Outlook through Christmas This European ensemble model loop looks at mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and 500mb steering level heights (shaded) through Christmas Eve. The color configuration shows the troughing, ridging, and, in some cases, blocking with relative ease. The MSLP indicates model ideas of highs and lows. Since the atmosphere works from the stratosphere to the surface, this is a wonderful mid-level and low-level tool for mid- to longer-range forecasting. One key feature in this animation is the greens and blues. The green is the 540 line, sometimes called the rain/snow line, when a storm is present. The lighter the greens and blues, the colder the air at the steering level. This idea suggests that rain is on the way for Tuesday. A 995mb low over James Bay is rather meh regarding precipitation amounts for Maine. It’s an amped-up warm clipper with roughly ¼-½” of rain possible. We shift into a more zonal flow heading into the latter part of the week. Operational models have been playing around with a mixed-bag storm with all four precipitation food groups possible for Thursday, but looking at the ensemble, a weak and skinny cold front is all that is seen from this view. Where things get interesting is the signal being pitched for next weekend. A trough is expected to dive into our west and may fire up an ocean storm. At first glance, the trough is positively tilted, aiming toward the Gulf of Mexico. This doesn’t get me fired up for any significant impact. The rough sketch idea for now is the chance for snow in the mountains and north, junk over the foothills, and rain for the coast. On a side note, we are in a pattern where storms are getting organized and developing as they pass through our region rather than maturing. The result is glancing blows rather than full-on blasts, which appear to continue. This system brings in cold air to start Christmas week, similar to what the region is experiencing this weekend. At the tail end around Christmas Eve, another cold front approaches which may bring rain showers for the coastal plain and snow showers over the mountains and north. Christmas Day and Boxing Day appear mild, with a Bermuda High helping to keep the deep cold away. It is important to note that the activity over the open Pacific is chaotic, causing the operational models to show some dramatic ideas in the extended range. Those are the ones that spread on social media to get clicks and shares and to feed egos. I don’t do that stuff here. While I don’t dismiss the ideas completely, I take a far more conservative approach, taking into full consideration the whole picture. My concept is muted and simplified, with model error increasing beyond the 5-day window, but it fits the pattern. I will be off this weekend to rest, recharge, and enjoy the season. My next update will be Monday morning. Make it routine to check the PTW Weather Wall for updates Appreciation for financial help to keep the coffee pot going, help me pay the bills, and train future forecasters Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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