 MONDAY: A quasi-stationary front has set up, running southwest to northeast along the coastal plain. This front has brought a break in humidity to the mountains and north, while to the east of the front, dew points are running in the 60s. This front moves inland during the day as the sea breeze picks up around midday and afternoon. Along the sea breeze boundary will be the region to watch for the risk of a popup shower and perhaps a storm heading into the evening.  IMPORTANT NOTE FOR OCEANSIDE INTERESTS: The early afternoon tide is high, and a developed fog bank may decide to move towards shore later in the afternoon into the early evening. I mentioned yesterday that this is a PITA to predict. With dew points in the 60s to the east of the front and ocean temps running from 51-61° with an onshore flow, it’s like cold air damming in winter… it will do what it wants when it wants. This stable air minimizes shower or storm threats but may bring a damp drizzle in spots heading into the evening into the overnight and may be stubborn to leave Tuesday morning. It could be locally dense in spots as well.  TUESDAY: Conditional threat for isolated severe storms over southern areas. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted York County as a marginal risk region in its Day 2 Outlook. The conditional threat is for cloud cover, which is also a big question regarding how hot it gets statewide. Models keep pitching the idea of heat advisory level temperatures for southwestern areas, but there is bust potential if / where cloud cover plays a role. The mantra I preach repeatedly is if the sun comes out, the thunder guns may come out, and this is a wait-and-see scenario.
Fog along the coast continues its PITA role. Seaside areas, please keep in mind. WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY / FRIDAY … A massive subtropical ridge over the Atlantic, along with the remnants of Beryl, will determine how the rest of the week plays out. The ideas are becoming increasingly juicer for a soaking rain (1-2"+) south of The County. There is potential for localized flash flooding along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms, with the severity to be determined. Time will tell how next weekend plays out, but the shower/storm threat may continue into Saturday and Sunday. Have a great day! - Mike |
Mike Haggett
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