 A look at the weather bulletins as of 5 AM Thursday indicates a Winter Weather Advisory for light icing potential for the north and east Friday morning. While the precipitation amounts have decreased, cold air damming at the low levels will do what it feels like and set up areas of patchy freezing rain or drizzle. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the southern coast with astronomically high tides with the full moon. Expect that to run with the higher of the two tides into the weekend. While the wave activity has been rather gnarly as of late with offshore activity, that will settle down gradually heading into early next week. The elevated fire threat continues as the wind picks up again and the breeze appears to be an issue well into next week. An already concerning situation is expected to get worse as far as that goes. Highs and lows, highs and lows, and Maine gets screwed It is as comical as it is sad that with all of the activity around us currently and that will develop in the next day or so, it won’t be able to work itself in and give the region the soaking rain that it desperately needs. With a pair of surface highs ganging up to the west that will split off the moisture flow and another area to our south that is blocking the edge, most of the region stays dry out of this, and what precipitation comes amounts to pocket change paying the debt on a maxed out credit card. Retrograding low brings in a bit of ice and rain FRIDAY 1 AM (06Z) to SATURDAY 1 PM (18Z)—The NAM3km model idea, looking at future radar, likely makes this look worse than how it will play out. With all the dry air around, I suspect much of what this shows may not reach the ground, what is meteorologically known as virga (evaporation). I am showing this to emphasize the role of cold air damming and the threat of light icing. If you are new to this page and want to educate yourself more about cold air damming and how it can make models and forecasters look like complete fools, I wrote a detailed piece about it that can be viewed by clicking here. Please pay close attention to the temperature. A reminder that vehicle thermometers could vary as much as 5° from surface temperatures. Roads are untreated. The potential for slick spots is there. Friday appears to bring a better chance for precipitation. As the low near Cape Breton gets shoved to the east by the surface highs moving in, precipitation chances recede into Saturday with just isolated activity for the north and mountains.  The forecast for total liquid out of this event is on a drier trend as it gets closer. It’s painful to see that Newfoundland could get 2-3” of rain, and we get chump change here. That is the way it goes. Another light precipitation event is on the way for Monday. Long-term ideas point to a beneficial rain event next weekend; they said about this weekend a week ago. We can only hope that idea holds up. Stay tuned. Temperature outlook through midweek   Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay aware, stay on alert, and stay safe. - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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