Another mixed bag to end the week
No real changes on timing or precipitation type from the update from last evening. A cold front sweeps through overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This one has a bit more moisture to work with than the one that affected the area on Wednesday. As a result, more snow is in the offing for the north and mountains.
Given the trajectory of the front, I do not expect a whole lot of freezing rain from this system. There will be some, primarily in the mountains. As warm air works in at the surface from the western foothills and mountains on up to The County, I expect a light slushy, slick mess to form on the roadways. Granted, it's not a lot of snow, but it will be enough to make driving a bit tricky for the morning commute.
All in all, a general 1-3" is expected in the north country. It would not surprise me to see some light accumulations for northern interior York County around Cornish and Parsonfield, Sebago Lake over to Lewiston/Auburn, Augusta/Waterville. Bangor appears free from accumulations. Whatever accumulations appear in those areas would be light.
Most of the precipitation is on track to end between 4-8 AM statewide. The north country may see some flurries and snow showers through the morning, but as high pressure moves in and dries the air out, clouds will begin to dissipate in the afternoon.
A mix of sun & clouds with a flurry possible Saturday
Some weak upper level energy appears to pass through the region on Saturday. This will cause clouds to increase in the afternoon, and may touch off a flurry or snow shower over the higher terrain. This wave is both moisture starved and energy starved, and as a result, not much will come out of it.
Sunday and Monday appear to be dry with varying amounts of sun, and temperatures slightly above normal.
Next chance for precipitation appears Tuesday
A long wave frontal boundary is on track to affect the region towards the middle of the week. It is a bit early to get into specifics on this for now. It would not be out of bounds to consider another round of snow, mix and rain for the area. That all depends on timing, and how much mild air moves in from the southwest.
The piece to watch in all of this is the shot of cold air coming down from Canada.
Snow chances begin statewide later next week
This will be something to keep close tabs on in regards to late next week and over the weekend. Models have been on this idea over the past few days, and I think there is some validity to it. Anytime there is a blocking pattern to the west, north and east with cold air in the middle, snow chances will rise.
With the moisture stream riding up along the coast along with trapped upper level energy holding the cold, there is a good chance that the plows will be needed roughly Friday. The intriguing piece in this is a second wave of upper level energy that comes down once the cold has been established by next weekend. It is that scenario where I believe where a solid snow (6"+) could occur. Models indicate that this cold isn't going anywhere. It will likely modify a bit, but it will be the second week of December. The cold that comes in does not appear to be mid-January cold, but daily highs may struggle to reach above freezing for southern and eastern areas over the course of several days. With the first day of meteorological fall being this Friday, it is only a matter of time before the landscape becomes white.
The 5-Day Outlook page has been updated through Tuesday.
Eight year forecaster.