Active pattern through the week Temperatures will be relatively cool on Monday ahead of an occluding frontal boundary. This boundary will move into the region early in the day on Monday, bringing bands of showers to the western and northern parts of the state. Any showers associated with this will be based on the amount of convection taking place during the day. Local downpours related to this system have the potential to cause isolated flash flooding. This front will move out of the region on Monday night, with ridging building into the region for Tuesday. This will set up a string of warm days, with areas away from the coast seeing highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Humid conditions will also build into the end of the week, with the highest dew points expected on Friday (70-75º). Another cold front will move through late in the week, bringing the chance for showers on Thursday and Friday. Confidence in the timing and strength of this front is low, although the humid conditions forecasted in current models would provide a suitable environment for storm development. Drier weather looks to return behind the front for the weekend, with more seasonable temperatures and dew points. Marginal risk for isolated flash flooding on Monday Storms are expected to track slowly across the region Monday, with large amounts of moisture in the area ahead of the front. As a result, the WPC has issued a Day 2 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across northwestern parts of the state due to the risk of isolated flash flooding from local downpours, especially in areas where storms train and repeat. Stay weather-aware and ensure you have multiple ways to receive alerts, allowing you to take action if necessary.  Sunday 10 PM to Tuesday 3 AM - A weakening frontal boundary will move into the region early on Monday, bringing the chance for showers and storms throughout the day. The airmass ahead of the front will be moist (dew points approaching 70°), providing a relatively good environment for storm development. Storms will be primarily concentrated in the north and west of the state, with the best chance for thunderstorms coming in the afternoon. Storms are not expected to be severe, although some regions may experience locally heavy rainfall due to significant moisture A sea breeze will develop in the afternoon, shielding the coast from thunderstorms, but a rumble overnight is possible. Summer steam returns midweek A ridge building behind the front will help temperatures heat up into the middle of the week. Temperatures are expected to peak Wednesday, with highs in the south in the upper 80s to low 90s, and dew points approaching 70º. This heat, coupled with humidity, will bring heat indices to uncomfortable levels in the mid-90s. A sea breeze developing along the coast in the afternoon will help keep temperatures cooler. Skies are also expected to be sunny across the region with light winds. Dew point temperatures are expected to continue building into the end of the week, with peak dew points in the low to mid-70s on Friday. Outlook into next weekend On Thursday, another cold front is expected to move into the region, bringing the chance for storms. While the exact timing is uncertain, this far out, high humidity values across the state would provide ample moisture for storm development. Since confidence in exact timing is low, stay tuned for more information as we move closer to Friday. Another ridge taking hold over the region looks to bring dry, seasonable temperatures to the area this weekend. High temperatures are expected to reach the low 80s south of the mountains, and the mid-70s to the north. Dew points are also anticipated to be more comfortable, only peaking in the low 60s. A few pop-up showers are possible in the afternoon with enough convective heating, but we are currently too far out to make any guarantees. Temperature outlook through Saturday Today's update prepared by Michigan State student intern |
Mike Haggett
|
