A Christmas miracle for the south? A Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for eastern Maine, northern New Hampshire, the Kingdom region of Vermont, and parts of upstate New York, with the clipper on the way for Christmas Eve. There are hints that the advisory region could be expanded, perhaps across central and western Maine, as snowfall confidence may increase depending on the system's evolution and ideas from guidance. For updated information and the latest forecast, you may want to check out the PTW Weather Wall later in the day. There are questions and concerns about how much snow may fall in the areas not currently under an advisory.  As I’ve mentioned in previous updates, this system does not have much moisture. Liquid equivalent ideas range from one to three-tenths of an inch, with a bit more possible over eastern areas. The bitter cold air over the region means dew points are extremely dry, so it will take a lot of moisture aloft to generate snow. Once snow develops, it will deal with wind as it falls to the surface, which could pulverize fat, fluffy snowflakes into fine particles. Before the flakes make landfall, dry slotting is an enemy that may gobble them up. This entire scenario is depicted in the BUFKIT profile of the NAMNEST 3km model for Sanford. A lot is working against this being a prolific snowmaker over the south, which raises bust potential concerns. The same case could be made for the north. The ideas are better for the western, central, and eastern areas of the state with a bit more moisture to work with, but there is the concern for upper-level wind and low-level dry slotting to contend with in those regions as well.  Monday 7 PM (00z Tuesday) to Tuesday 7 PM (00z Wednesday)--The 1-hour snowfall idea from the same model in chart form shows the concerns that I have mentioned. I am concerned that the short-term guidance is a bit juicy and does not consider the impact on accumulation as a result of the upper-level wind. However, this is a reasonable idea for determining the timing of the system. Southern areas may experience a quick hit of light snow in the wee hours of Christmas Eve, but the best chance comes after sunrise through early afternoon. Northern regions have the best opportunity overnight, ending soon after daylight. Western and central areas see snow through the morning and end in the afternoon. Eastern areas see the steadier snow end later in the afternoon into the early evening but may contend with snow showers overnight into Christmas morning as an inverted trough sets up offshore. The DownEast shorelines may see flurries and/or snow showers on Christmas Day to add to the ambiance of the holiday.  The theme of a high snow-to-water ratio event, 15-20:1, makes this an easy event to clean up. The ski hills should end up on the higher end, but I can see where the valleys could bust on the low end for all the reasons I have mentioned. The further east, the better the chance for 6”+ as the clipper becomes infused with moisture off the Gulf of Maine and brings the MidCoast and DownEast shorelines the best opportunity for higher amounts. Temperature and outlook through the weekend The region appears storm-free until later in the weekend. Ideas continue to flip-flop about what happens early next week, and all four precipitation food groups are on the table with a system late Sunday into Monday. We could see a storm of the same variety on New Year's Eve/New Year's Day. Stay tuned! Make it routine to check the PTW Weather Wall for updates Appreciation for financial help to keep the coffee pot going, help me pay the bills, and train future forecasters Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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