Before I get into this, I want to give heartfelt thanks to those who have financially contributed this week. As discussions continue as to the timing of my retirement from the day job and transition into PTW as a full-time entity, the influx of support from first-time donors was great to see. While it was a very good week for fundraising, I am only at about 20% of my goal of where I need to be to fund 2025 and to take the leap of faith to give up the day job. Whether it’s $5, $50, or $500, it all adds up. I appreciate your trust in me. The messages of how the work I do here has made a difference in your life and your business are a blessing to see. That is what it is all about.
A southerly wind flow develops today as surface low pressure to the south heads northward. This will bump the dew point temperatures up as the day progresses, but the humidity level stays comfortable for most areas. Smoke from the Canadian wildfires continues to dim the sky. Clouds increase over the north in the morning as a weak disturbance passes through southeastern Quebec but should clear out by afternoon. Southern and eastern areas see clouds increase in the afternoon as the ocean low tracks to the north. With the southerly flow adding moisture to the air column, the shorelines can expect fog to roll in toward evening, with the potential for drizzle breaking out heading into the overnight. Temperatures rise a bit warmer than Saturday, with most areas away from the shorelines reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Rex block pattern brings a damp day to start the week
This summer's overall weather pattern has been blocky as the transition from the moderate El Niño of winter has entered neutrality. This has brought back the strong offshore ridging, which has kept the region hot and humid. With the days getting shorter, cold air is brewing to the north and is setting up a more zonal flow closer to the pole. This knocks the offshore ridge down to a more traditional Bermuda High setup, which is what the region will be dealing with for the first couple of weeks of August.
Within the ridging to the west and east, with only a slight deviation of atmospheric heights, is all it takes for a weak disturbance to form, and this is what happened Friday night into Saturday offshore of the Carolinas. A weak upper low has developed into what is meteorologically known as a rex block. The surface low that developed as a result of it is headed toward the region. With all of the blocking around it, the lifespan of the low is rather short lived as the main energy source gets cut off. The result is light showers, drizzle, and fog for all but the north to start the week.
A surface map loop from the Weather Prediction Center from Sunday morning to Tuesday morning shows the ocean low entering the region and weakening as it does, indicated by the occlusion. As the weak low runs into the ridge advancing from the west, it gets absorbed by the approaching frontal boundary entering into the Great Lakes by Tuesday.
This activity kicks off what appears to be an unsettled week ahead, with the increase of humidity and daily chances for showers and storms. A warm front is expected to move in on Wednesday, and that needs to be kept in mind for a strong to severe storm threat.
With the surface low weakening and the moisture hose cut off, not much in the way of rainfall is expected. Northern areas may see some light amounts of rainfall heading into Monday night, but for most areas, what precipitation comes will be down by midday on Monday.
Unsettled pattern through next weekend appears likely
While I don’t expect any days that will be a complete washout, I do expect the daily threat of showers and storms to persist through the next seven days or more. For those who are camping or for those agricultural types trying to figure out watering amounts, keep in mind that the risk of dumpers increases through the week associated with the high dewpoints. Folks along the sea breeze front are on daily watch for activity heading into the middle part of the week and into next weekend. The Bermuda High is going to be the key feature to contend with in the time ahead. We’ll have to keep an eye out for tropical trouble as the stubborn high could steer something up this way. Sleepless nights for those without air conditioning are coming back and will persist. There is still plenty of summer left to go.
Stay tuned.
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NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.
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Mike Haggett
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