 SATURDAY… An upper-level trough moves east across the Great Lakes. Ridging ahead of it may bring a shower for the north and west. Dew points are expected to rise into the mid-to-upper 60s as the region sits in the warm sector. High temperatures range from the 70s south to the 80s north, where more sun is expected. Areas of fog and patchy drizzle could be stubborn along the coast, and temperatures may hold in the upper 60s.  Long wave ocean swell from Ernesto has arrived in the Gulf of Maine. Seas gradually build during the day. A Small Craft Advisory and High Surf Advisory begin Saturday afternoon. Rip current risks run moderate to high. SATURDAY NIGHT… Expect areas of fog to develop once again for the coast and potential for patchy areas inland. A risk of a shower is possible overnight along the Quebec border region. Overnight lows, a bit on the warm side, fall back into the upper 50s to mid-60s. SUNDAY… The upper-level trough continues to slowly move east into the area. Similar conditions are expected as Saturday, but with more of a chance of a shower/thunderstorm over the west and north, and perhaps along the afternoon sea breeze front. Humid conditions continue. High temperatures are mainly in the 70s, but a few 80° readings are possible where the sun breaks through. Expect the wind speed to pick up out of the south/southeast as the surface front approaches. Surf and swell increase a bit higher along the coastline.  MONDAY… The region wakes up with Ernesto well to the east. Showers are expected to develop over northern, western, and southern areas in the morning and expand eastward in the afternoon. The Weather Prediction Center shows the south, west, and north at risk for isolated flash flooding associated with heavy showers and possible thunderstorms as a cold front passes through the region. The highest surf from the tropical system is expected to impact the region through Monday night. With the overnight tides at an astronomical peak, some areas of splash-over are possible. The seas begin to subside on Tuesday as Ernesto races away toward the North Atlantic. It may be Wednesday before ocean hazards diminish to safer levels. EXTENDED OUTLOOK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD... An omega block situation has the potential to set up with the cold pool aloft over Maine. As we have seen recently, there is the risk of afternoon showers and storms until the pattern shifts more zonal later in the week. Your support of PTW is appreciated as |
Mike Haggett
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