An unsettled week ahead The view from above shows October acting like it should, with one caveat: the absence of a juicy moisture hose from the southwest. Upper-level ridging over the Gulf MexiAmerica has kept the stream turned off and has played a role in the ongoing drought and neutered hurricanes in that region to this point. Water vapor shows moisture trying to move northeastward, but it is on the west side of the trough, which keeps it more to the south. The system moving into the region on Monday is weakening on arrival, which presents a bit of a forecast challenge on rainfall amounts. Some rain and wind for Monday Monday 6 AM to Tuesday 6 AM - One-hour rainfall forecast estimates from the NAM3km short-term model show the approaching frontal boundary entering western and southern areas by midday and moving northeastward into the evening. It's easy to see the juice with the system drying out as it passes through. A weak upper low forms during the day on Monday and slows down a bit to keep showers in the forecast for Tuesday, primarily over the mountains and north, with a few stray showers/sprinkles over the south and east.  The western interior appears to get a fair rainfall out of this, with the south/southeast facing slopes of the mountains having a reasonable chance of upwards of 2" thanks to orographic lifting. The boundary runs out of moisture as it tracks to the east, which leads to bust potential. With cooler air moving in aloft, there is a chance for a rumble or two of thunder through late afternoon.  A south/southeast wind direction could bring gusty conditions along the shorelines from Bar Harbor westward along the shorelines. Leaf drop along with a few limbs coming down are possible. The wind will be the gustiest ahead of the frontal boundary and diminish on the backside in the aftermath.  Outlook and temperatures through the week Tuesday 8 AM (12z) to Saturday 8 PM (00z Sunday) - A look at steering level energy and atmospheric heights shows a trailing upper low entering the region on Wednesday, and another on Friday. Shower chances are better for the mountains and north, with hit or miss showers and sprinkles to the south and east through Saturday, with Sunday being a toss up at this point.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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