Overhead view PROGRAMMING NOTE: The pattern is becoming more active, so I will update more frequently. The website will be the primary source for information. I am seeing an uptick in followers abandoning social media, which I totally understand, given the political climate. Links to my social channels will be provided, but the main center of operations will be here. A look at the graphic above shows an upper-level ridge nudging eastward with an upper low southwest of Hudson Bay moving it along. Embedded in the ridge is a weak upper low over the southeastern part of the country that is digging. The energy around that acts as gasoline and awaits the spark from the north to develop a Mid-Atlantic NorEaster. The ridge over the central part of the country is about to get a temporary beatdown as an upper low over the Pacific Northwest battles against it. The Desert Southwest is in a scary situation as moisture from Priscilla and Raymond funnels around the ridge. For a region that does not receive much rainfall (7.22" is the average for the year for Phoenix), that may be achieved, if not exceeded, by the time the faucet shuts off there by the middle part of next week. Forecast guidance is in worse shape with the overnight runs with the MidAtlantic NorEaster I was planning to do a deeper dive with this storm this morning, looking at potential, but seeing where ensemble ideas are split almost 50/50, no matter which flavor of model suite I have available to me, there is no point. As mentioned in the post I updated throughout the day yesterday, York County has the best chance of seeing rain from this system, with lesser amounts to the north and east. The dry high to the north is likely to be one of the major players in this scenario, along with the associated upper-level ridge. With the location of low pressure to the southwest of the benchmark "B" at 40°N/70°W, it will be difficult for rain to reach into the mountains and north. The only idea of any sort of consistency at this point is the risk of surf and perhaps some minor coastal flooding along the shorelines due to the east/northeast wind fetch. Fringe locations are hairsplitters, and that is what is going on here. Stay tuned.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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