. Tides in Portland will be running over 10 feet through Monday. For Eastport, you can double that to 20 feet. Coastal flood watches have already been posted for MidCoast and southwest coast, and time will tell if they will be needed DownEast. It won't be until Monday before the seas show signs of settling down. Storm surge could range 1-3', with the higher level over southwest areas. Mariners are advised to stay in port and take the weekend off. 

Stay in touch with the latest marine forecasts from NWS Caribou for DownEast areas, NWS Gray for the MidCoast and southwest coast of Maine, along with coastal New Hampshire.  If you want to take a peek at how ugly it will be offshore, you can check the latest from the Ocean Prediction Center. 

Speaking of the Ocean Prediction Center, this forecast from around 2 PM Wednesday looking ahead to 7 AM Sunday shows the storm south/southeast of Nova Scotia, still very strong and with plenty of wind.  It will slowly weaken and move eastward into Monday. As it does, the seas and shoreline winds will begin to settle down. 

There is still much uncertainty on how much of what type precipitation will fall and where. There are plenty of questions and not many answers at this point on what the impact will be for Maine. There are several ideas on the table, and all are track dependent. Most guidance has the storm near the benchmark 40°N / 70°W point, which causes concern for me. To add to my concern is high pressure situated near the St. Lawrence River. While the storm appears to be throwing warm, moist air in at the surface, the question remains as to what happens at the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. While surface temperatures could be above freezing to near 40°, that does not mean snow is unlikely. 

This idea from the Canadian model is an outlier, but it highlights my concern that some of the models are running too warm with this event. This chart indicates potential temperature at roughly 5,000 feet above sea level. Checking with the GFS model, which typically runs on the cool side, it shows similar ideas and takes the cold down to around the 1,700 foot level. With cold high pressure lurking to the north and a strong storm to the south, I become concerned that cold air will bleed in and turn interior areas into snowfall. There is a fair amount of confidence that areas north of Route 2 could see some snowfall. The game at this point is to figure out how close to the coast it gets. For now, it appears to be an elevation game. Hills over 1000 feet have a good chance for snow. It all depends on how low the cold ceiling falls for areas less than that altimeter. Folks who live in the foothills and coastal interior should pay special attention to the forecast Thursday into Friday to see how this all plays out. 

The good news is the new home purchase is about complete. The current home sale is underway.  I still have no idea when the move will take place as of yet. That will be contingent upon the sale of our current home, or when my youngest daughter finishes school for the year, which ever comes first. I appreciate you hanging in there with me, and I look forward to where I can spend more time with weather updates.

As always, stay in touch with NWS Gray and NWS Caribou, and for you southern New England followers, NWS Boston for all the latest official bulletins and information. 

Thanks as always for your support. 

​- Mike

While the winter weary members of the population are likely to embrace the forecast, this is one that certainly comes with side effects. Anytime warm air of this form comes with a snow pack and frozen rivers, flood potential is the first red flag that is raised. A good portion of southern and western areas could see as long as 72 hours of above freezing temperatures, which makes the potential flood threat even greater. With some rivers already jammed with ice from the January thaw, the abnormally warm air along with its duration could pose problems to tributaries through the middle part of the week. 

For those who live or work near rivers, brooks or streams, it would be wise to pay attention for rising water and ice jam potential that could make flood potential a reality. Also, for those who travel in low lying areas that are susceptible to spring or heavy rain flooding should think of possible alternate routes through later in the week. 

With all of this melting, the frost heaves and mud could make for rough and messy travel in areas as well.

While it is early to get into specifics, it would be wise to pay attention to the forecast in the coming days for a couple rounds of snow. The first would be for the mountains and north country Friday into Saturday, and then everyone gets in on the game Sunday into Monday. It all depends on actual storm track and storm intensity. For now, it is strictly an idea, and one to keep an eye on. 

The last couple of weeks have been rather hectic at times in preparation to relocate this spring. Between the work on the purchase of one home and the selling of our current dwelling, my time has been very limited for weather updates and information. At this time, we are not exactly sure when moving day will come. When time permits, I will post some sort of an update to keep you abreast of potential weather concerns and a better timeline of when the move south to Kennebunk will occur. 

You can always follow me on Twitter for any brief snippets of information that I may be able to pass along.  

I apologize in advance in case I do not respond to comments or messages on Facebook or tweets in a timely manner. 

I appreciate your patience while this process continues. 

Please stay updated on the forecast and any bulletins through the National Weather Service and/or the local broadcast media. 

- Mike