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The 2 AM start times for me have begun. Every year, I ask myself if I want to keep doing this, and that all depends on funding from followers. I know there are many snow removal individuals and companies, along with municipalities, that follow here, and have for many years. If the information I provide helps in your decision-making process, I humbly ask that you flip me a few bucks in appreciation. My expenses for data, website hosting, and general operations increase every year. My next round of big bills comes in January. I don't mind doing this unless I am financially supported. I would sincerely appreciate it. Winter is about to come for the coastal plain As I mentioned on Facebook Sunday afternoon, the Summer Tires Club's annual meeting is coming up. We've been spoiled by mild late falls, which have led to complacency when switching from summer to winter tires. I had tires and service done to my vehicles a couple of weeks ago, and the dealer I went to said they had not done that many tire switches at that point compared to previous years. I expect the bookings for appointments will increase this week. The Winter Storm Severity Index issued by the Weather Prediction Center shows that most interstate corridors and more populous areas are expected to face moderate travel impacts as the storm approaches. For the first impactful snow of the year, I suspect the drive home on Tuesday will be a slow one for many of us. I expect schools to either go a half day or call off altogether. The Winter Storm Watch will likely be converted to warnings and a weather advisory by the National Weather Service today. Some consistency in model ideas... finallyTrying to figure out the details of this storm has been a PITA due to model disagreement. There has been a wide range of snowfall predictions from media outlets. The European deterministic and ensembles gave me some hesitation. With the model's validation scores high lately, I had to be patient out of respect. The model jogged to the north overnight on Sunday. With the driver and kicker on the continent now in upper-air data capture zones, a clearer picture of how the storm may play out has emerged.  It's still about a 50/50 split with the individual ensemble ideas between those in and around the benchmark 40°N/70°W point and to the south. The clusters to the west indicate the potential for a stronger system as it gets its act together sooner. The reminder again is that Maine is on the fringe of this, and if the system jogs 30-50 miles north or south, it will be a game changer for what the area receives. This is NOT a lock. Important to note, the short-term ideas through the 06z runs early Monday still show some wiggle room.  Tuesday 7 AM (12z) to Wednesday 7 AM (12z) - A look at potential 1-hour snowfall amounts from the NAM3km short-term idea for an idea on timing. and the notion of deformation (snow) bands. For reference, the model is running a bit farther south than the general track, which is why it shows a snowier solution for the shorelines. Snowfall rates of ¼- ¼-½" per hour are expected in areas south and east of the mountains as the flakes begin to fly, potentially increasing to 1"+ or more per hour as the storm intensifies and throws moisture toward the coast. It will be along the coastal front where snowfall has the potential to nuke. You can see the deeper purples indicating 1-2"/hour snowfall rates hugging just offshore. Bring that track inland 30 miles, which is more or less the idea at this point, and some areas will get hit hard for an hour or two. The 48° ocean I mentioned in previous posts will also have a say in this. and it will come in the form of atmospheric lift, leading to intense snowfall rates. It also means pasty slop that will cling to trees and power lines.  A look at southern areas indicates the potential for the coastal front. Closer to shorelines, the snow becomes wetter and sloppier. There could be a mix of junk (ice pellets or freezing rain) and rain along the shorelines as the warm air off the ocean works inland. In typical fashion, ten miles could be the difference between a sloppy inch to a foot of snow where the bands set up and dump.  Further north, the forecast gets trickier as dry air lingers, and there could be a sharp cut-off on amounts. The snow over the interior will be on the drier side, with better consistency and easier to move around. It will also be easier to blow around, which will be a concern for Tuesday night through Thursday. On the subject of wind, there won't be much of it until early evening. The north/northeast winds will pick up and gust in the 25-35 mph range (higher along the coast) into the overnight. I can't rule out power outages where wet snow gets pasted.  Snow squall watch for Thursday Thursday 1 AM (06z) to Friday 1 AM (06z) - An arctic front is expected to enter the region on Thursday, with the risk of snow showers and gnarly squalls to go along with it. This is a more substantial wave than the previous squall events this season. How severe the squalls get depends on how much of the strong wind aloft can mix down. Stay tuned for more on that. Temperatures and outlook into the weekend Guidance keeps going back and forth with idea of a storm or frontal boundary for the weekend. Forecast confidence is low, but worthy to stay updated on. Also, Friday feels like late January. This will help cool the ponds and lakes down with hopes of ice fishing season being able to start on time for a change.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support is needed and appreciated for 2026  Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please extend me the professional courtesy of acknowledging that you are referencing my material, so I can review your final product and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page on this website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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