A day to stay weather aware I am not one to sound alarms unless necessary. I despise model hype. Those who are simply looking to spread fear for clicks and shares are disingenuous and worthy to be blocked. I started my journey into forecasting because of a busted forecast. People look at me like I am on crack at weather conferences because of it. The misinformation in the weather world is as widespread as tips on how to improve one's golf game, and most of it sucks.  The dynamics are there for this to be one of the better chances for severe storms. Whenever the trajectory of the storm track is to the north-northeast, with a low-level jet running at 40-60 knots and dew points of 65°F or higher, along with ample heat, it raises an eyebrow. With the north-northeast track, cloud cover will determine the extent of atmospheric drama created. This is where the conditional threat comes into play. Depending on how much cloud cover is generated as storms form in the early afternoon, the extent of the severe chance will be dictated. If the sun stays out... look out.  Saturday Noon to 10 PM: The 06z (2 AM) HRRR idea presented here indicates the spin that could potentially evolve in the atmosphere. The spin will cause storms to rotate. When storms rotate, there is the risk of tornadic activity. The model here suggests that possibility. You need to be aware of it and make sure that you have ways to be alerted to it.  If a tornado warning is issued, know where to go. The best place to go is in a basement or crawl space. If that is not an option, a room away from windows or in a bathtub with a mattress may be the safest bet. While most tornado warnings in Maine have a low validation rate, downdraft wind damage is the usual outcome. It is essential to take warnings seriously. It would be a good idea to clean up the yard of anything that could go airborne and secure the grill cover.  Saturday 10 AM to Sunday 3 AM: The cold front approaches in the afternoon, which is perfect timing to capitalize on the high temperatures of the day. Showers and storms populate as the front progresses towards the shorelines in the afternoon. Expect areas of heavy rainfall as precipitable water values (moisture in the air column) push upwards of 2". This could cause reduced visibility, ponding on roadways, and localized flash flooding due to severe runoff resulting from the bone-dry ground. Those with flood-prone basements should be aware. As the sun sets, the severe storm threat diminishes with it. There could be a few rumbles into the overnight as the front crawls into the Gulf of Maine. Expect areas of fog to break out, which could be locally dense, through Sunday morning. Boundary expected to stall along coast on Sunday Sunday 3 AM to Monday 2 AM: Guidance has come into better agreement that the frontal boundary stalls over the Gulf of Maine. A weak area of low pressure is expected to form along it and bring showers to the region, with the best chance of precipitation occurring on the coastal plain. As the low tracks to the northeast and the upper-level trough digs in, showers end from southwest to northeast Sunday afternoon into the evening.  While this will NOT be a drought buster, it's something. Most areas south and east of the mountains have a solid chance to pick up ½-1"+ of rainfall, with locally higher amounts that may reach or exceed 2". Rainfall rates in heavier showers could easily exceed 2"+ per hour, indicating the tropical nature of the airmass ahead of the boundary. This is where the concern for localized flash flooding lies in areas where the downpours occur. Crowe's offers emergency services statewide Outlook and temperatures through late next weekBreezy conditions are expected on Monday as high pressure moves into the region. The wind drops on Monday night, and with a clear sky, it sets up frost potential over the interior on Tuesday morning. Dry times are expected to return, with the next chance for rain unknown at this point.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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