The atmosphere is acting like fall After a seasonably cool day on Friday, temperatures warm up for the day before cooling down as we head into next week. The day will be mainly sunny with some high cloud cover from the storm to the south, which will dim the afternoon sky over southern areas. Northern areas may experience the same, as a weak boundary passes through southeastern Quebec. A bit of a westerly breeze freshens the air at times before settling in the evening as high pressure settles in. I've indicated "the spoiler" on this water vapor image. That upper low throws the block that keeps the developing MidAtlantic storm to the south.  Friday, 8 PM (00z Saturday) to Tuesday, 2 AM (06z) - This looks at vorticity (upper-level energy) and is both comical and sad at the same time. The spoiler low gets caught up in the ridge, spins around the Great Lakes, which aggravates the ridge to put up a blocking high to the northwest of it over northern Maine. It gets rejected and shoved to the south and swallows up the weak upper low over the southeastern part of the country. A strong ridge over the Midwest then kicks it to the east. The crown of the ridge that extends over the north blocks the energy from tracking northeast. For a region that desperately needs rainfall, this is painful. Maine remains on the fringe of the storm Ensemble ideas have tightened up a bit, but by and large, they remain to the southwest of the benchmark "B" 40°N/70°W point, which essentially shuts out northern Maine from receiving rainfall. The model debate is still raging on about how much southern areas get from it. The dry high is the enemy. It's not beyond guidance to overcook precipitation amounts, especially the European model, but the track and consistency are there.  As I have stated over the past couple of days, York County has the best chance to receive the most rainfall from this system, regardless of the amount. The caution flags continue to fly on the amounts the region may get. I mentioned in a post on X yesterday afternoon that this is a trap storm. The spoiler upper-low, in conjunction with all that is happening within a strong ridge, indicates high uncertainty and bust potential for rainfall amounts. Onto where confidence increases...  While the set up is not exactly the classic "leaf stripper" storm, given the drought, it may as well be. The shoreline areas are likely to receive the higher gusts. Dry limbs may fly in some areas and could bring localized power outages. As the storm tracks to the east on Tuesday, the breeze settles down somewhat. Seeing what is in the pipeline after this, breezy conditions are likely to be a thing, which it is October after all.  Tides are coming off astronomical highs but are still elevated. The National Weather Service in Gray will likely post a high surf advisory given the holiday weekend. The Monday afternoon high tide has a projected height of over 10' for Portland, and with the east/northeast wind pushing the water, storm surge of a couple of feet is possible. Combined with the waves, splash over and minor coastal flooding is potentially there for the usual low lying areas and seawalls. The ocean continues to be rough through midweek. Fall is a great time to play weekend golf! Temperatures and outlook through FridayAn upper low is expected to enter into the region on Wednesday into Thursday which will bring the next chance for rain. Looking into next weekend, there are ideas of the potential for an inside runner, which is exactly what we need to bring rainfall. Stay tuned.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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