November now acting as it should As we head into the month's final week, the weather pattern is acting like it should for the time of year. With Thanksgiving as late as it could be on the calendar this year, it makes the holiday vulnerable to storms, and we definitely have something to watch. The cold air is settling in for the time being, which brings the threat of snow and junky mix away from the shorelines, and that is in the offing for the week ahead. The annual meeting of the summer tires club could not come at a worse time with the long weekend ahead. For those needing to put winter rubber on their vehicles, I humbly suggest you get on the stick and do it. Expect automotive repair shops to be very busy in the coming days. Upper low hangs over the Maritimes through Monday Sunday 6 AM (11z) to Monday 7 AM (12z) – The storm to the region's northeast has become vertically stacked and is slowly weakening since it has reached the point of occlusion. It’s a strong storm and will pinwheel waves of upper-level energy through the state during the day. This keeps the snow machine going over the mountains and north, with a risk of rain showers over the southwest interior and eastern areas. This is expected to continue through the evening and into early Monday. As the storm crawls towards Newfoundland, the moisture shuts off for most areas, but the higher elevations may see snow showers continue until around midday on Monday before a pause in the action occurs. Snow amounts could fall in the 1-3" range for north and the mountain valleys, with potential for 4-8" for the summits before it is over. I see my ski followers smiling.  Sunday 6 AM (11z) to Monday 7 PM (00z Tuesday) – Windy conditions with the proximity of the system nearby will be the main concern for most areas given the threat of isolated power outages. Wind gusts in the 25-45 mph (50+ hills) are certainly possible through Sunday and will slowly diminish by Monday evening. With the wind comes the wind chill, which will knock 10-15° off the actual temperature, making it feel like 20s for the interior and 30s along the shorelines during the day, and will feel like teens and 20s overnight into Monday. Icy start potential for the western interior Tuesday Tuesday 1 AM (06z) to Wednesday 7 PM (00z Thursday) – Low pressure passes through southern Ontario up through the St. Lawrence River valley as an inside runner. Cold air lingering from Monday entrenches itself in the valleys of the western mountains and foothills and sets up a cold air damming situation. The consensus of ideas has elevated the amount of potential liquid associated with the system to roughly ½” across much of the area. The sum of all of that concerns me about freezing rain hanging on for a while over southwestern areas as models consistently underestimate the low-level cold washing out. My main concern is for travel, as ice accretion on tree limbs should be limited and minimize the power loss threat that way. The mountains and north could pick up another 1-3” of snow, perhaps up to 4-5” on the taller ski hills. The wind factor appears minimal with this being a weak system. Storm to watch late week Guidance is coming into a slightly better agreement with the storm on its way later in the week. However, there remains a variation on when it arrives and the track it will take. There is the potential for this to start Thanksgiving afternoon over the south and west, which is concerning for travel, especially for the interior. The storm track north of benchmark “B” 40°N / 70°W makes it a Gulf of Maine storm, which brings snow to the interior, along with the threat of a junky mix closer to the coast. Many questions remain to be answered here, but it would be wise to expect travel impacts and the potential for power outages from heavy, wet snow and wind as you prepare for the holiday. Stay tuned!   Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
|
