|
The pattern is picking up, which will require more discussion and insight to help you make the decisions that you need to. I am not much of a one-image wonder for the doomscrollers on the socials, nor am I into the clickbait thing. I post with purpose and meaning, and one image does not tell the whole story. In the world of TV and NOAA mets moving in and out of the area or the business, I keep going. I'll have your back as long as you have mine. PTW is short on funds for 2026 and could use your support. I am not here to support an ego; I am here to serve you, as long as I have the funds to continue. A break on Saturday, snow to rain on Sunday A warm front is expected to work into the region on Sunday. There is enough cold around for snow to start fluffy, but as moisture works in from the southwest, it will get sloppier. This could be a good system for the taller peaks of the ski hills, where snow stays drier for longer. Interior areas may see a winter weather advisory issued at some point on Saturday, but this is a marginal snow event, and it will be up to the NWS's discretion whether to post one. Roads are likely to be slick. With the cold crashing heading into Monday, what slop comes will need to be dealt with before it turns into cement. Before that, we have Saturday...  It will be a chilly one with temperatures running a handful of degrees below normal. Snow showers are likely to continue in the mountains through the morning. A weak area of high pressure shuts down the natural snow machine and temporarily slows the windmill. The breeze picks up again on Sunday morning. Timing for Sunday:  Sunday 7 AM (12z) to Monday 1 AM (06z) - A look at 1-hour liquid equivalent in this loop, as there is some play on precipitation type. Where it gets interesting is along the rain/snow line over the interior, where snow may be locally heavy along the coastal front. Areas around Route 2 and north of the Airline in eastern regions may see a quick thump that may bring accumulation rates in the 1-2" per hour range. With most of the precipitation ending soon after midnight, road crews should be able to get the main drags cleaned up in time for the Monday morning drive, but the side roads could be dicey. Snow showers will continue in the mountains, and it will be a breezy one with temperatures falling over the hills and north through the day. The wind settles Monday night, bringing the coldest night of the season thus far, as radiational cooling sets in for Tuesday morning. That cold plays a role in what comes next.  The hard and fast truth about Tuesday into Wednesday Given the hype around operational model ideas that social meteorologists, wishcasters, and armchair forecasters have passed around, I will bring some sanity to the discussion. First, the two key energy sources associated with this storm are located south of Alaska (the driver) and on the Russian side of the Arctic (the kicker). The driver piece makes landfall Saturday night. The kicker won't reach radiosonde space until Sunday afternoon. Guidance is dealing with convective feedback upstream, which has produced some big snow ideas. I've been looking at 150+ individual ensembles over the past few days, and the 25% or so that indicate 6" or more snow potential for the coast have a sharper, negative trough. Roughly 50% are more neutral, and 25% are slightly positive. For a significant snow event, you need a sharply negative trough, which usually comes with an intense blocking high to the northeast, helping steer and energize the system. Second, the track near the benchmark "B" at 40°N/70°W shows promise that snow is the outcome for precipitation type. The suggested track to the east/northeast, south of Nova Scotia, will require rapid intensification to bring significant snow to the coast. With 75% of the ensemble's ideas neutral or slightly positive at this point, the idea appears foolish. With the kicker coming out of one of the coldest parts of the hemisphere, guidance may be rushing it, which isn't a huge surprise, as cold air makes guidance look foolish most of the time. This is why I can't buy a sharper negative trough idea in time for a big snowmaker.  The bottom line here is that with the suggested storm track flirting around the benchmark, Maine is on the fringe of it. Looking at the potential for 3 or more inches of snow from the Friday overnight run of the European model, a jog in the track 30 miles south cuts the totals; a jog northward increases the potential amounts. Add to that the 48° ocean temperature with wind out of the northeast blowing warmer air into the cold, which may bring sloppy wet snow. What the 10:1 snow ratio maps indicate as 6" or more may only yield half of that, given the lower snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR). Given the dynamics, I am guarded about the outcome. I am encouraged to a certain extent by the idea that guidance storm development is hinting at occurring more to the west, which I hope continues for the sake of the drought. We need some prolific precipitation makers to make up for water deficits. Late phases and the development of leftover atmospheric trash (decaying upper-level lows) have been the general pattern for the past 20 months, which is why we are in a drought situation. We'll see what happens. Family owned and operated to help you rebuild Temperatures and outlook into next weekThe snowmakers for the ski hills will keep the guns going. Well below normal temperatures are on the way for next week. With deeper cold settling in late week, we may see another snow event Friday into Saturday next week. Stay tuned!  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
|
