A few frosted flakes before we turn into one The National Weather Service offices in Gray and Caribou have posted advisories and warnings for the storm that will arrive Sunday evening and end Monday morning. I know a certain segment of the population is excited about snow, but unless I live in Washington County, I would keep my expectations guarded. There are several reasons to think it could underpeform, which I will get into.  Folks traveling overnight into Monday morning will be dealing with snow falling heavily at times, with gusty winds blowing it around and causing whiteout conditions. The Weather Prediction Center’s Winter Storm Severity Index highlights MidCoast and DownEast regions in the “moderate” impact area. Due to the fluffy nature of the snow, it will be extra greasy due to the ice content. Roads treated with calcium chloride should fair better than those with traditional rock salt, but with the wind causing snow to blow around, this will be a challenge for the road crews to keep up with not only during the storm but also in the aftermath as the breeze continues through the day.  Sunday 4 PM (21z) to Monday Noon (17z) – Looking at 1-hour snowfall amounts based on a 10:1 snow-to-water ratio from the 06z (1 AM) Sunday NAM3km model. Given the dry, fluffy nature of the snow, the cold air around, and the low dewpoints in the single digits for the interior to the low 20s for the shorelines, the ratios will likely range from 15 to 20:1, which essentially increase from 50 to 100% what you see here. There is a good chance for 1” an hour snowfall rates for southwestern areas over into central areas and potential for 2” an hour rates for Washington County. This is a fast-moving storm, with most of the heavy accumulation occurring in a 6—to 8-hour window.  The system's track around the benchmark location of 40°N/70°W south of Nantucket, heading to hit the nose of Nova Scotia, cuts down on snowfall for the Quebec border region and cheats the ski hills. On that track, DownEast areas are clearly in the jackpot region. Due to the wind, this storm will be tough to measure accurately. Some open areas will look like nothing happened, and others, more protected from the wind, will look like they got dumped on. In Washington County, one to two feet of drifts are possible. Temperature and outlook through the weekOutside of the deep cold and bitter wind chill the region will be dealing with, the Quebec border region and the mountains get periodic snow showers that will bring some charity flakes to the ski hills as reinforcing waves of cold work in. Wind chill values in the -35° to -10° range can be expected Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with -25° to around 0° for Thursday morning. There is storm potential in the Friday to Saturday window as the cold air retreats and upper-level ridging tries to work in, but confidence is low in that idea for now.   The Weather Wall covers it all 24/7 PTW... powered by people and businesses that support it Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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