An active pattern through the rest of the week High pressure will continue to build across the region, bringing hot temperatures on Tuesday. Wildfire smoke lingering into Tuesday will keep the skies hazy, creating air quality issues for the area. A relatively strong cold front moving through on Wednesday has the potential to bring severe storms, with the primary threats being damaging winds and potential flooding. Temperatures will cool down behind the front by the end of the week, with the coolest temperatures coming on Friday. A Canadian high-pressure system is expected to bring warm temperatures and clear skies back to the region by this weekend. The heat is on for the coastal interior Tuesday Ridging across the region will keep temperatures warm Tuesday. Temperatures south of the mountains are likely to reach the mid-80s to low 90s, with heat indices as high as 95º. Dew points will also increase throughout the day, as southwesterly flow advects more moisture into the region. As a weak cold front moves through the area Tuesday afternoon, there could be a few local showers and storms across the far north and west of the mountains.  Wildfire smoke remains an issue in the region, with variable air quality conditions throughout the day on Tuesday. This smoke will keep the skies hazy, with locally poor air quality potentially affecting vulnerable individuals. Those who are sensitive to smoke should remain indoors or take extra precautions to stay safe. Cloud cover dependent storms on Wednesday Wednesday 2 AM (06z) to Thursday 2 AM (06z) - A stronger cold front pushing through the region Wednesday afternoon will bring a better chance of storms to the area. The airmass ahead of the front will be warm and moist (dew points approaching 70°), providing a relatively good environment for storm development. Storm potential will depend on when the cold front passes through and the amount of daytime surface heating that occurs. Current guidance indicates that the cold front will pass through sometime on Wednesday afternoon. If clouds remain blanketed over the region on Wednesday, there is less of a chance that strong storms will develop. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding these storms, so stay tuned for updates as we approach Wednesday.  The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Day 3 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across most of the state (everywhere except the Down East region, at this time) due to the risk of isolated flash flooding from local downpours. The Storm Prediction Center has also issued a Day 3 Marginal Risk (isolated severe storms possible) for southwestern York County, with the primary threat being damaging wind. Stay weather-aware and ensure you have multiple ways to receive alerts, allowing you to take action if necessary. Frontal boundary may stall out and keep showers going over southern areas Thursday The cold front will continue to move southward slowly on Thursday. PWATs (precipitable water, the amount of water vapor in an air column) ahead of the front are expected to be relatively high (1.50-2.40”), allowing for showers to persist in the region as the front sags to the southeast. A cool, dry air mass will move into the area behind the front. This will provide some relief from the heat and humidity across much of the north of the state. The south of the state may see some relief late Thursday, but this depends on the speed of the frontal boundary.  Some models have the front remaining in the state until early Friday morning, while others have it pushing southward by Thursday evening. With the stalled front would come continued rain for the southern half of the state, with locally higher/lower amounts. Confidence in the timing and speed of the front is currently low, so stay tuned for more information moving forward. Cool down on the way to start the weekend Temperatures will continue to cool down into Friday. Highs will be below normal in the southern part of the state, remaining in the low to mid-70s for the day. Temperatures north of the mountains will be even cooler, only peaking in the upper 60s to low 70s. Dew points will also be low across the state, keeping conditions comfortable. Weekend outlook An upper-level ridge will move over the region this weekend. This will bring dry conditions to the state (Dew points in the mid-50s), keeping chances for precipitation low through the beginning of next week. Temperatures will still be relatively cool on Saturday, only peaking in the mid-70s. Temperatures will be on the rise by Sunday, returning to the low to mid-80s. Skies will remain mostly clear with a few scattered clouds this weekend. Temperature outlook through Sunday Today's update prepared by Michigan State student intern Harry Fuess The PTW Weather Wall Updates 24/7 Your financial contributions support the future of PTW |
Mike Haggett
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