Monday December 9, 2024

12/9/2024

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Warm front to bring snow and ice

The National Weather Service Gray office has posted a winter weather advisory for southern and western areas, with snow and ice expected from Monday afternoon through mid-morning on Tuesday.

Monday 4 PM (21z) to Tuesday 7 AM (12z) – If not for the threat of some light ice accretion, this would be a ho-hum light snow event. A lazy, weak warm front works in overnight that will drop a couple of inches of snow and bring a bit of junk in its wake.

The travel impacts are expected to be minor and affect the overnight traveler. Higher-end amounts are possible around the Fryeburg / Bridgton area, which may get up to around 4”. For most of the western half of the state, this is a 1-2” affair.

Regarding snow clean-up, don’t do it if you can avoid it. Areas of ice accretion in the form of freezing rain and drizzle pockets will pop and dissipate Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The signal for cold air damming is rather loud over the southwest and western interior areas and in the Moosehead / Great North Woods regions. Warm air will win eventually, but the cold air at the surface could put up a strong fight before being flushed out by around midday Wednesday.

Prepare for interior flooding and power outages
Wednesday into Thursday

Tuesday 7 PM (00z Wednesday) to Thursday 10 AM (15z)--The idea from the European model from the Sunday overnight run shows some consistency in the potential forecast track, so it is a fair reference point for now. The model shows the cold air damming signatures very well, but its precipitation-type idea may be a bit warm. Expect precipitation to break out Wednesday morning, with the heaviest working through Wednesday night into the wee hours of Thursday. Given the infusion of the moisture from the south, embedded thunderstorms are a distinct possibility and could be very loud as the cold front works through on heading into the daylight hours Thursday morning.

Wednesday 1 AM (06z) to Thursday 1 PM (18z) – A look at the forecast dew point temperatures here, which are one of the critical components for determining the impact on the snowpack. What is encouraging at this point is the window for the ripening of the base is rather narrow. That said, with the surge of warm air from the south, dew points are expected to climb into the 40s over the mountains and north, which, along with heavy rainfall, will certainly melt off a considerable amount of the pack. The snow will absorb some of the rainfall at the onset, but with the heavy rain moving in Wednesday night, that will take a significant hit.

This is where the concern for flooding comes in.

The Weather Prediction Center's forecast rainfall amounts have increased and may continue to rise. Concerns about flash flooding from runoff on the frozen ground into brooks, streams, and rivers are growing. WPC also maintains a slight risk of flooding from excessive rainfall from Wednesday into Thursday. In some areas, this is going to be a real mess. It may not be as bad as last year's December 18th Grinch storm, but it could be bad enough.

The threat of strong winds continues. The windiest period correlates with the heaviest precipitation Wednesday night into the wee hours of Thursday. The wind shifts to the northwest on the backside, and conditions will remain breezy at times through Friday when the storm heads out over the North Atlantic.

Power outages could be in several thousand, perhaps 100-150K or more, affecting the southern shorelines up into eastern Maine, as well as the higher elevations in the mountains.

With cold air coming in on the backside, for those without generators could be in for some chilly days until power is restored.

The shorelines may escape considerable damage with this storm. As long as the timing of the strongest wind and rain holds, the worst passes through during low tide in the 1 AM hour on Thursday. There could be some splash-over with the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning high tides with the high surf, but the coastal flood threat appears minor to none at this point.

Stay tuned!

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NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.