High wind potential narrow but potentially strongHIGH WIND WARNING in effect for Coastal Cumberland, Sagadahoc, Lincoln, Knox, Waldo, Southern Penobscot, Hancock, and Coastal Washington Counties. WIND ADVISORY for the rest of the state. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. Some may be dark for days. How widespread the outages will be is unclear.   ABOUT THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FOR PORTLAND AND BANGOR... I have been discussing the system's progressive nature and the low-level inversion. The two graphics here show both well. What sounds an alarm is the 100-knot forecast wind speed at 850 mb (~5,000 ft) associated with the low-level jet. The wind profiles here show potential speeds below 2,400 feet. It's a blessing that the window for strong winds is narrow, at 6-7 hours, and the highest risk is 2-3 hours, but it will be enough time to do some damage. Both show ideas of 50-knot speeds below 1,000 feet. That is the eye-opener, and part of the reason the Bangor area has a high wind warning. The low-level temperature inversion is the wildcard in this. It will reduce surface wind speed. The frozen ground and snowpack may deflect wind, keeping strong gusts above the tree tops. Typically, tropical air aloft and winter conditions at the surface do not allow for strong winds to cause serious issues. Another factor affecting the outcome is the ocean. The Gulf of Maine has cooled considerably since Thanksgiving due to below-normal temperatures. The ocean temperatures are in the mid-40s. This airmass moving in is warmer (mid-50s based on model soundings at ~1,700 feet during peak wind). That may also knock down wind speeds.  RAINFALL INTENSITY is another factor. Heavy rain can bring vertical wind to the surface, as it does during thunderstorms. Where this happens, the low-level temperature inversion will be overrun. Again, with 50-knot wind speeds potentially below 1,000 feet ahead of the front as it passes through, this is the concern. Given the sharpness of the warm and cold air aloft, a few claps of thunder are possible ahead of the front. BREEZY AND COLD ON THE BACKSIDE. Temperatures fall quickly behind the cold front. With the frozen ground, it won't take much cold to freeze the liquid left behind. BLACK ICE will form. Wind chills are expected to be below zero in the north and mountains, and in the low teens along the coast by daylight on Saturday. THE SHORELINES ESCAPE with minor issues. Forecast seas of 7-10 feet for the 10 AM high-tide window may cause splash-over along the seawalls, but it appears to be it. The ocean stays angry through Saturday. ACTIVE PATTERN INTO CHRISTMAS WEEK. A clipper is expected to bring snow showers to the mountains and north on Sunday; another may bring more widespread snow Tuesday afternoon into Christmas Eve; and another storm is possible on Boxing Day into Saturday. Stay tuned. I am experiencing an allergic reaction and will do my best to update soon. Family owned and operated company serving all of Maine PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support is needed and appreciated for 2026 |
Mike Haggett
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