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Friday August 16, 2024

8/16/2024

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​FRIDAY… Areas of fog around to start off will burn off for most areas seeing it but may remain stubborn along some shorelines and islands throughout the day. There will be less in the way of atmospheric drama than what parts of the region have experienced in the past two days. Most areas stand the risk of a sprinkle or shower as the upper low situated to the northeast spins around. The best chance for a thunderstorm is along the Quebec border region. Wildfire smoke may be an issue in spots as the upper low drags that in aloft from the northwest. Those with respiratory conditions, please take note.
 
FRIDAY NIGHT… Any showers around end soon after sunset. Patchy fog is possible. A warm front tracking northward overnight may stir up some cloud cover. Overnight lows range from the mid-50s to low 60s.
 
SATURDAY… An upper-level trough moves east across the Great Lakes and kicks up a weak frontal boundary out ahead of it. It may bring a shower with a chance of a thunderstorm along the Quebec border region. Dew points are expected to rise into the mid to upper 60s as the region sits in the warm sector. High temperatures range from the 70s south to the 80s north, where more sun is expected. Ocean swell from Ernesto begins to build along the coast.
 
SUNDAY… The upper-level trough continues to slowly move east into the area. Similar conditions are expected as Saturday, but with more of a chance of a shower/thunderstorm over the west and north, and perhaps along the afternoon sea breeze front. Humid conditions continue. High temperatures are mainly in the 70s, but a few 80° readings are possible where the sun breaks through. Expect the wind speed to pick up out of the south/southeast as the surface front approaches. Surf and swell increase a bit higher along the coastline.
 
MONDAY… The region wakes up with Ernesto well to the east. Showers are expected to develop over northern, western, and southern areas in the morning and expand eastward in the afternoon. The highest surf from the tropical system is expected to impact the region through Monday night. Some areas of splash-over are possible with the overnight tides at an astronomical peak.
 
TUESDAY… Showers are expected to linger through the day, ending from west to east in the afternoon and evening.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK... At this point, the region is likely to enter a dry period beginning Wednesday, which may go on into next weekend. We’ll see. 
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​ERNESTO… The storm is fighting shear and dry air, which appears to keep it below major hurricane status. This is a bad situation for Bermuda given that it is a slow mover and not expected to accelerate northeast until Saturday night. In the longer term, it appears to be on a collision course for Newfoundland and may pass just east of St. John’s around midnight ET (1:30 AM NT) Tuesday. 
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​For Maine interests, dangerous rip currents will be the main concern for the beaches until later in the week. The swell and the surf that settles down by Wednesday could cause some minor erosion.

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- Mike

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​NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.

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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Weather-Ready Nation
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    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

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