Temperatures and humidity begins to drop A cold front is slowly crawling through the region, drifting to the southeast. To the north, cooler temperatures and drier dew points begin to filter into the state. It will be another warm and rather humid day for areas south and east of the mountains through the day, with more comfortable air arriving in the evening. Fire danger is a growing concern statewide. There have been several reports of wildfires to the north and south, and there will be more in the coming days. God bless the first responders, and you are being prayed for.  Thursday Noon to Friday 1 AM - Short-term models and precipitation have been like a whoopee cushion recently. At the onset of their 48- or 60-hour outlook, the show signs of a chance for decent pockets of rainfall. As the time gets closer, their ideas deflate like a loud Bronx cheer. While locally heavy rain and a chance for a storm are possible, most areas will escape without a drop. With the moisture sealed off to the southwest, the juice is drained by the time frontal boundaries arrive on the coast. Any storms that form may have gusty winds to accompany them, and the severe risk is very low. If you get rain today, go get a lottery ticket. It's your lucky day. No change on rain chances for Sunday The north and mountains have the best chance for rainfall on Sunday as the next cold front passes through the region, with lesser amounts to the east and a chance of a sprinkle for the south. This drought is going to get ugly, and quick. Conserve your groundwater resources. Seriously. Erin on the radar screen I have added a link to the tropics on the PTW Weather Wall page, as we could see some impact from Erin. Anytime a storm, and specifically a potential major hurricane, splits the uprights between the East Coast and Bermuda, shoreline impacts are likely, and it's a "stay tuned" situation for any other drama. I do not trust any ideas beyond five days at this point. I am watching the track of this storm more attentively at the early stages, as I am very curious about the impact of the lack of upper-air data from the north and west due to staff reductions with the National Weather Service. Model ideas at this point have an upper-level trough entering the region from the northwest to shove the storm out to sea. Operational ideas are as comical as a ride on the subway. As the plate of spaghetti indicates above, there is a wide range of track ideas, and most predict an intense hurricane. While the ideas are southeast of the benchmark 40° N / 70° W point south of Nantucket, the outliers to the west are close enough to warrant paying close attention.  Tuesday 8 PM (00z Wednesday) to Sunday 8 PM (00z Monday) - Knowing full well how our shorelines were blasted in the January 2024 storms has me pass this idea along for those with property or interest along the coast. High surf, beach erosion, and dangerous rip currents are the likely solution based on this idea, with impacts first felt on Wednesday and then lingering into the weekend. The bottom line is that if the storm slows down, it could draw closer to the region. A more progressive speed increases the likelihood of it going further out to sea. It will depend on how the storm engages with high pressure over the Atlantic. Storms expand in size at the higher latitudes, and the loop here does a good job of indicating that. Stay tuned.  Temperature outlook through Wednesday The PTW Weather Wall updates 24/7 Your financial support is needed and appreciated for 2026 |
Mike Haggett
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