Those lazy, hazy, crazy warm fronts... Before I get into it, a bit of history to discuss. It’s not very often that parts of Maine end up in the “Enhanced Risk” severe weather level issued by the Storm Prediction Center. The last time that happened was June 30, 2021. A question asked by a long-time follower on the Twitter / X feed had me inquire into that outbreak to refresh my memory of how that played out. A severe watch was issued south of the mountains to Bar Harbor that day. Storm reports from the Gray and Caribou weather offices indicated forty reports of wind damage, five reports of hail (largest in Sharon, NH, at 1¾”), and a wind gust of 81 mph recorded on the Cranberry Isles. Fourteen severe thunderstorm warnings were issued that day, along with five marine warnings. It was a busy afternoon.  I mentioned in Saturday’s post that this is a conditional threat, which still rings true. Warm fronts are fickle and can never be trusted. Guidance tends to underperform them in winter and overperform them in summer. The one key ingredient necessary for a widespread severe outbreak… is sunshine. There is no doubt that New Hampshire has a better chance of the forecast validating, and SPC thinks so given the ominous outlook for the risk of damaging wind (30%) and tornadoes (10%) covering roughly 90% of the state. That threat trickles into extreme western Maine.  The heavy rain element is more of a concern for northern Maine and areas north of the mountains in western areas. A general idea of rainfall runs 2-3” in the slight risk region, which could wash some trails out, erode the tote roads, and bring urban impacts. For the marginal risk areas, which cover the rest of the state, that is the warm front element of downpours associated with thunderstorms. Conditions and timing Dew points need to be in the high 60s to 70s for a severe outbreak to occur. As the warm front moves north, humidity levels are expected to increase to that range over southwestern areas, making the air soupy and uncomfortable. A southerly breeze helps to add moisture everywhere. Areas that see temperatures hang in the 60s can’t expect much in the way of atmospheric drama, outside of heavy rain at times and perhaps some non-severe thunder.  Sunday 6 AM to Monday Midnight – The first round of showers work through the state in the morning, and then the lull comes for southwestern areas. That lull is the key. Depending on how much cloud debris is around from the rains earlier in the day will dictate how the afternoon plays out. The bottom line is that if the sun comes out, the thunder guns will likely come with it. If the clouds hold, that lessens the threat but may not eliminate it completely, given that plenty of convective energy aloft could ignite storms. After sunset, there could be overnight showers with rumbles into the wee hours of Monday morning. What to do in case of a tornado warning Your basement or cement crawl space is safe in case of a tornado warning. If neither is an option, retreat to a room without windows and bring a mattress for protection. Stay in that location until the tornado threat has ended. Please respect the danger. Stay in place and ride it out from your location. Quick outlook through midweek Monday Midnight to Tuesday Midnight – Showers and rumbles exit to the east in the wee hours. The coastal plain stays dry outside of a chance shower through the morning, while showers pop at times over the north and mountains. A cold front passes through in the afternoon, bringing the risk of showers and isolated storms into the evening. Tuesday – Showers appear likely to start the day over central and eastern areas and taper off in the afternoon. Wednesday - Temperatures and humidity rise again, which brings another chance for strong to severe storms in the region. Stay tuned for updates.  Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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