A blah end to the holiday weekend Temperatures won't move a whole lot for most areas of the state. Expect an onshore breeze to pick up through the day and into the overnight. This is a Sou' Easter event, but with no where near the intensity of the storms from last winter. Dew points are expected to rise as the juicy air from the south works in. Precipitable water values are expected to push up to 1-1½". With that much moisture in the water column, it means two things: potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Timing and amounts Monday 6 AM to Midnight Tuesday - Northern areas appear to squeak out a dry day, but for the rest of the region, shower threats increase through the daylight hours. A few pop-up showers, areas of drizzle and fog as the humidity builds, and the southeast breeze may make it feel a bit raw at times. It won't be a washout, but it won't be overly pleasant.  Midnight Tuesday to Midnight Wednesday - The timing of the arrival of the warm front is in the overnight hours, which is expected to push out the heavier rainfall Tuesday morning. With the region sitting in the warm sector, as the sun breaks out, it creates instability that could fire up strong to severe storms as a weak cold front passes through the region Tuesday afternoon and into the evening.  Given the fact this is a Sou'Easter event, there is certainly the potential for overperformance, especially in the higher terrain. A general idea of 1-2" with the chance for more is there for the taller hills, with lesser amounts on the lee side to the north. This could set up localized flash flooding due to run off. Folks camping out should be aware of the threat given the fact this is a nocturnal event. Rapid rise of brooks, streams, and small rivers are possible. Trails and dirt roads may be severely impacted. Where thunder occurs could bring bonus rainfall as well. Outlook through next weekendOn the back side of the front that passes through Tuesday afternoon, and upper-low moves in and hangs around through the rest of the week. Weak waves keep clouds around and could bring off and on showers with a risk of a thunderstorm in the forecast through Friday. Temperatures cool down a bit later in the week. Upper-level ridging is expected to work in for the first weekend of June, which will bring warmer and drier conditions.      Thank you for making my early mornings worth it! Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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