Friday afternoon update
Following up on my Friday AM post... the trend has dipped a bit further south, which puts the Portland area in the 2-4" snowfall range... The greatest ice threat is for New Hampshire, but for those areas along the border may pick up ¼" of accretion, perhaps locally a bit more, with potential for isolated power outages... I am concerned about freezing drizzle heading into Sunday morning, stay tuned for more on that... While there will be a lull to the north and the east, the south (Fryeburg over to Bath/Brunswick to Kittery) may be dealing with intermittent precipitation in the form of sleet/ freezing rain through Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. Expect areas of slick spots and plan accordingly. I will update Saturday morning. - Mike
Friday morning discussion...
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FICKLE WARM FRONTS THAT STALL OUT IN LATE MARCH DO FUNNY THINGS. Model ideas on snowfall and ice amped up with the day runs on Thursday, then backed off with the Friday overnight runs. Warm fronts cannot be trusted on most days, so adding the cold air component that models typically underestimate can cause sharp changes in forecast ideas. For most of the winter, the trend has been juicy to start in the mid-range, then dries out and narrows closer to the event with these outstretched baroclinic leaves. Not only is that going on, but the reduction in upper-air balloon launches to the west and south may also play a role in the changes, making an already tricky forecast trickier.
MOST OF THE SNOW FALLS OVERNIGHT and could nuke in spots of 1"+ per hour. Those traveling in the wee hours can expect slick conditions and poor visibility. Intermittent snow showers persist throughout the day as weak disturbances pass the stalled boundary. The taller hills closer to New Hampshire (hello, Sunday River) could end up with 6-9", but the trend may be too far south for the Rangeley region to get more than 6" out of it.
ICE THREAT FROM FREEZING RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTH. The main concern at this point is for York and Cumberland County. If the current ideas and trends continue, there could be more sleet/ice pellets than rain freezing on contact. Cold air damming will get the final say for icing, and warm noses that punch through aloft get the final word on sleet.
Given the dynamics, the HRRR short-term idea posted may be overdone, but it is not totally out of the box. High pressure over central Quebec holds the cards, and if this idea is verified, freezing rain could be an issue along the shorelines of the southwest coast, with more sleet further inland.
POWER OUTAGE POTENTIAL is limited. There is little wind involved here since this is a lazy frontal boundary. As warm air surges in from the south, ice accretion should melt off before the wind picks up Monday afternoon, and expect a windy day on Tuesday. WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETTLES OUT IS WHERE PRECIPITATION PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY, which favors southern areas. WANT TO SEE THE ECLIPSE? Go as far north as possible if you want to catch the partial eclipse. Millinocket isn't far enough. Go way up. ICE THREAT OVERSPREADS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY, which could make for slick travel as the warm front moves north. The idea continues that icy roads are possible for Monday morning for the western foothills, mountains, and northern areas. Most areas are likely to get rain by Monday afternoon. Precipitation ends from west to east Monday night into early Tuesday. Stay tuned! The PTW Weather Wall has been updated for spring!
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Mike Haggett
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