 THURSDAY… With the upper low backing in further to the southwest, rain and storm chances increase over western areas of the state. Since short-term models have been a gong show lately, I’ve tinkered with the daily graphic a bit to indicate a better chance for activity. The risk for activity rises in the afternoon into the evening. Much like Wednesday, wildfire smoke plays a role in the outcome as that may stun shower and storm development. Air quality is forecast to be unhealthy over the north and moderate over the south.  The cold pool aloft sets up steep low-level lapse rates, and with dew points in the 60s, it won’t take much sun for convection to take place. Loud thunderstorms containing the threats of damaging wind, hail, frequent lightning, and downpours are possible. Driving could be a challenge in areas for the evening commute. Showers and storms end by around sunset. THURSDAY NIGHT… Where rain falls later in the day, expect areas of fog to break out heading into the overnight. Shoreline areas also have a chance for fog in the usual locations (MidCoast, Penobscot Bay, DownEast) with the dew points up. Overnight low temperatures range from the mid-50s north to the low 60s for the coast. FRIDAY… Northern and eastern areas have a better chance of sun, while the south and west have a mix of sun and clouds. The mountains and north may see a shower and/or a storm, while the rest of the region appears to stay dry. Smoke plays a role again in how that plays out. High temperatures appear to be mainly in the 70s, but an 80° reading is possible for interior southwestern areas. THE WEEKEND … A ridge from the west slowly moves into the region starting Saturday to push the upper-low along. Showers and storms are possible over western areas in the afternoon as a weak area of low pressure over the Great Lakes moves east. Isolated showers are possible on Saturday night. Sunday is a bit of a question mark as the ridge stalls out. Ideas currently favor the risk of a shower/storm over the south and west on Sunday afternoon. This stall out set the stage for…  ERNESTO… While forecast confidence in the track beyond Saturday remains in question, confidence is increasing that the storm will stay far enough to the east that it may only impact the Maine shorelines. The US Navy graphic does a great job showing the wind radii forecast as the storm becomes larger as it reaches higher latitudes. A long wave swell will arrive on the shorelines starting Saturday, and dangerous rip currents will develop along the beaches. As the storm passes east Sunday into Monday, astronomical high tides come into play. While their height won’t be the level the area experiences in the winter, waves upwards of ten feet will be enough to cause areas of splashover and perhaps minor flooding in the usual sensitive low-lying areas. The highest tides roll through during the overnight hours. Expect the surf and rip threat to continue but gradually diminish on Tuesday before settling out on Wednesday. For the latest on Ernesto, please follow the National Hurricane Center.  Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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