Friday August 29, 2025

8/29/2025

Travel to begin the holiday weekend may be
rough on the interstate

For those like me who have commuted daily on the highways this week, it's been interesting, with car accidents (caused by rain or not) and construction delays. Traffic volume is high as visitors and seasonal home/camp owners work in and around for the last holiday weekend of summer. With showers and storms likely to occur in the afternoon, it could be another slow commute. While it may be inconvenient, we need this rain.

Friday 10 AM to Saturday Midnight - As advertised, an upper low works into the region for what appears to be an extended stay. Cold air aloft will allow for steep temperature lapse rates that could generate thunderstorms. The rumbles could be loud and shake the ground like a small earthquake, typical of early spring and fall. Given the low-level cold, there could be a few hailers that rain small ice pellets.

The CAMs (Convection Allowing Models) like the HRRR presented here indicate locally heavy rainfall amounts where showers and storms repeat. Precipitable water values around 1¼ juice the atmosphere enough to set that potential up. I don't expect any flooding issues, but a quick thump of heavy rain could reduce visibility on the roads. A puff of wind may come along with it which may be strong enough to blow around any loose object. Given the dynamics, I can rule out the potential for a severe storm, but the chance of it appears very low.

Upper low spins overhead on Saturday

Saturday Midnight to Sunday Midnight - The rain chances shift more to the east and north as the upper low becomes nearly stationary overhead. Given the unsettled nature of the atmosphere, I can't rule out isolated showers or a rumble over the west and south, but the thunder threat appears to be more prevalent to the north and east.

For the farmers in the north, the prospects are there for a decent shot of rain. Let's hope it verifies. Folks Way DownEast have a chance as well. It would be great if the upper low slows down a bit to allow for some rain for the parched MDI region. We'll see.

Outlook and temperatures through Thursday

Sunday 2 AM (06z) to Wednesday 8 AM (12z) - A look at the 500mb steering level of the atmosphere (~18,000') shows the upper low and the instability associated with it spinning overhead and crawling to the east. While it will be slowly weakening, there is enough energy associated with it to bring the chance for diurnally (daytime) driven showers to the mountains and north from Sunday to Tuesday. Upper-level ridging to the west shoves the low to the east by midweek.

There are indications of potential rain later next week. Stay tuned!

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