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Before I get into it, a special thank you to my monthly Patreon donors, along with those who have sent checks and wired funds through VENMO and PayPal. I am grateful to my business partners, who are a vital part of my backbone, helping to keep this going. It's through your support that I can operate this at a high level, offer stipends to atmospheric science student interns, and give back to the weather community and other charitable organizations. I am 60% funded for 2026, which will be my fifteenth year. Your support would be greatly appreciated. Isolated storms that pass through Saturday could get gnarly On Friday the warm front passes through. Dew points head upward into the mid-60s and bring the muggies back for a brief visit. Fog may be an issue in spots Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. The added juice to the atmosphere sets up potential for storms Saturday afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 outlook tees up the potential. The phrase I use often here is "When the sun is out, expect the thunder guns to come out." The forecast temperature lapse rates appear to be steep enough to warrant concern about the potential for damaging winds. Given the anafrontal nature of the setup, I can see the potential for hailers as well.  The model idea from Colorado State takes the SPC idea a step further, considering the possibility of damaging wind and isolated tornadoes. With the trough digging in and riding up against the ridge offshore, the two don't like each other. The instability wedged along the boundary between the two is where the battle for atmospheric supremacy takes place. Wind shear aloft in the 30-60 knot range sets up the spin. With spin comes the threat of downdraft wind gusts, along with the risk of an isolated tornado. Do yoU have any loose objects lying around in your yard? You may want to clean them up and secure them. Ensure your grill cover is securely in place.  The convection-allowing models (CAMs) are all on board with the potential for training rainfall, but differ in where it may take place and how much. The Lord knows we need rain badly, given the worsening drought. Even if localized areas get power washed with an inch or two of rainfall, we have a long way to go to gain ground on the drought. As deep as the dry conditions are in the soil, any downpours that accompany storms will likely run off into roadside ditches, brooks, streams, and rivers. Travel hazards include ponding on roadways and reduced visibility from the heavy rain and the development of fog.  Saturday 11 AM to Sunday 2 AM - A look at the 06z HRRR idea of 1-hour rainfall totals shows the potential for training storms that would bring locally higher amounts. Rainfall rates could exceed 1-2"+ per hour. Where the bust potential lies is with the cloud cover generated from the storms in the early part of the afternoon. The anvils of the storms that blow off to the northeast may diminish the threat upstream. We'll see what happens, but it's wise to stay alert and take cover when thunder is heard and/or when bulletins are issued. Crowe's offers emergency services statewide Outlook and temperatures into next weekShowers are possible on Sunday, with the favored areas south and east of the mountains. High pressure moves in on Monday and brings a northwest breeze along with it. The wind settles Monday night and brings the risk for frost for areas away from the shorelines Tuesday morning. A few light showers are possible later in the week with a weak clipper passing through. There is also the idea of a storm forming offshore that could bring showers to the coast, but confidence in that is low at this point.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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