The pieces to the weather pattern through midweek The water vapor image from just after 3 AM Saturday indicates all of the players on the continent for our weather pattern through midweek. The region has experienced tastes of fall here and there over the past week, and it will certainly feel like it in the coming week. Your truly wore dress pants to the office and touched off the fireplace at the house for the first time in months on Friday. Winter is coming.  Saturday 8 AM to Tuesday 8 PM - The 500mb steering level showing wind and atmospheric heights from the European model point of view shows the evolution of the pieces discussed in the water vapor image. The strong ridges and strong troughs indicated here show the amplification of the atmosphere as cold air from the Arctic begins to battle with the warmth in the south. October tends to be our most active month for storms and precipitation based on historical perspective. While a fair portion of the region has been in abnormal to moderate drought in the past couple of months, we'll see that deficit begin to get chipped away.  Saturday 8 AM to Wednesday 8 PM - Looking at it from the surface perspective, the areas of high pressure associated with the ridging have stronger areas of low pressure spinning off around the troughs. Seeing sub-980mb storms in the Gulf of Alaska this time of year indicates the magnitude of the western ridge. It's acting like a cut-off, but as cold air and disturbances hammer against the top end, it allows waves of energy to trickle down the other side of it. The result is strong troughs with cold air trailers, and efficient precipitation makers. Showers depart Saturday morning, wind cranks Saturday 8 AM to 2 PM - Low pressure situated near the Gaspe peninsula heads east and drags a cold front through in the morning. The storm gets an injection of energy and intensifies on its way out the door, which will crank the wind up, and hauls cold air in. Snow showers are possible in the afternoon for the higher elevations as upslope energy passes through on the backside.  A stiff breeze amplifies in the morning but as the storm quickly exits to the east, the wind settles down in the afternoon into the evening. The wind will strip leaves off the trees and could bring potential for some isolated power outages over western areas and into the central highland regions. Dry for most areas Sunday, rain moves in for Monday Sunday 4 AM to Tuesday 8 PM - For most areas of the state, Sunday appears to be mainly dry. Rain showers / sprinkles are possible over the south but may not amount to much as the weak surface high to the north keeps dry air around and may not allow much in the way of measurable amounts until later in the day. As the surface low flares up and moves eastward, the precipitation shield enhances and showers break out over the entire state in the Sunday overnight hours into early Monday. Rain showers in various intensity work through the region on Monday. The breeze is expected to kick up in the afternoon, which will cause more leaf drop, and bring the potential for some slick spots on roadways. Showers end over the south and east Monday night. The surface low becomes vertically stacked with the upper low and becomes cut-off. The injection of cold air that comes in behind is likely to generate higher elevation snow showers and rain showers for lower elevations through midweek.  A good hit of needed rainfall is on the way, which is important to gather what we can before the eventual ground freeze. This should take the edge off the drought regions.  I know there are a bunch of different ideas from operational ideas on potential snowfall amounts that are out there. The bottom line for snow of any accumulation value this time of year depends on when below freezing temperatures crash below 5,000'. Some models bring it in earlier, which means more in the way of frozen precipitation, others later which means less. It all boils down to the intensity of the surface low and the timing of its arrival. I think 1-3" (more possible for Katahdin and the Whites) is fair bet at this juncture, with accumulation chances starting Monday night and continuing through Wednesday morning. Temperature outlook through Friday Without your support, there is no PTW Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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