Stay aware for storms along the coastal plain A cold front works through the north in the morning and progresses southeastward in the afternoon. A warm southwest flow ahead of it juices the atmosphere. With the destabilization of the atmosphere, showers and isolated strong to severe storms are expected to develop that could bring gusty winds, hail, loud cloud-to-ground lightning, and a quick hit of much-needed rainfall.  Sunday 6 AM to Monday Midnight - The general idea on timing presented here has showers moving through the north this morning and entering the west, east, and south in the afternoon. Northern areas dry out by early afternoon, with the last of the precipitation clearing the coast by early evening.  Sunday 10 AM to Monday Midnight - The focus here is on wind given the bone-dry conditions around much of the state, with ongoing wildfire concerns. The wind starts from the southwest and then flips to the north behind the boundary. The HRRR model concept suggests a potential gust front associated with the passage with speeds upward of 30-40 mph. With rainfall/storm ideas once again in potluck fashion, extreme caution with flammable materials, along with grills and smokers, is strongly suggested. The breeze continues into the overnight hours and gradually settles later on Monday. Along with the breeze comes fall-like dew points Sunday 6 PM to Monday Noon - Dry air pours into the region Sunday night into Monday which will feel refreshing, but is very concerning given the drought conditions. Lowering dew points and a breeze keep wildfire concerns elevated, no matter how much rainfall comes on Sunday that are fortunate to get it. The moisture will evaporate very quickly with low relative humidity levels and abundant sun to extract it. Hurricane Erin to bring shoreline impacts late week File Erin under "Well that escalated quickly" as it went from tropical storm to CAT5 in under 48 hours, but weakened overnight as it reorganizes itself. The consistent theme with the forecast has been that the storm has tracked to the south, and as a result, the system is tracking more to the west. Where on Thursday the storm was expected to track near Bermuda, it's now expected to track closer to the outer banks of the Carolinas. It could be CAT3, given the very favorable ocean temperatures that lie ahead. As the storm moves north, it will get picked up by the jet stream associated with an upper-level trough working into the region on Wednesday, which will keep the system well to the east, with a slight chance of it clipping Newfoundland before racing off into the North Atlantic.  Tuesday 8 PM (00z Wednesday) to Sunday 8 PM (00z Monday) - Swells from Erin enter the offshore waters on Monday night into Tuesday and then work into the Gulf of Maine starting on Wednesday. The early estimates for surf in exposed areas are roughly around 10 feet by Thursday night. Astronomical tides elevate with evening high tides, the concern heading into late week. My area of concern is for the MidCoast and DownEast areas, which are clear of the horn of Cape Cod, may deal with the potential for splash over and beach erosion. Dangerous rip currents are concerning for beachgoers due to the lack of lifeguards, raising safety concerns.  Temperatures and outlook through SaturdayOur next chance for rainfall comes on Wednesday as the upper-level trough moves into the region to steer Erin away, but it is unlikely to produce any drought relief. A tropical wave behind Erin will be the next feature to watch to see if that may bring meaningful rainfall as we head into the last week of August, but at this vantage point, it is hard to bet on.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support is needed and appreciated for 2026 |
Mike Haggett
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