 SATURDAY: A slight adjustment in the forecast from Thursday’s post to add the possibility of areas of freezing drizzle over southwestern areas and to fine-tune snowfall amounts and the area for the best potential to mix. The bottom line here is that there is not much moisture in this system, with most places picking up between one and two-tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent, a bit more for DownEast areas. Low-level moisture streaming ahead of the warm front may cause pockets of freezing drizzle to break out over the southwestern interior Saturday morning. There is also the risk of a snow shower north and a rain shower for the coast. The system moves in on Saturday afternoon, ending the light icing threat as the wind picks up and surface temperatures rise. Areas of snow and rain showers continue into Saturday night, ending from west to east heading into Sunday morning.  SNOW POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MLK Day MONDAY: In the past 24 hours, guidance ideas have shifted west with a developing ocean storm to the south. There is high confidence that cold air will be here, making this an all-snow event. There is medium confidence that the coast could see a plowable snowfall event, which would impact the Monday morning commute. There is low confidence in snowfall potential to the north and west. Individual ensemble ideas from the 00z Friday runs are about 60/40 split on plowable for the coast. The European ensemble tracks are roughly at a 45/55 split on track relative to the benchmark location, as the chart indicates, and overall, it is less bullish on snowfall amounts to this point.  The GFS ensemble idea for a % chance of ≥ 3” of snow is the middle of the road compared to other ideas. With cold, dry air moving in behind the Arctic front on Sunday and the position of the frontal boundary offshore that the storm develops along are all key players in the outcome. For now, there is a chance of snow, with fine-tuning on the details to come. THE BIG CHILL MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT: As the MLK Day storm departs, the northwest wind drags the frigid cold behind it. We could see three days of wind chills ranging from -35° to -10° as the breeze continues. Wednesday morning appears to be the coldest start of the three, with most of the state below zero in actual temperature. If the coast can pick up a few inches of snow to better cover the ground, that increases the chances for at or below zero readings to occur. There will be car batteries, alternators, and starters that have the potential to fail and cause extended wait times for road service and load up the repair shops. Pipe freezing could be an issue where they are exposed. Livestock on the farms will be challenged. While this won’t be as extreme as the cold of early February 2023, it will be the coldest the region has experienced since then. Be prepared. A one page source for all things Maine weather PTW is looking for business partners |
Mike Haggett
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