Saturday PM Update...A quick hit of snow before the Big Chill arrives
Before I get into it here, I am a bit under the weather, and as a result, this post is not as thorough as some I have issued with storm events. The important features will be discussed. The PTW Weather Wall is there for you with the finer details that update 24/7. There are questions with this storm that could affect outcome, and I will hit on on that.
Before that, there is Saturday
No real changes in thinking here as I have discussed over the past two days. There is still a slight risk of patchy freezing drizzle Saturday morning before the warm front arrives and brings the rain and snow shower activity in the afternoon, ending Saturday night.
Between the mild temperatures, melting snow, and rain along the coast, black ice may form on the roadways as the Arctic front passes through overnight. Discrepancies in solutions exist Sunday night into Monday
Before I left the work office due to illness Friday afternoon, I began to see the early calls for snowfall amounts on social media, and I just shook my head. Snow lovers are just dying for a big dumper. To be honest, I like a good snowstorm myself, but I've learned that there is no integrity with wishcasting. Weather forecasting is hard. I am not going "all in" unless there is a high probability rate of it occurring. While the region can certainly expect snow Sunday night into Monday, there are discrepancies this close to the event that loom large. Seeing how poorly operational models have done as of late, the fact we're back into a drought, and the assortment of outcomes being displayed at this point, there is reasons for the caution flag to be raised.
To cut through the bull in a well thought out way, NWS Caribou meteorologist Anne Strauser nailed it in the technical area forecast discussion posted early Saturday morning... A deepening surface low will approach the area Sunday, cross the Gulf of Maine Sunday night, and move north up the Bay of Fundy into the day on Monday. This surface low will be situated under the left exit region of a strengthening jet streak, with this streak approaching 180 kts by the time the surface low moves into our area.
To simplify it further, an open wave that the ECMWF & NAM ideas are pitching would mean less snow, in the 3-6" range for the coast. Should the GFS & Canadian ideas win out, that could raise totals in the 6-12" range.
Another hat tip Mike Cempa, a long time lead forecaster from the NWS Gray office, who posted this in the Friday afternoon discussion: As for the snowfall, the bulk of it will be Sunday night, probably more in the evening than tan toward daybreak, but significant model differences make amounts uncertain. The GFS and the CMC are both more robust with the QPF, as they tend to show better phasing with the 500 MB low. However, the ECMWF and its ensemble still favor and weak phasing and progressive system, and given the skill of the Euro, I’ll lean toward it, because it’s been consistent, where some of the models haven’t been. Also, the old adage that says when you’re in a drought, forecast a drought, seems to favor sticking with less precip. Lows Sunday night drop into the teens to low 20s. Monday will see the colder air begin to work in but the coldest air will shift in for Tue-Wed. 
The bottom line here is the coast gets the most, with DownEast areas in the jackpot region. This will be a high ratio snowfall, with the fluff factor being high. The wind will damage the flakes as they fall, which will reduce their size, and could effect how much is measured. Snow is going to blow around for days after, which will cause localized areas of drifting across the entire state. Freezer burn level wind chills will make clean up a brutal task, and for those living in open areas, a continuous affair.
Stay tuned for updates. Temperatures through Friday
Just a reminder that wind chill values during the stretch between Monday night and Thursday will run in the -35 to -10° range. While temperatures rise heading into next weekend, we'll still have the biting wind.
Be ready for the deep cold...
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Mike Haggett
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