Starting 2026 off with snow and a trip to the freezer This idea came to mind a couple of days ago, then faded, and has now resurfaced. The lack of upper-level air data from key areas to the north may be evident in the pattern, so it will be essential to stay up to date on the weather forecast, as it may change, as this one has.  For the last couple of days, I have mentioned here and on Facebook the risk of snow in the MidCoast and DownEast areas as the Arctic front moves in. As for the idea of "Well, this escalated quickly," the answer is yes and no. The idea has been simmering in the background, like the pot of chili I am tending to for New Year's Day as I work in the wee hours of Wednesday. Was the idea of a potential "DownEast Dumper" there? No, but eastern areas were going to get the most out of this, whether it was an inch or two, or more. As far as the Weather Prediction Center's idea on potential travel issues, I will respectfully say that they may worsen, given the recent forecast and the backside wind that will be an issue through Friday. For those following Way DownEast, you may want to pick up a few things at the store today and plan not to go anywhere until Saturday, unless you absolutely have to. Arctic front expected to ignite a bomb Wednesday 7 PM (00z Thursday) to Saturday 7 AM (12z) - I am not one to throw around meteorological terms that the news media have hijacked and used for hype, but I will call a spade a spade for what it is here. While on the front end, Maine catches this in the early development stage with snow, but as the storm rapidly develops through bombogenesis due the upper level trough turning sharply negative, the wind is going to be the concern on the backside with windchills that will make your freezer feel "not that bad" and blowing snow that will follow, especially for DownEast areas and The County. I suspect some schools, daycares, and businesses will take Friday off and extend their holiday break. A look at Bar Harbor with one of my favorite tools in the box, BUFKIT, using the NAM3km short-term view from 00z (Tuesday 7 PM), Wednesday...  The front is expected to pass through the state in the evening. I can't rule out snow showers across the interior that may dust the roads, so be aware if you are out. Things get interesting in the wee hours of New Year's Day as an area of low pressure forms over the Gulf of Maine and works northeastward toward New Brunswick. The BUFKIT profile here is a busy one. It shows forecast wind speeds at elevation and the mean direction. The light blue line indicates the snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR), which ranges from 12 to 20:1 for the DownEast shorelines. After a quiet, relatively gentle snowfall in the morning, the storm intensifies as it moves out of town and may bring a thump of snow starting around 11 AM, continuing through the afternoon. The wind shifts to the northwest and cranks as the storm heads for the Gulf of St. Lawrence, which will blow the newly fallen snow around through Friday.  It's comical and a bit unnerving to see this kind of spread in ensemble ideas this close to an event. I find it amusing in a cynical way because guidance ideas have been a gong show as of late. It's frustrating at the same time as a forecaster, as there is plenty of wiggle room for changes, and with the first flakes on track to fall within 24 hours, a surprise may be in the offing. Guidance continues to bring more ideas to the West. Folks in the southwest part of the state should keep that in mind.  The bottom line is that earlier development of the storm shifts snow totals farther west. Thinking that may happen, I have taken that idea into account with this snowfall idea. DownEast areas are in the jackpot zone, including Machias to Calais and the eastern area around Cobscook Bay, which will likely receive the high-end amounts. Given the fluffernutter effect, I can't rule out 12-18" as certain ideas tease with, especially if the storm forms more to the west, offshore of Portland. The outlier in this case cannot be dismissed as an outright liar. It will be an interesting day to see how this unfolds.  Outlook and temperatures into next week The storm bombs out north of Bathurst, New Brunswick, by Friday morning and runs into upper-level ridging off of Labrador, which will cause it to jam on the brakes, run out of steam, and slowly weaken. This keeps snow-shower potential for The County, with blowing snow elsewhere through Friday. The wind settles down Friday night as the storm moves east, but with the Arctic air in place and enough wind, freezer-burn-level wind chills in the -30s to -20s are possible for Saturday morning over the north. With this cold, any breeze will drop ambient temperatures by 5 to 10 °. Popsicle weather continues through Monday. As for the next storm, guidance has drifted off, with the idea that something is brewing in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame for now. We'll see if that idea comes back, as this one did. Stay tuned!  The holidays are over. |
Mike Haggett
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