Living on the edge While I gather and process data while nursing hot coffee at the "Oh God, no!" wee hours of the morning, songs come into mind. This classic from Aerosmith was played on repeat. Maine is on the edge of the storm off the coast of the Carolinas. Two upper-lows are caught up in a towering eastern ridge quagmire, which is like a pair of cats trying to fight their way out of a large trash bag. One of them gets out first, and the low to the west of the region at the start of Sunday is likely to be the one that wins out. The shorelines get the brunt of this one There are no changes in my thinking from yesterday's post. The National Weather Service offices in Gray and Caribou have posted a high surf advisory and a high rip current statement. The NWS Boston has issued a coastal flood statement, and I suspect one will also be issued along the Maine and New Hampshire shorelines. The southwest coast experiences higher seas due to the prevailing wind direction. Moderate beach erosion is possible, along with splashover along the seawall and minor flooding in low-lying areas.  Along the shorelines is where the breeze will be more stout. Flying tree debris and limbs may impact our weak power grid, causing isolated power outages, with the best chance along the southwest shorelines. The breeze slowly diminishes as the storm moves east Monday night into Tuesday. The south gets the most rainfall Sunday Noon (16z) to Tuesday 8 AM (12z) - One-hour rainfall amounts from the NAM3km model indicate the risk of showers over York County Sunday afternoon. The steadier precipitation moves in on Monday morning and slowly expands northward as high pressure moves to the east. Showers are expected to taper off from west to east on Tuesday.  This system will be fighting dry air the whole way. I've been stating here for the past couple of days that this is a trap storm given the dynamics, which has me conservative with rainfall estimates. The one upside is that the easterly wind direction off the ocean will draw in moisture, but it may be battling with dry pockets aloft. If the storm system jogs a bit north, it will bring more rainfall. If high pressure flexes itself and slows down its easterly progress, less rain will fall. This represents a two-day total, as shown here. Light showers with pockets of steadier rain are expected, accompanied by areas of fog and drizzle along the coast. Statewide emergency service when you need it Temperatures and outlook Since the storm is embedded in the ridge, it may take some time to depart. The pattern appears unsettled through Thursday with the risk of a shower possible for the mountains and north. Friday appears dry. Northern areas may experience showers on Saturday and Sunday as outflow from a developing inside runner approaches from the west. Inside runners are good for bringing heavy rain and wind. Given the extreme drought, we could certainly use a few systems like this. We'll see.  The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support keeps the lighthouse lit |
Mike Haggett
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