Snow squall watch in the afternoon BLACK FRIDAY... SNOW SQUALL WATCH: While this is not an official NWS issue (because they don't have it in their bulletin package), I am going to put it out there. The primary concern is for the western mountains, where the wind, steep temperature lapse rates, and convective available potential energy (CAPE) are most favorable for activity. To the north, it does not appear as windy, but the lapse rates and CAPE are there for heavy snow showers. For areas south of Route 2 and the Airline, an isolated chance is possible all the way to the shoreline. Squalls may bring a quick hit of snow (up to 2"), low visibility to whiteout conditions, a rumble of thunder, and wind gusts of 30+ are possible. If you are on the road between noon and 7 PM, be aware of rapidly deteriorating road conditions. Pull off to the side of the road as far as possible and put your hazards on, and wait for visibility and conditions to improve before proceeding. SUNDAY/MONDAY: This quick-hitting clipper system is expected to bring minor impacts across the region. Light snow is expected to break out over western areas around noon and expand to the north and east into the mid-afternoon. An accumulation of 1-4" of snow for the mountains and north, before switching to rain, perhaps a touch of junk mixed in, then flipping back to snow showers as the cold front passes through overnight, appears likely. Southern and eastern areas may see a few flakes at the onset in the mid-afternoon, but will change to rain. BLACK ICE is possible for interior areas on Monday morning. Expect falling temperatures in the north and mountains through the morning as the wind picks up, and in the south and east in the afternoon. TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY: Model hype is in high gear, so be aware of it and question the integrity of those who are pushing it. Ensembles and ensemble means continue to err on the side of caution with what may come out of this. The position of the trough that enters the region on Monday and the timing/location of storm development off the DelMarVa coast are key. I am sticking with the 45% chance of a plowable snow event for the coast and will update. 'Tis the season to be skiing... The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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