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Today's update is presented by Allspeed Cyclery and Snow, located on Brighton Avenue in Portland. Check out their Mid-Winter Clearance Sale going on now! If you need you skis or your bike tuned up, they do that too. Thank you to Allspeed for being a long time supporter of PTW! February doing February thingsAfter a rather cold and relatively quiet pattern of January, the storm machine is cranking up thanks to the collapse of the western ridge. After the light snow / ice event Monday night, with additional storms on the way for Thursday and Saturday night into Sunday. Looking further out than that, low confidence ideas are out there for another heading toward Valentines Day. The backloaded winters of the past few years continue. One storm departs as another moves in Areas seeing snow to start Monday see it taper off in the morning as a warm front heads northeast. Much of the region will be sitting in the warm sector of it by midday, which will allow temperatures to climb above freezing for a good portion of the state. The southwest air flow brings the respite from the cold, albeit a brief one. A rather sharp, fast moving clipper arrives Monday evening, and heads out early Tuesday morning.  Monday 1 PM (18z) to Tuesday 7 AM (12z) - Any remaining snow showers around Passamaquoddy Bay exit into the Bay of Fundy as the cold front approaches from the northwest. The frontal boundary combines with a weak low to the south to give it a bit of juice to work with. The HRRR 1 AM (06z) idea presented here of simulated radar indicates the potential for moderate to heavy precipitation along a stalled coastal front which adds a bit of intrigue to the outcome overnight. Anytime the coastal front is present, there is the potential for overperformance in areas, but given the fact that the trough from the northwest is moving in at a rapid pace, it won't have time to bust snowfall amounts on the high end.  Important to note that the forecast trend continues south, which if that continues would bring the chance for accumulating snow into interior York County. Along the cold side coastal front, snow will be pasty, with a drier consistency away from it. Light ice is possible for the southwest interior on up into the Capital District. Any liquid that falls over the south is likely to freeze as temperatures fall after the front passes through. Slick spots are possible everywhere Tuesday morning. Heading into Tuesday, it's shaping up to be a Flying Trash Can Alert day for the urban areas as the northwest wind cranks up with gusts 30-35 mph, with higher gusts possible for the mountains as the cold air pours back in. Wind chill values in the teens below zero for the interior to the teens above zero along the coast can be expected. The next one... Guidance is developing a better idea of how the next system plays out. Snow appears to start out everywhere. The timing of the changeover to ice or rain pending on location is still to be determined. Expect a slick and sloppy day. This is shaping up to be one of the juicer events we've had in a while, so this rough idea presented is subject to change. At this point, wind does not appear to be much of a factor during the storm, but Friday will see similar speeds and gusts to Tuesday, with 30-35 mph the ballpark idea for now. For those thinking about the weekend, the outlook is for a similar event for Saturday night into Sunday, but may be a snowier affair. We'll see. Temperature outlook through the week Current observations and updates are on The Wall 24/7 PTW continues because of the people |
Mike Haggett
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