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Saturday August 16, 2025

8/16/2025

 

Low humidity & a bit more of a breeze raises fire danger

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If not for the elevated fire danger threat, the day would be perfect. While the wind appears light in the morning, the sea breeze picks up in the afternoon and could be gusty at times, reaching well inland before settling later in the day. Clouds will be few and far between. Fog may develop around Acadia and the Passamaquoddy Bay region late in the afternoon, and could linger into Sunday morning. 

Showers with a gusty storm possible Sunday

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Sunday 5 AM to Monday 2 AM - Humidity levels increase overnight and into Sunday morning ahead of a cold front that will pass through the region. Areas of patchy fog are possible for the coast to start the day, and may be stubborn to leave. 

Guidance indicates the shortwave boundary is on the sharper side, meaning storms that form could bring damaging wind components as well as some hail.  There is the risk of a gnarly storm or two out of this. 

The general idea that northern areas receive a better chance of rainfall, with lesser amounts to the south, continues. 

Erin likely to stay well east, but shoreline concerns exist

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As of the 5 AM Saturday advisory, Erin is a CAT3 major hurricane and appears on track to intensify one level higher. Confidence has increased that the storm will stay well away, and the region may not see any clouds associated with the system. While Erin "weakens" as it reaches the higher latitudes, likely at CAT1 status as it passes by to the east, it will stir the ocean and bring swells and surf. The evening high tides are a bit of a concern in the Wednesday to Friday window as they begin to astronomically rise ahead of the new moon on the way. Time will tell if a risk of minor splash over for the typical low-lying areas may come of it. Dangerous rip currents will be a concern for swimmers, and with many of the summer lifeguards back in college, there is a beach safety risk to be concerned with, along with curious onlookers.

Stay tuned for more on this. 

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Temperatures and outlook through Friday

The region is expected to remain dry on Monday and Tuesday. Guidance is toying with the idea of the chance of what is known meteorologically as a "mesoscale convective system" (MCS), which is a cluster of thunderstorms developing to the west. Some ideas are that moisture associated with it may reach the southern and western areas of Maine on Wednesday. Whether or not that happens and what, if any, atmospheric drama may come along with it is to be determined. After that, it may be next weekend before the next chance for rain comes. 
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​NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.

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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Weather-Ready Nation
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    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association
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