A bit of ice, rain, and a breeze on the way for Tuesday The area of high pressure that brought in the below-normal cold this past weekend slides to the east on Monday. A warm front is on track to move into the region Monday night, which could bring some light ice in pockets of the mountains and foothills in the overnight hours into early Tuesday morning.  Monday 6 PM (23z) to Tuesday 1 PM (18z) – With the track in a west-to-east form of the warm front with a south/southeast flow, cold air damming is not expected to be the PITA as last Wednesday. With the surface high due east, the cold air has little defense this time. There will be cold pockets around where it hangs longer than guidance thinks, but it will wash out Tuesday morning. As precipitation ends around midday, clouds will break up and allow the sun to show itself, bringing the region the warmest day that it will experience in the next ten.  As the warm front approaches, wind speeds out of the south pick up and then shift to the west on the backside of the front. Speeds could be strong enough to cause some isolated power outages. The wind settles Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A quick hitting snow event likely Wednesday night A cold front approaches the region Wednesday night, bringing the risk of light snow as low pressure moves into the area from the southwest. At this point, enough discrepancy in forecast track ideas raises questions about snowfall amounts for the coastal plain. As the European ensemble indicates, there is higher confidence for the interior. The pencil sketch on the cocktail napkin is for 2-4” snow for the west and north, with lesser amounts closer to the shorelines. This idea will be updated. Some snow possible to start the weekend The third precipitation maker of the week arrives in the Friday/Saturday window. The question with this system is the phase timing between the polar and Pacific jets. An earlier phase would bring heavy snow; a later phase would bring light snow or a complete miss. The idea for now is a chance for light snow across the region, and stay tuned. Winter solstice starts off feeling true to the season  For those who watched their White Christmas go down the river or the storm drain last week, there is hope for snow on the ground in time for the holiday. The cold air behind Thursday’s system should hold what snow falls and keep it, pending how much is received through Saturday. Looking ahead to the holiday itself, I can’t rule out a chance for something Christmas Eve into Christmas as warmer air noses into the area. We’ll see. Make it routine to check the PTW Weather Wall for updates Appreciation for financial help to keep the coffee pot going, help me pay the bills, and train future forecasters Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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