Erin heads for the North Atlantic The first major hurricane of the season heads out to retire as a massive gyre and will slam European shorelines next week. It never ceases to amaze me how big these storms get in the higher latitudes. The distance between the Outer Banks of Cape Hatteras and Bermuda is 650 miles. Tropical storm force wind gusts were recorded in both locations as the system threaded the needle between the two. While looking at forecast tracks presented by the National Hurricane Center which makes these storms look like a tornado, the impacts are much wider. Rarely does a hurricane passing to the east bring a wildfire threat to Maine, but here we are.  The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted southern and eastern areas of Maine for elevated fire conditions in their Day One Outlook (time sensitive). Given Erin's track, wind direction from the northeast enters the region, which will make already dry areas even drier. It will be interesting to see the Maine Forest Service's response when the update is made around 9 AM regarding the fire class level. The bottom line is that extreme caution should be used with flammable materials, whether it's your grill or your lawnmower.  The entire Maine shoreline is under a coastal flood advisory for the Friday evening high tide around 11 PM due to the astronomical high tide due to the new moon, storm surge of upwards of two feet, along with swells generating wave heights in the 5-11+ foot range. This sets up the likelihood of splash over along the seawalls, along with minor flooding and beach erosion. There could be a mess to clean up along the shoreline roadways on Saturday morning. With rip currents high along with the surf, it would be wise to stay out of the ocean. Sneaker waves could bring a surprise along the rocks that could cause injury or death. View the action from a safe distance.  Other than all of that, it's going to be pleasant day with temperatures warming above average. Drought expands and worsens No surprises here, given the conditions. For those who are experiencing drought-related stress, please report your conditions to the Drought Monitor by filling out this survey. For those experiencing dry wells, please fill out this survey by the Maine Emergency Management Agency. Conservation of groundwater resources is strongly recommended. The more people report, the better read of the overall impacts.  Forecast guidance remains hopeful for rain early next week, and I remain skeptical that we get this much. Naturally, it is not in the areas that need it the most. There could be thunderstorms associated with the frontal boundary that brings the rain next week, and given the dry conditions, there could be wildfire concerns that could develop from that pending on where the strikes take place. Stay tuned.  Temperature outlook through Wednesday The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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