Thursday August 28, 2025

8/28/2025

Before I begin, a few programming notes. After the Labor Day weekend passes, I will switch to storm watch/impact weather mode and post updates periodically. I haven't missed a morning update in months, and I'm exhausted. I have a trip planned with my wife to celebrate our 27th wedding anniversary later this month, where I will be taking a few days off. Winter is coming, and I need to rest up and get ready for those 1-1:30 AM wake-ups and 3-4 hour sleep nights.

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Fire danger concerns for areas
that have missed the recent rainfall

With high pressure sliding eastward and a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest, a southerly breeze develops, and could get gusty for the southwest coast over to Penobscot Bay in the afternoon. Dew points in the 30s & 40s will dry out the rains of yesterday and earlier in the week. The wildfire threat remains high, but some help is on the way.

Showers with the risk of a gnarly storm on Friday

Friday, 8 AM to Saturday, 2 AM - Keeping watch on the trough and developing upper low, and how guidance is handling it, gives me some guarded optimism for some areas to receive rainfall. With the busy holiday weekend, folks camping out & grilling, any amount of moisture to knock down the wildfire threat is helpful.

Showers with a storm are possible over western and southern areas by noon and will expand to the northeast, reaching Bangor and the eastern regions of The County by mid-afternoon. Showers become widely scattered later in the day as the atmosphere cools and quells the convective threat.

This is a potluck setup, so take this model idea with a grain of salt. Precipitable water values nudge upwards to 1¼", which does present the idea of quick-hitting downpours. Cold air moving in aloft brings the risk of gusty winds and small hail. I can't completely rule out the risk of a low-end severe threat, but it all depends on cloud cover. Frequent lighting and loud rumbles of thunder are also possible. Stay aware and be on alert.

DownEast areas are on track to get shut out from any precipitation from this system. With southerly winds increasing ahead of the front, wildfire danger will be elevated in that area.

A few showers are expected for Saturday
for the north & mountains

Saturday Midnight (04z) to Sunday Midnight (04z) - A look at the 700mb "moisture level" of the atmosphere at roughly 10,000 feet shows the upper low becoming vertically stacked as indicated by the dry slot working into the core and weakening it. As the system slowly spins its way across the region with the moisture hose cut off, this idea presents isolated showers/sprinkles for the higher elevations and the north, with dry air over the south and east.

Temperatures and outlook through Wednesday

After the round of showers on the way Friday and Saturday, it could be next weekend before the next chance for rain comes. Dry conditions with a gradual warm up of temperatures starts on Sunday and continues into the week.

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- Mike

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NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you