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I hope everyone had a great holiday. In the past couple of days, it was good for me to enjoy some downtime with family and get a bit of rest. Looking at the weather pattern over the next week, the 2 AM start times will continue for several days. Financial help to keep the coffee pot going and pay the next round of bills due at the first of the year is much appreciated. Thank you to those who have chipped in and made this a worthwhile venture to continue into my fourteenth year. You folks are the best! A bit of ice to contend with through Sunday This setup is rather intriguing. Some ideas dismiss the threat of ice entirely, while short-term ideas are mixed about the threat. One thing is for sure: as a result of this recent cold snap, the ground is cold enough that any liquid that falls will freeze on contact. Any untreated surfaces will slick up, be it stairs, decks, driveways, walkways, sidewalks, and the roads less traveled. It does not take much ice to accrete to be problematic. While I don’t expect this to be a major ice event, I do think this will be a PITA because that is what cold air damming is. The classic cold air damI get the sense that models are underplaying the ice threat, and in the case of some, by a wide margin. Physics and cold air, especially the kind of cold that has been around recently, rarely agree. Too many times over the years, I have seen models look like complete fools while dealing with the cold. Given the topography and climate of the state, it makes it even more of a forecast challenge in certain situations. That said, for those who hear the faint noise of the train whistle, it indicates it is on the way. I am going to use the most extreme model idea in the tool box to make a point here.  Saturday 7 AM (12z) to Monday 7 AM (12z) – Cold air stays locked in with high pressure to the north and south. For the DIY armchair forecaster types, the isobars displayed on the mean sea level pressure charts are the first dead-set giveaway that something is up. Anytime the isobars point to the south and west as seen in this loop, there is the signal. Some guidance indicates the threat better than others. The Canadian RGEM short-term model is on it and shows it better than any of the others I’ve seen to this point. Needless to say, this idea raises the red flags for an extended event over the interior. While the concept here is extreme compared to others, there is cold air damming involved here, and since it shows it better than others, it deserves full attention, given the ice threat.  Using the RGEM idea of ice accretion shows the concern for an extended event over the interior. I see this as a signal rather than an accurate outcome representation. In all of the years of my forecasting, models never get the ice accretion right, usually overdoing it. Forecasting ice accretion is the trickiest, with sleet accumulation being a close second. The junkier the storms, the more difficult they are to predict. Cold air gets the last laugh in every case, and since Maine is filled with hundreds of microclimates, the outcome varies. The bottom line is that the ice threat will start Saturday afternoon and continue well into Sunday and into Sunday night for far interior areas. I do not expect the cold air to leave gracefully. The writing is on the wall.  While the icing could be stubborn over the interior, a decent slug of moisture will funnel in from the south associated with this setup, melting snow and causing runoff. I don’t expect it to be a big deal, but a few of the smaller brooks, streams, and rivers may tip their banks. A south/southeast airflow will throw water on the mountains, and that is where the risk for some minor flooding exists. The threat continues after the storm passes as temperatures rise with the upper-level ridge building in, keeping most areas above freezing for lows through New Year's Eve morning. Outlook through New Years and into early January Monday 12z (7 AM) to Wednesday 7 PM (00z Thursday)— With the main thrust of moisture working through the region on Monday, expect a locally heavy rainy affair with a stiff breeze. New Year's Eve looks suitable for outdoor celebrations with mild temperatures, but showers are possible around the ball drop time. We start 2025 with another system that could bring all four precipitation food groups to the state, but it’s too far out to get into specifics. After the New Year’s Day storm passes, temperatures return to the basement into the first full weekend of January.  Check in the morning and again in the evening for the latest Thanks to those who make my extra long days worth it Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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