And here you thought the humidity was high already... A warm front associated with morning showers and storms Friday overnight into Saturday morning will drive up the humidity levels even more. Dew points across much of the state feel like the swamp in the Florida Everglades. Northern areas have the best chance for sun; that is where the heat will come as the index tops out in the 90s. Areas of fog riddle the shorelines, and it won't be much of a beach day.  Saturday 6 AM to Sunday Midnight - With the air column this thick with moisture, sunlight is no bueño as the risk of storms breeding torrential rainfall, localized flash flooding, and potential for gusty downdraft winds is the main concern. With the region sitting in the warm sector, another warm and humid night is expected, with overnight lows in the mid-60s to low 70s. Another round of showers and storms on Sunday Sunday Midnight to 7 PM – Scattered showers with the risk of strong to severe storms are possible to finish off the weekend. Northern areas have the best chance of staying dry for most of the day. Southern areas that need rain will get a better chance for rainfall. By judging the northbound traffic on the Maine Turnpike as I made my Friday evening commute home, travel may be slow going Sunday afternoon due to torrential rainfall, reducing visibility and posing a hydroplane risk. Expect winter-like slow travel on highways heading into the evening.  Outlook for the week Sunday 8 PM to Saturday 8 PM – This is a look at the European ensemble mean forecast precipitable water values, which I use from time to time to indicate the difference between dry and humid air. Seeing what is going on with the tropical system to the south and the potential of a stall out of the frontal boundary passing through on Monday gives me little confidence for the coast as to how this week is going to play out. The north and the mountains get a break from the humidity and see dew points fall into the 50s. There is fair confidence that the coast will see a reduction in the moisture in the air column, which will drop dew point temperatures down into the 60s. That noted, Southern New England is expected to stay swampy. Disturbances flowing along the boundary bring the risk of showers and storms. I am hanging onto optimism that the state can squeak out a mainly dry day on Tuesday. That may be the only day, pending on the upper air battle between the offshore ridge and the trough to the northwest, while moisture from the tropical system moves northeastward between the two.  My concern with the tropical system is the development of a pre-frontal trough that will bring copious rainfall to the area later in the week. Given where the stationary front sets up will dictate where the heavy rain comes. Of course, the wild card feature in this is the tropical system itself. It’s expected to be a slow mover through Florida, and where and when the connection to the offshore frontal boundary takes place is still to be figured out.  The dry areas along the coast have a solid chance of erasing most, if not all, of the recent seasonal rainfall deficits by next weekend. There is definitely wiggle room for adjustment. Overall, it appears to be a wet week for the coast, drier to the north, and hit-or-miss chances in between. Stay tuned! PTW... powered by you Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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