 HIGH SURF ADVISORY – DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS – SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY all continue through the day. The swell from Ernesto may not subside until Wednesday. Watch and/or photograph at a safe distance. It’s not very often that a tropical cyclone holds an eye as it reaches the mid-latitudes. Ernesto was looking rather ragged Sunday afternoon and was looking more like a big comma / synoptic storm that is common at this level, but the Gulf Stream brought it back together and, as of the 5 AM Monday update, was holding onto CAT1 hurricane status. Newfoundland is likely to get slapped fairly hard with this one, especially the Avalon region. Also in this image are pockets of fog over the state and in the Gulf of Maine. Higher clouds over Southern New England contain showers that will work through the region during the day. Those appear to be in the hit-or-miss variety, so the day won’t be a washout. Based on overnight ideas, the axis of heavier rainfall and a better chance for storms appears over New Hampshire heading into Monday night. That said, parts of Maine could see a localized dumper or trainer, which may cause localized flash flooding and hazardous driving conditions, with reduced visibility from rain and fog during the overnight hours and the risk of a thunderstorm. By Tuesday morning, I expect rainfall amounts will likely vary between little to none to over 1” in isolated areas. Scattered showers are the rule of thumb. The front should clear the coast by Tuesday morning, but as I have mentioned, the risk of stalling or crawling could be an issue, and it appears that will be the case. That keeps the risk of showers going through the day. It will feel like fall with the dew points falling. Some areas of the north may not reach 60°, and the south may not get to 70°, which is 10-20° below normal for this time of year. With the cold pool aloft, the risk of a shower is possible on Wednesday and Thursday, with a warm-up on the way heading into the weekend. I am still battling whatever is ailing me. I will focus on rest and chill out for the day. My next update is to be determined.  Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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