 It’s been a while since I have done a bit of teaching. Thanks to a screaming cat at 3 AM telling me I needed to get out of bed when I didn’t have to, here I am. The graphic here is that of a SKEW-T profile from the BUFKIT program, using the 00z HRRR model idea for Sanford at 3 PM Saturday afternoon. I have taken the SKEW angles out of the SKEW-T to make it easier to understand the lines involved and make you not want to question your vision in case you went out for a few drinks last night. I love sharing these once in a while because you never see them used in the media much because they are a complicated tool to explain in a 2½ minute TV hit. To forecasters, this is the best tool in the box to look at the atmosphere horizontally and see things the vertical charts do not depict. A neat word on the graphic, DRY ADIABATIC, needs to be defined. To take it a step further and make it easier for the average Joe and Jane to understand, a dry adiabatic lapse rate is the rate at which the temperature of a parcel of dry air decreases as the parcel is lifted in the atmosphere. The graphic's lines that go from northwest to southeast are guides to indicate this. This HRRR idea here shows it near perfection. Brutally cold air aloft with a major dew point depression funnels into the area this afternoon. There is a slight inversion at around 4500’, as noted by the green dew point and red forecast temperature line, which keeps the crazy wind between 70-100+ knots upstairs. However, the wind mixer riding along the dry adiabatic line brings in the below-freezing dew points, which will dry tree debris and, with gusty wind, helps to dry the debris out quicker. The other meteorological phenomenon here is cold air advection. In a setup like this, the cold pours into the area with little resistance, and the dry adiabatic lapse rate on this graphic also indicates that. The region gets slapped in the face with October reality tonight and through Monday. Cold, dry air + gusty wind = elevated fire concerns. The Storm Prediction Center has flagged southern Maine for elevated fire risk on Sunday. Saturday's drying sets up the risk on Sunday as gusty wind and even drier air funnel in. We may see a Red Flag Warning for the first time since the spring of 2022. USE EXTREME CAUTION with flammable materials and outdoor grills until further notice. PLEASE contact your local fire department or forest/park ranger for burn guidance. Until we get a good soaker, we will be in a tinder box, and it may be a while before we see rain of any value.   Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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