The big picture After a week of being stuck in tropical steam, the pattern begins to shift over the next couple of days. The region will have to dodge showers and the potential for isolated storms through Monday. After this steam wave moves out, the trend is cooler and more comfortable statewide starting Tuesday. Most of the region may escape rain heading into the middle of the week. Questions creep in after that about what happens with Debby and how that may impact our weather heading into next weekend.  Sunday 6 AM to 10 PM – The coastal plain has the best chance for showers with a chance rumble through the morning hours. A shortwave disturbance arrives later in the day and brings the potential for showers and thunder heading into the overnight. Not all areas see action, but all areas have a chance to get something heading into Monday.  With southwestern areas expected to deal with more cloud cover, cooler readings are expected there. Pokes of sun spike temperatures quickly. Northern and eastern areas have the better chance of staying dry, but I can't rule out a potential shower in those regions. Expect another round of showers and storms for the region on Monday as a strong cold front works into the region to get the humidity out of here. Timing is still to be ironed out, and that has impacts on a potential severe threat. I will update on this Monday morning.  Debbie to bring major flooding to parts of the southeast Tropical systems are bad, but they are worse when they are slow movers. Debby is shaping up to be that kind of beast. Given the volume of rain, this is potentially catastrophic on an impact scale. Blocking to the north due to the trough that dries our region out, along with strong ridges to the west and east, the storm has nowhere to go but sit and dump. This is where the Saffir-Simpson scale of measuring tropical storm intensity becomes worthless. Flooding is always underrated with tropical systems, and this will be a reminder that it should be the first thought in the minds of all who are in its path, whether by storm surge or actual rainfall. Forecast uncertainty exists regarding how much rain Maine will receive. The region could escape on the dry end, making this forecast idea a bust. There are many moving parts still to be figured out. At this point, I am not expecting any shoreline issues, as the surf is expected to stay well to the south and east. Updates will come as the week unfolds. Stay tuned. For those who have yet to contribute to PTW, |
Mike Haggett
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