The outlook from above A high pressure system remains overhead Monday afternoon, helping to keep conditions mostly warm and dry across the state, apart from a few isolated showers in the southwest part of the state. A surface low tracking eastward from Quebec will move in behind the ridge, with warm and muggy conditions remaining prevalent for the first half of Tuesday. In the late afternoon, this low will bring a cold front through the region, bringing the chance of thunderstorms, a few of which have the potential to be strong to severe. An upper-level trough will remain over the region through the end of the week, keeping the region unsettled, and bringing the chance for showers and storms. Westerly flow aloft will help bring in drier air, which may help keep precipitation isolated to pockets of air with more moisture. A ridging feature is expected to move into the region by this weekend, helping to once again warm temperatures up across the state. A steamy Tuesday with storms around Conditions are expected to become much more humid on Tuesday, with ample water vapor moving into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. Dew point temperatures in the southern portion of the state may exceed 70, with dew points north of the mountains in the low to mid 60s. This will make for very muggy conditions, with apparent temperatures in the south of the state approaching 90 degrees.  As the cold front moves into the region on Tuesday evening, there is a chance for thunderstorms throughout the region, some of which may be strong to severe. The southwest of the state currently looks to have the most likely chance of severe thunderstorms, with expected CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy, fuel for thunderstorms) values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range (fairly high). The SPC currently has the southwest corner of the state in the Day 2 outlook at a marginal risk (potential for isolated severe storms), with the largest threat being damaging winds. Thunderstorms are possible throughout the rest of the state as well, with locally higher/lower amounts of rain associated with these storms. The WPC has issued a day 2 marginal risk for excessive rainfall for the northwestern part of the state, with PWAT (precipitable water) values around 2”.  TUESDAY 6 AM (10z) to WEDNESDAY 8 AM (12Z): The first round of storms ahead of the warm front Tuesday being pass through southern and western portions of the state around 8 AM (12Z), moving to the northeast, and into the interior of the state by mid-day. Another wave will form as the cold front moves eastward, forming in the western half of the state around 2 PM (18Z), moving to the northeast, and arriving in the interior of the state by 6 PM (22Z). These are expected to move out of the state to the northeast by 10 PM (02Z). The frontal boundary may stall for a few hours in the overnight and few showers with a rumble of thunder is possible along the boundary through the early daylight hours on Wednesday. Upper level trough brings unsettled conditions |
Mike Haggett
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