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A quick note on my update status before I get into it. I have to hit the road early Tuesday morning to drop a car off for snow tires and service before I head off the work office. With dog walking part of my morning routine which usually takes place after I post my update here, I am going to be cramped for time to get a post up by 6 AM. The PTW Weather Wall is in place for situations such as this where life's demands limit my time. Given the nature of a potential system late week, I will do my best to pass along some ideas at some point during the day, but for sure Wednesday morning.
Weekend system departs with another moving in
After any early morning snow showers clear out over the northern tier of the state early Monday, surface high pressure moves in. While not as windy as Sunday, expect breezy conditions that slowly diminish during the day as an upper level ridge shoves the weekend storm out into the North Atlantic. Temperatures range from the 30s north to 50s south, and the wind will make it feel cooler.
Tuesday's mixed bag
The National Weather Service Gray office has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for western areas due to the threat of some light ice accretion and snow on the roadways from 1 AM to 1 PM Tuesday as a warm front to the south tries to nose into the region.
As mentioned in Sunday's update, there is a cold air damming signal here over the western interior to be aware of that could extend the amount of freezing rain into the day. 
Tuesday 6 AM (11z) to Wednesday 6 AM (11z) - There is potential for areas of patchy freezing drizzle to break out in the early hours of Tuesday morning. The main moisture shield is expected to move into southwestern areas by late morning and overspread the rest of the state in the afternoon, ending from southwest to northeast Tuesday evening into early Wednesday.
The liquid equivalent precipitation mean appears to run ±½" across most of the region. For the coastal plain, this is a warm rain event. For the western foothills, mountains on up into The County upwards of 3" of snow is possible, with the risk of a pasty slop along the coastal front. The taller ski hills may be able to squeeze 4-6" out of this at higher elevation. Given the fact this is an inside runner, the wind direction is expected to be out of the southeast and may gust in the 20-25 mph range along the coast and mountains, before shifting to the west heading into Wednesday. 
To storm or not to storm late week, that is the question
Looking at four different operational model ideas in regards to storm potential late week clearly shows that a high level of uncertainty exists on how this is going to play out. The main question is how sharp an upper level trough sets up and the timing of it to fire a surface low. As of early Monday morning, there is still no clear cut answer. Two key pieces of upper level energy are out of range of radiosonde (weather balloon) sampling. A better read on this may not come until midday Tuesday as both of those pieces enter continental air space in time for the 7 AM (12z) launch and model suites that come after that.
I'll admit that this is a bit unnerving at this point in time given the close proximity to the holiday, but patience will be required for a more accurate forecast idea.
On Sunday afternoon I posted this update on Facebook discussing model verification, challenges, and my forecasting philosophy. It's worth it to have a read to cut through the noise of what certain media outlets and personalities present to consumers.
Temperature outlook through Sunday
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NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.
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Mike Haggett
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