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Today's update is presented by Crowe’s Restoration of Arundel. For emergency fire & water damage (pipe bursts), mold, or biohazard issues in western and southern Maine, call them at 207-467-3152... A quiet day before snow arrives The Arctic dome of high pressure that starts Sunday moves offshore in the morning and sets up a southwest flow. A warm front moving in will increase the clouds and funnel moisture into the region. The close proximity of the high over the Gulf of Maine in conjunction with the frontal boundary on the way brings the risk of ocean effect snow showers developing in the afternoon which may bring some light accumulations of upwards of an inch of fluff and may slick the roads up where it falls. Another fluffernutter overnight into Monday Sunday 11 AM (16z) to Monday 3 PM (20z) - The short terms ideas may not give the threat for the ocean effect snow showers enough justice given the proximity of the high and the warmth of the ocean, but understand the chance is there. Given this is a 10:1 hourly snowfall idea, with this being another high ratio snow event upwards of double that at the onset, the fluff factor may bring snowfall rates upward of an inch an hour at times. Snow ends from southwest to northeast Monday morning in the mid-afternoon.  This is another fun one to figure out accumulation wise given the snow-to-water ratios varying and changing as the warm front moves through. Areas south and east of the mountains are looking at a tenth or two of liquid equivalent, which by doing quick math gives the 2-4" idea, keeping in mind bursts may bring slightly more, and where dry pockets work in, slightly less. The ocean effect snowfall potential may make this forecast bust a bit high, but with warmer air moving in, compaction will knock down the fluff by Monday morning. Another round of snow with light ice potential Monday night Monday 5 PM (22z) to Tuesday 7 AM (12z) - A cold front works through the region Monday night which is expected to bring snow for the north, a threat for a bit of ice over the western foothills, and rain showers for the coastal plain. This is another quick mover. The window for precipitation is narrow, but there is enough juice involved to bring enough snow, ice, and rain to be problematic for overnight / early morning travel.  Another light snow event over the mountains, north, and eastern interior is expected. There could be light icing along the Route 2 corridor region from around Skowhegan to the west, but may not amount to much. Any rain showers over the coastal plain may create pockets of black ice as temperatures fall in the wee hours of Tuesday. It could be another slick commute to start the day. A mess on the way Thursday Thursday 1 AM (06z) to Friday 7 PM (00z Saturday) - The region hasn't seen a junk storm in a while, but the idea is out there that this could be an impactful one, especially for the cold air damming regions over the southwest interior into the western foothills. While it is too early to get into details with any confidence, the idea of decent icing event is out there and is growing with a bit of concern as the timing of the cold front on the back side has narrowed. My idea at this point is where ice forms on Thursday, the cold air dam may not break in order to allow melting to take place before the cold front arrives.  The individual ensemble ideas to the northwest are rather scattered at this point, which indicates changes are likely as the event gets closer. The other wildcard here is the idea of a coastal low forming, which if it does, that would lock the cold air in and prolong the ice threat. It's all speculation at this point, and updates will come. Current observations and updates are on The Wall 24/7 PTW continues because of the people |
Mike Haggett
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